How to Prevent the Drift toward High-Risk War Caused by Step-by-Step Escalation | Bharat Dogra

Not all wars are necessarily planned, or even intended by one or more sides. In a situation of already existing mistrust and suspicions, one hostile action can lead to a bigger response from the other country, followed by one more set of counter-responses and before you realize all the implications, the two countries are already drifting towards a high-risk war, a war that is almost certain to cause distress and destruction that will be many times higher than the original incident or even its first-level response and counter-response.

Those involved with conflict resolution and achievement of early peace have to use considerable skills, persuasion and diplomacy to try to clinch early cessation of hostile actions before the situation spins out of control.

In the context of the ongoing clashes involving India and Pakistan the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres had emphasized at a very early stage regarding the need for maximum restraint to prevent the situation from spinning out of control. Unfortunately, the situation has deteriorated further since then.

While the need for early clinching of peace is important in the context of hostilities between any two important military powers, this needs becomes overwhelming when the two powers are nuclear weapon powers, as is the case in the context of India and Pakistan. Experts worldwide agree that war between nuclear weapon wars should never take place.

Hence clearly the case for resolving the ongoing violent conflict between India and Pakistan as early as possible is a very strong one. Preferably the hostilities should not last beyond a week at the most.

For this at least one side, preferably the stronger one, should take the first initiative for peace, and the other side should respond equally peacefully.
If two sides X and Y are involved in the kind of conflict that is now being seen in the context of India and Pakistan, which appears to be moving from one escalation to another in its initial stage, then one of the two sides X can announce a time, a few hours from the announcement, when it will crease all hostile actions and call upon the other power Y also to do so. While announcing this decision this country X should also contact important members of the international community to convey this decision to them. Immediately various members of the international community should convey to the other country Y to respond to this offer in an equally peaceful way by also ceasing all hostile actions beyond this hour. In this way the chain of escalations can be broken so that peace can be clinched at an early stage. Alternatively, the UN Secretary General can speak to both sides to fix an early time when both sides will cease hostile actions, and both sides should agree to this.

Of course the situation can be more challenging and complex than this. At the same time it may be possible to find other and even better means of achieving peace at an early stage that are capable of resolving these more complex challenges too.

What is important to emphasize here is that we should not allow the evolving situation to be pushed only by alleged escalations and counter-escalations. Drifting along these lines can take the two countries to move further and further on the path towards a war that none of the two countries wants, a high-risk war that can cause immense distress and bring unprecedented risks to the people of the two countries and even the wider region.

Hence the wisest leaders and diplomats in the two countries, caught as they are in the middle of the tensions of the escalations and responding escalations, will have to find time and space for something different, a sincere and credible important peace initiative that would be worthy of not just the Nobel Peace Prize but also of saving the sub-continent from the possibility of massive distress and huge risks. These wise leaders, diplomats and generals of both sides should realize that their ultimate commitment is not to war and violence but to ensuring the safety and security of their people, and to reducing their distress and risks, not increasing them.

(Author: Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Protecting Earth for Children, Planet in Peril, A Day in 2071, Earth without Borders and Man over Machine—A Path to Peace)