Individual Priorities over the Party-Defeated Congress in Haryana | S S Sangwan

The euphoria created in favour of the Congress party by vocal voters and the electronic media during the Haryana poll campaign especially after voting on 5 October 2024 was belied by the actual results on 8th October. The exit polls on all channels too predicted around 50 seats for Congress but it turned turtle with seats 48 seats for BJP and 37 seats for the Congress after actual counting. The incorrect estimates of exit polls in the May 2024 Lok-Sabha and Haryana Assembly elections in October prove that the scientific methodology is not adopted in the surveys. I estimated that there would be about 50 seats along with locations for BJP based on my experience. It was published in The Times of India on 27th September 2024. However, the Congress leaders still blame the election process and electronic voting machines instead of introspecting into their mismanagement. My analysis of the assembly-wise voting details from the Election Commission of India indicates that the Congress has misjudged ticket distribution and unified election campaign.

The votes polled by parties, seats won and the margins of victories are given in the Table Party-wise Vote share and margin of Victory in Haryana Polls 2024

Source: Website Election Commission of India. In other Parties AAP got 1.79% and BSP .1.82%

Dynamics of Party wise Votes

The Table shows that Congress’s vote share increased by about 11% over its share in 2019 whereas BJP’s Vote share increased by 3.5 % only. Thus BJP has not only retained its voters but increased its share by attracting some votes of JJP whose many previous MLAs have joined the BJP. Some increase in BJP votes may be due to the joining of Congress leaders like Kuldeep Bisnopi, Kiran Chaudhry and others after polls. JJP could retain only 0.90 % of its votes out of 14.84 % polled in 2019. About 3 % of JJP votes may have shifted to Congress and 3% shared by BJP and INLD whose share also increased by 4.14 % from 2.44 % in 2019. Independents and APP have increased their shares to 11.6 % and 1.79% in 2024 compared to 9.17 % and 0.4% in 2019. Other parties have been almost wiped out. As per feedback from the grassroots, the voters have largely voted on the caste line despite the astounding manifestoes of both parties. One of the largest Scheduled castes has shifted toward Congress but it was partly affected due to its leader Selja’s role during the campaign.

Mystifying Arithmetic of Seats won.

The Table shows that Seats won are 48 by BJP and 37 by Congress. Congress seats are much less than its share in votes. Even the winning margin of the BJP candidates appears higher than the Congress ones. To understand this mystifying arithmatics, let us peep into votes polled by independents and smaller party candidates especially where Congress has lost. As stated earlier, the BJP has kept its voters intact and almost all other candidates have cut into the votes of the Congress. Of the 53 seats lost by Congress and its ally CPM (1) in as much as 25 seats, it was defeated due to votes polled by independents and smaller parties.

Of these 25 seats lost by Congress, four defeats caused due to INLD (Yamunanagar, Faridabad, Barwala & Narwana, three by BSP(Ateli, Asandh, Radaur) and four seats even votes of APP party would have ensured the victory of Dabwali, Rania, Asansh, Pundari and Uchana Kalan). Three seats were comfortably won by independents (Hisar, Bahadurgarh and Ganasur) and in the remaining remaining seats; voters polled by independents votes would have ensured victory of Congress. It reflects poor management by Congress leadership especially at the state level to take along any of the smaller parties and mollify the independents who were mostly from the congress. The underlying reason may be the individual priorities of some leaders over the Party and the inability of national leaders to decide.

Region-wise, Congress has lost the maximum in south Haryana’s Ahirwal and Bangar areas. Hisar is won by Mrs Jindal with the tacit support of the BJP. The win in Loharu by about 700 votes is largely due to individual efforts of the candidate in providing busses and other benefits in the constituency in the last 5 years. Even Congress lost some seats like Kharkhoda, Gohana, Gannuar, Baroda, Sonipat, Rai, Uchna Kalan, and Assandh in its stronghold of central Haryana. Mewat has given full support to Congress but Sohna’s seat was lost due to a strong independent. Thus most of the seats lost by Congress are due to its inability to carry along its leaders like SelJa Kumari, and Virender Singh and tacit support to many of the independents by the state leadership. The individual strong state leader and weak national leader have turned the tables of expected victory over themselves.

Way Ahead

At present, the state leader Bhupender Singh Hooda has the support of as many as 32 of the total 37 MLAs won by Congress, yet his creditability as a state leader is at the lowest ebb. Hence, if the present leadership is at the helm of affairs of the Congress party, it may further deteriorate in the state. Congress may take lessons for other parties to retire its top leadership at a certain age and a leader may not be allowed to hold the same position after two terms.

(Author: S S Sangwan, Former Professor SBI Chair at CRRID, Chandigarh (2012-18) and General Manager NABARD (1983-2008) )