Myanmar faces manifold crises as military conscription drives mass exodus | Soe Nandar Linn

26 October 2024

Since the 2021 coup, Myanmar has faced a multi-dimensional crisis marked by economic decline, mass displacement and human rights abuses under military rule. In 2024, the military junta introduced forced conscription, targeting men and women of working age, which has prompted a mass exodus, particularly to Thailand. The forced enlistment has worsened the country’s brain drain, impacted key sectors like agriculture and driven businesses to relocate. Myanmar’s humanitarian crisis has also heightened cross-border crime and strained regional stability, while the international legal response remains muted.

Since the 2021 coup, the people of Myanmar have endured a severe economic downturn, human rights violations and mass displacement under the mismanagement of the military junta. The depreciation of the Myanmar kyat against foreign currencies, the outflow of investments and an unstable business environment have all contributed to Myanmar’s economic decline.

The organisation Armed Conflict Location and Event Data documented that 288 out of 330 townships across Myanmar have experienced 12,739 armed conflicts [1] since the coup, with 57,904 civilians killed — 4537 of them by airstrikes and heavy weapons. More than three million people [2] are internally displaced as of August 2024 and about 18 million need humanitarian assistance [3]. The United Nations Development Programme reported that nearly half of the population was living below the national poverty line [4] in 2023, compared to 27 per cent in 2017.

Armed opposition has been intensifying, with the military junta losing control of more than half the country. The military has suffered from a significant number of defections [5], with soldiers leaving to join the resistance or fleeing the country.

Amid these crises and facing a shortage of manpower, the junta activated conscription laws in February 2024. The People’s Military Service Law [6] targets men aged 18–35 and women aged 18–27, while the Reserve Forces Law [7] conscripts veterans. Another order [8] conscripts men up to age 65 to form local militia groups known as public security forces. Through these laws, the junta planned to recruit 12 batches of conscripts annually, with a monthly quota of 5000 recruits per batch. Starting from April, the military began training four batches of conscripts.

Forced conscription has fuelled fears among many in Myanmar, particularly working age young people, who are more likely to be drafted. The economic crisis in Myanmar, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict, has already made it difficult for many families to bear the costs associated with conscription, such as bribes or the loss of income from a family member’s absence. This has led to a massive flow of people fleeing Myanmar, especially to neighbouring Thailand.

After the conscription law was enforced, many young people queued at the Royal Thai Embassy in Yangon to apply for visas [9], while thousands have already crossed the border into Thailand, many of them undocumented. This has exacerbated brain drain, a crisis that started with the coup. The massive outflow of working-age individuals has severely affected all sectors, especially agriculture, leading to food insecurity and rising food costs.

The new law has not only compelled young people to flee the country but has also driven many domestic businesses to sell their assets and relocate to Thailand. In the previous year, Myanmar citizens invested 3.7 billion baht [10] (US$ 111 million) in Thai condominiums, becoming the second-largest buyers after the Chinese. Thailand’s Department of Employment [11] reports that nearly 2.3 million Myanmar migrants [12] had registered by July 2024 but there are still an estimated two million undocumented Myanmar nationals living in Thailand.

In addition to the effects of conscription, the junta’s strict regulations on passport renewal [13] are forcing many living abroad — particularly in Thailand — to become undocumented. Passport renewal is denied to those in Thailand on non-ED visas, a type of visa issued to students attending language schools or non-accredited educational institutions in Thailand. Other regulations include an additional 10 per cent tax on income earned abroad and a mandatory transfer [14] of a quarter of earnings to Myanmar bank accounts through official banking channels.

Since the coup, there have been over 4500 battles in all of Myanmar’s states bordering Thailand, where more than 90,000 refugees [15] have been hosted in nine temporary shelters. In the past three months, 144,000 undocumented migrants from Myanmar have been deported [16] by the Thai authorities. Since Thailand is a non-signatory to the 1952 Geneva Convention relating to the status of refugees, it has no legal obligation [17] to provide protection for refugees.

While there is a risk of forced enlistments in the junta’s armed forces, some deportees may join the resistance forces [18] against the military. These multiple crises in Myanmar have also increased the risk of cross-border crime, including illicit drug trafficking, human trafficking and recently emerging scam factories [19] within the Golden Triangle region.

Undoubtedly, Myanmar’s conscription law has significantly affected both Myanmar and its neighbouring countries [20], particularly Thailand, in terms of humanitarian and security challenges. At present, armed resistance is the only viable path to oppose the military junta. As people are oppressed and forcefully conscripted by the junta, domestic unrest will increase and people will continue to flee.

(Author: Soe Nandar Linn is Doctoral Student at the Centre of ASEAN Community Studies, Naresuan University, Thailand. The views expressed here are solely those of the author)

[The above article from East Asia Forum is reproduced here for educational and non-commercial use]