2024 Assembly Elections: Who will crack Maharashtra? | Thirunahari Seshaiah

After the 18th Lok Sabha elections, assembly elections held in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir, two other states - Maharashtra and Jharkhand - will go to polls in November 2024. In a state like Maharashtra, which is politically and economically strong in the country, elections are considered prestigious and all major parties are engaged in big tussle. In the last five years, the developments in the politics of Maharashtra, the change of governments and the splits in the parties have become a topic of discussion across the country. For almost three decades since 1995, no party has won the 145 seats needed to form a government in Maharashtra. The Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) are the two major political parties in Maharashtra. The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is seeking to regain power in Maharashtra toppling Mahayuti alliance led by BJP.

Will the BJP-led Mahayuti coalition retain power?

In 2022, the Maha Vikas Aghadi government in Maharashtra collapsed after a split in the Shiv Sena and the Maha Yuti government was formed with the backing of the BJP, with Shiv Sena splinter group leader Eknath Shinde as the Chief Minister. If the BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP alliance is to retain power in Maharashtra, it will have to retain the 105 seats it won in the last Assembly elections along with Shindes Sena and Pawar’s NCP showing new gains. BJP and Shiv Sena contested 2019 Maharashtra Assembly elections together and won 161 seats. Shiv Sena had won 56 seats. Though the BJP formed the government under the leadership of Fadnavis, it failed to keep up the promises it made to Shiv Sena and it led to Shiv Sena leaving alliance and forming a Government with the Congress.

The BJP’s victory in the upcoming Maharashtra assembly elections with two splinter parties is not an easy walk. The BJP failed to perform well in the last Lok Sabha elections. Out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the BJP won only 17. In Mumbai, the BJP and the Shiv Sena (Shinde) won one Lok Sabha seat each. If the BJP is not able to retain power in north Maharashtra, which has 47 assembly seats in Konkan, Thane and Mumbai regions out of 75 assembly seats, then it will be almost impossible for the Mahagathbandhan to come to power in Maharashtra. Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), which won just one Lok Sabha seat in the last Lok Sabha elections, has been given more than 50 assembly seats in this assembly election. The Mahayuti alliance is confident that the welfare schemes like Ladki Bahin Yojana, Annapurna Yojana, Bijli Sawalat Yojana, Yuva Karya Shikshan Yojana, fee payment for girls will be successful in garnering votes for them.

MVA and its strategy of alliances

After the 2019 Maharashtra Legislative Assembly elections, the political developments in Maharashtra took many twists and turns. Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena formed the Maha Vikas Aghadi and formed the government in Maharashtra with Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray as Chief Minister. The Maha Vikas Aghadi government lost power in 2022 after a split in the Shiv Sena. The Shiv Sena and the NCP, the two constituents of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), have parted ways, with a majority of MLAs, MPs and party leaders deserting the alliance. Former chief minister Ashok Chavan, ex-Union minister Milind Deora, Sanjay Nirupam and late Baba Siddique were among those who switched over to the Congress.

The victory of the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance in the last Lok Sabha elections in 30 Lok Sabha seats will give confidence to the alliance in the Maharashtra Assembly elections as Vikas Patil, who won as an independent candidate from Sangli, joined the Congress. If the NCP retains its hold in western Maharashtra, the Congress in Vidarbha and the Uddhav Thackeray-Shiv Sena alliance in Mumbai, the prospects of the alliance will improve.

Will smaller parties be decisive?

Apart from smaller parties like Prakash Ambedkar Vanchit Vikas Aghadi, MIM, Raj Thackeray MNS, Samajwadi Party, Maratha Reservation Porata Samiti leader Manoj Jaranga Patil ,few of the independents are also expected to be a decisive force in the Maharashtra assembly elections. 13 independents have won in the last assembly elections and more than 20 independents are likely to win in the upcoming assembly elections.

EPILOGUE —

The assembly elections in Maharashtra are going to be a challenge for the political existence of Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar and a matter of prestige to Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray. The elections will also decide the political future of upcoming leaders like Aaditya Thackeray and Supriya Sule. If the results of the Lok Sabha elections are repeated, the Mahavikas Aghadi alliance is likely to get a positive result . . Political issues are likely to dominate the elections in Maharashtra rather than a tussle between better governance . The Loksabha election election results have shown a trend where Maha vikas aghadi have shown its dominance in 151 assembly segments and Maha gathbandhan in 128 assembly segments.Although it’s the magic of elections that public opinion sways rapidly sometimes in an overnight.The results of the Maharashtra elections will definitely have an impact on the upcoming assembly elections in Bihar and Delhi

(Author: Assistant professor and political analyst, Department of Economics, Kakatiya University, Warangal, Telangana State. Email: tseshu87[at]gmail.com)