Nuclear Clouds over the Middle East can spread far and wide Collateral damage in Gaza | Arun Mitra

In the ongoing war in the Middle East, news that Iran could think of changing its nuclear doctrine is very disturbing but not unexpected. As the situation is developing in the region such adventurous happenings cannot be ruled out. Former Israeli heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu had in January 2024 renewed the call to use nuclear bomb on Gaza. The defence minister of Israel Yoav Gallant’s statement that Palestinians are “human animals” and his decision to impose a complete siege on Gaza, completely closing it off from basic necessities without which survival is impossible, is gross violation of human rights. These have added fuel to the fire in the existing humanitarian crisis [1]. Such rhetoric will only worsen the already dangerous situation.

Double standards of the major western powers and their lack of willingness to take effective measures to end the war have led to present imbroglio. If there was a conflict between some other countries the UNO would have sent its peace keeping forces by now. But in this case Prime Minister Netanyahu is asking the UN Secretary General to remove UN Peace Keepers from southern Lebanon. He has made complete mockery of the international laws. The US nor any of its allies have condemned Israel on this. Their silence is a tacit justification of genocide by the Israeli defence forces.

As per the reports from the ministry of health in Gaza, over 43000 people have been killed in the disproportionate aggression by the Israeli Defence Forces after the Hamas killed over 1200 Israelis and took over 250 persons as hostages on 7th October 2023. However in an article published in the Lancet on 20th July 2024, Rasha Khatib, Martin Mckee, Salim Yusuf point out that ‘In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death9 to the 37?396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186?000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza. Using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2?375?259, this would translate to 7·9% of the total population in the Gaza Strip’ [2].

‘Large number of people are expected to be buried under the rubble. In addition there would occur indirect deaths due to destruction of health facilities, food distribution systems and other public infrastructure. Situation has become so grave that even if the Gaza war ends immediately, it will continue to cause many indirect deaths in the coming months and years through things like diseases’, the article points out.

After the war on Iraq by the US and allies it became clear that it is not easy to count the dead in the event of war. Iraq war has proven the wars cause collateral damage which is much worse than visible at the time of the war. In the presence scenario it is the civilians who suffer much more than the soldiers in the war times. Since 1990 to 2017 every year 50000 people killed were soldiers while number of non-combatants was one million that is 20 times more.

The world does not have time to waste. Conventional weapons are causing unprecedented damage. In such situation the damage caused by the nuclear weapon would be catastrophic. Studies have shown that even a limited nuclear exchange would put 2 billion people at risk. The civil society has to play its role highlighting the danger that radiation laden dust from the after effects of a nuclear exchange can spread far and wide.

Netanyahu must listen to the people’s voice from across the globe and avoid their curse is the message from Thomas Gould TD member of Irisih parliament who broke down when speaking on the situation in Gaza.

Ehud Olmert Prime Minister of Israel from 2006 to 2009 and Nasser-al-Kidwa foreign affairs minister of the Palestinian National Authority from 2005 to 2006 have on 4th October 2024 called for action to secure a lasting peace — for Israelis, Palestinians and the broader region and have collectively opined necessity of dialogue and suggested solutions. These must be listened to.

Whereas Iran should follow restraint, the present nuclear powers have an opportunity to join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Otherwise they lack moral right to ask others no to build nuclear weapons. Any complacency could be ultimate humanitarian disaster declared the 19th world summit of Nobel Laureates for peace held in Monterrey, 18-21 September 2024.

(Author: Dr Arun Mitra, President - Indian Doctors for Peace and Development (IDPD))