Congress Party, Haryana debacle and the Polls in Jharkhand and Maharashtra | P. S. Jayaramu

21st October, 2024

After the Diwali festivals start again the elections festival, a continuing phenomenon in India amidst the BJP’s cry for ‘One Nation One Election’(ONOE). I intend to discuss here the humongous problems faced by the grand old Congress after its shocking defeat in Haryana and the way it should brace itself to fight the assembly elections in Jharkhand and Maharastra, for which the process has begun.

First let me briefly deal with the lessons which the Congress Party should learn after the Haryana debacle. At the very outset, it needs to be reiterated that in Haryana there was an overdependence on one family, the Hooda family, and the votes of one community, the Jats. Though Kumari Selja, a Dalit leader and a member of the Lok Sabha was unhappy with the Party high command’s dependence on the Hooda family, she failed to press the issue to the level it was expected. Probably because, she also thought the Party would come to power and she would press for leadership changes etc, later. That was a mistake on her part as well as that of the Party’s top brass. In fact, I would go a step forward and say that the central leadership of the Party miserably failed to realise that over dependence on the Jat votes was not the right thing to do if it wanted people’s mandate, as the community counts for only 40 percent of the State’s population. Furthermore, it must be remembered that the President of the Party, Mallikarjun Kharge, is only a figure head, unable to take any decision on his own unless it is endorsed by the defacto President of the Party Rahul Gandhi. On his part, Mr Gandhi was unable to read the intricacies of the factors that woul greatly detetermine the poll outcome and took a back seat in crucial issues, except for leading the campaign in full vigour. The result was the defeat faced by the Party at the hands of the BJP which micromanaged everything from the distribution of tickets among the non-Jat community, succeeding in convincing the voters that if the Congress comes to power, the future of Jatsts would be in jeopardy and last but not the least, the many resources it commanded, including bringing the voters to the booth on the voting day meticulously.

Jharkhand Polls:

It is hoped that the Congress high command would learn lessons from the Haryana debacke and project itself in a determined manner to face the Polls in Jharkhand and Maharashtra. In the outgoing Jharkhand assembly, the JMM had contested 40 seats and won 30 seats, while the Congress had contested 43 seats and was victorious in 16 of them. This time round the JMM and the Congress have decided to contest 70 seats, leaving11 seats to the RJD and the Left Parties, both of whom are unhappy with the decision. At the time of writing, it is not clear in how many constituencies Congress would put up candidates. That apart, going by the problems faced by the JMM led by the chief minister Hemant Soren, after the exit of Champai Soren and his joining the BJP, the JMM vote is likely to be divided with Chamapai Soren being the BJP candidate in the fray. Additionally, the tribal leader and former BJP chief minister Babulal Marandi too is likely to take away a good chunk of the tribal votes. Under such circumstances, the Congress Party may do well not only to demand a higher number of seats for itself, but put up winnable tribal leaders in the elections. It is not clear, as of now, of the details being chalked out by the Congress high command as well as the State lesdership. The Party should come up with a liberal package for the tribals in its manifesto and carry out an effective campaign to promote tribal development and preservation of tribal identities.

Maharashtra Elections:

At the time of writing (21st October) the seat sharing arrangements in the Maharastra Vikas Agadi ( MVA) have not been finalisted, with talks between the Uddhav Sena and the Congress Party, as the talks have failed as the Uddhav Thackery-led UBT is said to be willing to give 100 seats to the Congress and 88 to the NCP (SP). Reports have it that be NCP stalwart Sharad Pawar would mediate between the UBT and the Congress Party. While it is expected that there would be hard bargaining among the MVA partners, the ground level popular sentiment is reported to be in favour of the UBT, as the Party lost power and suffered badly on account of BJP’s Party- breaking tactics.

Against the background of a dicey and complex situation coupled with the sympathy factor in favour of the UBT, amidst a clamour for a return to the ‘Maratha Manoos’ identity, the Congress Party faces the stupendous task of being able to understand the ground swell of the popular sentiments and accordingly project its demand for seOne does not know what are the reports of the internal surveys carried out by the Congress Party in the different regions of the State are, as that would be a strong input in its demand for seats, based on winnability prospects. There should also be a cross verification of reports in certain cross section of the Maharashtra electorate that they should give a decisive say to the Congress Party in government formation. The task of electoral management becomes all the more complex given the fact that there are multiple Parties in the fray, with BJP pulling every trick to sway the electoral outcome in its favour, with or without the Shinde Sena.

Electoral arithmetic should be equally be tempered by the issues and campaign strategies of the Congress Party. The state level leadership (which does not carry much credibility) and the central leadership of the Party would have to seriously ponder over the impact of the isues they project among the State electorate which is a mix of farmers and women voters in the rural side as well as the aspirational young voters in the urban/metropolitan constituencies. Rahul Gandhi, who would in all probabilit, be the Party’s chief campaigner has to keep these factors in mind during his campaign trail across the different regions of the State. He would do well not to focus on his anti-Modi, anti-RSS themes ( Maharashtrains have a sympathy for RSS in Nagpur and adjoining regions), but to project the issues of job creation and bridging the urban-rural divide. The focus of campaigng should also be not so much on Adani-Ambani, but about how to use the industry as a vehicle for rural transformation. Issues of climate change, and the need for balancing between infrastructural development with the cardinal requirement of overcoming the disastrous consequences of climate change, should occupy a significant space in both the election manifesto and campaign thrust.

In conclusion, it bears emphasis that the Congress Party and its principal campaigners should consciously bring about a change in their electoral narratives as well as strive for an image makeover in both the Jharkhand and Maharashtra elections to put behind the defeat it suffered in Haryana and, last but not leastt the least, the internal criticisms of it in the INDIA bloc.

(Author: Prof. P. S. Jayaramu is former Dean, Faculty of Arts at Bangalore University and a former Senior Fellow, ICSSR, New Delhi)