Dissanayake’s NPP suffers shocking blow in Sri Lanka elections | M.R. Narayan Swamy

Just six months after he led his party to an unprecedented two-third majority in Sri Lanka’s parliament, President Anura Dissanayake’s ruling NPP alliance has suffered a major setback in local government elections, an outcome that may put pressure on the Marxist leader to undertake dramatic course corrections.

From a high of 61 per cent votes Dissanayake swept in the November parliamentary battle, the National People’s Power (NPP) slumped to just 43 per cent in the three-tier local body elections held across the country on May 6.

Although the result still puts the NPP far ahead of the fragmented opposition and poses no immediate challenge to the government, it is clear beyond doubt that the ruling alliance – of which Dissanayake’s leftist JVP is the core partner – has suffered a major erosion in public support in a very short period.

“I hate to admit this but the Anura wave seems to have gone,” said a disappointed JVP leader who did not want to be named. He said the JVP was aware there would be a fall in vote share but did not imagine the loss would be this bad.

Worse, voters from Sri Lanka’s Tamil minority also rejected the NPP in a significant way in the island nation’s north and east after rooting for it in the parliamentary election — by again embracing the traditional Tamil parties.

The center-left NPP has come on top in 266 of the 339 local government bodies (ranging from small village-based councils to major municipal councils) nationwide, but it could not get a clear majority in nearly half the places. But the JVP insists that it will take power in all the 266 councils, majority or no majority, and will not ally with any of the national parties rejected by the electorate.

Fortunately for the NPP/JVP, the opposition has not performed too well either although some parties have eaten into the ruling party’s votes.

The main opposition SJB party led by Sajith Premadasa netted 21 per cent of the votes, a marginal improvement over the 17 per cent it got in the November parliamentary contest. The United National Party of former president Ranil Wickremesinghe remains in the dumps. But the SLPP of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, after being routed in the presidential and parliamentary elections last year, has clawed back, gaining nine per cent of the votes.

The SJB managed to capture 13 local councils – a small figure compared to the NPP tally. The UNP and SLPP could win no council.

In contrast, Tamil parties made a huge comeback in Sri Lanka’s north and east, where a separatist campaign lasted for a quarter century until 2009. The most popular Tamil party, known by its acronym ITAK, swept 43 of the 58 councils it contested.

In Jaffna, the Tamil heartland in Sri Lanka’s north where the NPP outshone everyone else in the parliamentary election, the ITAK’s vote share jumped from 19.47 to 31.95 per cent from November 2024 to now. The All Ceylon Tamil Congress saw its votes shoot up in the same period from 8.60 to 18.44 per cent. The NPP vote share fell from 24.85 to 20.45 per cent.

So confident was the NPP of its performance ahead of the May 6 polling that it repeatedly claimed that the outcome of the local body elections would be a referendum on the government of President Dissanayake. Naturally, the results have been a stunner.

Even the worst critics of Dissanayake admit the Marxist has given Sri Lanka a clean government where his ministers and MPs – most of them first-timers — do not demand bribes or expect kickbacks in official contracts. Corruption has been an endemic disease in the country for decades.

So, what led to this tell-tale swing against the NPP and Dissanayake?
Political analysts attribute several reasons, primarily the government’s failure to implement many of the grand promises it made ahead of the parliamentary polls in particular.

Although inflation has given way to deflation, prices of many essential commodities remain high. To cite one example, if petrol cost Rs 121 a liter in 2022, it now sells for Rs 331 a liter. A Colombo resident quoted a daily wage worker as saying that although he earned Rs 3,000 a day, he was hardly able to buy anything apart from the bare minimum necessities for cooking.

“The fact is that millions in this country are still suffering from the economic crisis which hit us two years ago,” said a Colombo-based banker. “If people are not taking to the streets, it is only because hundreds of thousands have left the country to work abroad and are sending remittances which keeps their families somehow going.”

Dissanayake and his fellow JVP leaders had repeatedly told voters that their government would be able to tame the skyrocketing prices and ensure that the people would be able to purchase what they want. The promise was not kept.

There is also widespread anger among the vocal middle class that the government, despite public pledges, has not jailed even one single corrupt politician from the past. And all the promises made to bring back unaccounted wealth supposedly stashed by the corrupt abroad have proved hollow.

Dissanayake had stated even before the presidential election last year – the first popularity test he crossed –that he would rejig the IMF debt restructuring programme so as to undo the painful austerity measures. This not only did not happen but the president took a most unexpected U-turn after coming to control the parliament.

The government did announce a 40 per cent salary increase to the 1.5 million public servants but this did not go down well with the beneficiaries as many found themselves in a higher tax bracket, effectively slashing their promised savings. A cut in overtime allowance paid to government employees added to the mood turning sour.

There is also anger that Dissanayake’s government did noticeable U-turns on issues related to India after railing against the giant neighbour for decades on the very same issues – including a defence pact and an oil container project in Trincomalee.

In Jaffna, a prominent journalist who did not want to be quoted by name said there was anger against the NPP MPs who won in November. “Believe it or not, one of them is called a ‘Rowdy MP’ for his unruly conduct. Most Tamils began to feel they have been taken for a ride by the NPP. Naturally, they returned to the Tamil parties. Most of us expected this to happen.”

Although the NPP and JVP are putting up brave faces publicly, there is a growing feeling that the government will have to take drastic steps to undo the damage it has suffered.

For one, President Dissanayake will have quickly take steps to bring the runaway prices of essential commodities under control. It will also have to rejig its tax policies so that the mass of salary earners feel they are net gainers in terms of income. “It is just not enough to be Mr. Clean, you need to perform too,” said a JVP leader. “Finally, people must benefit materially from your rule. There is no other way.”