Modi and Shah are getting ready to repeat Haryana experiment in Maharashtra and Jharkhand | Arun Srivastava

Just after six months of the Lok Sabha elections, India is having a mini general election in November and this time too it is once again the credibility and image of Narendra Modi that is at stake like earlier, but for different reason. Besides assembly elections to the two states, Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the country will have bypolls in 48 Assembly constituencies and two parliamentary constituencies spread across 15 states.

Though the people of Haryana only a fortnight back had outright rejected the political narrative Rahul Gandhi had tried to set, this would also be a short of referendum for Modi, how the people perceive his coming back to power for third time showing utter disrespect to the peoples’ verdict to keep him out of power. Assembly polls in Maharashtra will be held in a single phase on November 20, while Jharkhand will be held in two phases on November 13 and 20, though the number of seats in Maharashtra are 288 at least three times more than 81 seats of Jharkhand. Maharashtra has also some highly sensitive and hostile Naxalite regions which regularly witness gun battles with the police. No doubt holding of a single phase election puts question mark on the intention of Election Commission and also on Modi.

One aspect of the November election is quite noticeable. In May Modi was specifically fighting his political enemy, true enough not his professional rival, Rahul Gandhi. But the November election is going to be a real battle of supremacy inside the saffron family. It may sound to be loathsome that Modi’s political survival, whether he would continue to call the shots in the saffron ecosystem and remain the prime minister or he would have to say bye to the BJP, will be decided by the electoral verdict of the two states.

Like Modi the political future of Rahul Gandhi is also interwoven with the outcome of the November electoral battle. Of course he would continue to b e the leader of the Congress, but the mission dollar question would is whether he would succeed in commanding the respect from other opposition parties which he now gets. Like the ostensible perception that the future of Congress and especially of Rahul Gandhi is linked to their performance in the assembly elections to Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the future of the RSS and its chief Mohan Bhagwat is also related to it. Modi will not spare any opportunity to dissipate the influence of RSS and Bhagwat.

At the same time a defeat for BJP will strengthen the RSS organisationally and bring back its lost glory. In the Haryana elections the RSS cadres did not participate actively in the electoral process, a large number of cadres and local level leaders preferred to remain inside, but even then BJP, precisely Modi won, using the CEC and state machinery. This time too Modi is completely dependent on Rajeev Kumar’s CEC to win the elections.

With its electoral operation getting a massive success in Haryana, the Rajeev Kumar’s election commission is sure to sweep the elections in these two states and help his political boss to anchor deep and have a strong grip on the saffron ecosystem. Elections to the assemblies for the two states were supposed to be held along with the elections of J K and Haryana. Since the Rajeev’s commission was not sure of the success of its plan that it delayed the elections to Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

Now with accomplishing its mission in Haryana, Rajeev’s CEC is in the enviable position to go ahead with the elections in these two states. Scheduling of the election underlines the nature of its importance. Certainly it is not the numerical gain that weighed while announcing the dates. It is the political importance that reigned supreme.

BJP’s pocketing these two states in its kitty has multidimensional ingress. Modi will be free to turn Maharashtra as the colony of the industrialists from Gujarat. Already most of the important industries are being shifted to Gujarat from Maharashtra. Though using the name of Shivaji, BJP leaders are vehemently trying to identify with the Maratha pride, the people are not in the mood to accept them and their demeanour. They are sceptical of the Maharashtrian BJP leaders. A senior opposition leader from Mumbai drew a parallel with the Mir Zafar of Bengal who had helped East India company to anchor in India. Recent opposition public rallies of Mumbai have sent a strong message that people look at them with scepticism.

The tribals of Jharkhand are sceptical of BJP. They have been witness to the BJP leaders and its government turning the state into a colony of the Gujarati businessmen. Ragubar Das government had used extreme form of coercive method to force the tribals to part with their lands and give that to corporate houses and especially to Adani. Modi is desperate to have his government in Jharkhand so that he can serve the economic interest of Adani. It is a known fact that with Hemant Soren in the seat of chief minister, Modi and Adani are finding it tough to manoeuvre the situations and things according to their wishes.

While electoral victory will simply add to the strength of Modi and Amit Shah, precisely Gujarat lobby, it will also push the RSS and especially its chief Mohan Bhagwat to retreat and stymie his remove Modi mission. Modi will use electoral success to diktat RSS leaders as he has been doing last ten years. Incidentally he will not gain an upper hand in saffron ecosystem, but he would also make the opposition crawl, as was seen before formation of INDIA bloc.

It is a widely known fact that criminal instinct of the BJP leadership that dictates the politics and rules the country. It is obviously quite natural for them to keep a firm grip on the electoral machinery. A close watch on the functioning of Modi would make it abundantly clear that his primary mission is to win the election using any means and have his own men in power in states. He does not believe in the dictum that persons of his own party are to relied in comparison to leaders from other parties switching their loyalties to him irrespective of the existence of the element of dependability and trustworthiness.

Modi has mastered the art to ride on the “power monster” from the days as the chief minister of Gujarat. His resorting to misuse of EVM is the part of the old game. It is really deplorable that the opposition notwithstanding aware of his manipulative skills have been maintaining a passive silence. Rajeev’s CEC played havoc with EVM in Haryana and negated the peoples’ verdict. But ironically instead of making an issue, the opposition, especially the Congress has been groping in the dark. It was lobbying with Rajeev’s CEC which designed the reversal. It expected justice from the person who trampled justice. Strange.

The least to speak about the judiciary is the best. It is very difficult to make the judiciary convince that EVM has been hacked. The judiciary does not find any iota of truth in this allegation. Supreme Court took suo motu cognisance of the case of rape and murder of a woman medic, but it is not willing to look into the trampling of basic rights of the common people and deny them their rights to exercise free and fair voting. Judiciary has its own parameters; allegation must be transparent and clear. It does not take seriously the junior doctors showing their contempt to it by refusing to abide by its orders. But unfortunately is not willing to protect that finger which pressed the button of the EVM exercising its democratic rights.

There is no doubt that with INDIA bloc partners are busy finding fault with the Congress and accusing Rahul for his ineptness in handling the distribution of tickets, would provide enough scope to CEC and Modi to manoeuvre the polling in these elections, especially in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. Taking advantage of their internecine feud Modi may use EVM to his advantage. After all he knows that once the verdict is out nothing could be done. The final verdict can wait for years. By that time, the existing house would complete its tenure, as we have seen in Maharashtra. Supreme Court identified the Eknath Shinde government as illegal. But an illegal government continues to decide the fate and destiny of the common people. It owes to the judiciary losing its will to act.

By and large people mood is against BJP and it got its manifestation during the Lok Sabha election. In that election the BJP manged to get only 9 seats. In the earlier Lok Sabha it had 25 members. The people are angry with BJP and especially Modi. Significantly they are some what sympathetic to Shinde. His Shiv Sena did better than BJP. This is the reason that for assembly election he has staked the claim for 100 seats, which is not acceptable to Amit Shah.

Shah’s move in Jharkhand has also does not appear to be working. How far the rebel Champai Soren factor would work to wreck the JMM boat is not clear. He has an impeccable political track record, but in politics, and particularly during the elections it is the real politics that decides the outcome. Champai has failed to catch the imagination of the poor tribals. Shah has also deputed the Assam chief minister Hemant Vishwa Sharma and union minister Shiv Raj Singh Chauhan for polarising the Hindu votes. But tribals appear to be more inclined to Hemant Soren.

Nonetheless the lurking fear of Modi and Shah manipulating the EVM hangs heavy on the minds of the common people and tribals alike. They are apprehensive of same nature of EVM manipulation as had happened in Haryana. A lawyer of the Ranchi High Court who belongs to the JMM think tank, nurses a strong feeling that they have to foil this attempt of Modi and Shah at any cost and to accomplish the task a massive mobilisation of JMM cadres is imperative.