2024 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections: Will Emotional Campaigning and Populist Promises Pave the Road to Stability | Adfer Rashid Shah

The Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections-2024 mark a transformative moment for the region’s political landscape. These elections are the first since the revocation of the special status of J&K (article 370) in 2019. With three phases of polling completed on October 1, the counting of votes and results will be out on October 8, 2024. The mandate this time again is expected to be fractured like in the elections of 2002, 2008 and 2014. The voter turnout has overall been notable, reflecting a shift from the boycott culture and separatist ideologies to the general trend of merging into the mainstream. The increased political participation of youth in all the 90 constituencies reflects their keenness for change on the ground and quest for resolution of their pressing issues like massive unemployment and scores of other issues. Also this election especially in the valley was characterized by emotional campaigning/emotional slogans aimed at manipulating people with emotions and ambitious promises from some political parties and a few independents who even made bigger promises which are far beyond the power jurisdiction of a UT assembly. What makes this election interesting is the way people are responding to the poll process and the shift in voting behavior of youth was witnessed after a long gap of 10 years. Further the emerging political dynamics in terms of small parties claiming to be the king makers, scores of independents contesting, still banned Jamaat-e-Islami’s jumping into the poll fray through independents, pre poll and possible post poll alliances needs to be studied. Besides the role of social media in shaping the public opinion, significant decline in violence and a growing demand for democratic accountability, as citizens express aspirations for change, statehood demand, effective governance, social justice and dignified livelihood to youth besides release of prisoners’ arrested under PSA/ UAPA

Elections in Jammu and Kashmir and the Public Pulse

Elections in Jammu and Kashmir are underway for a 90 seat Assembly, (47 seats in Kashmir division and 43 seats in Jammu division) with the total three phases of polling over with the final Phase on October1, after a long gap of ten years. This milestone event marks the first election since the territory’s special status was revoked and its statehood withdrawn in 2019. As the people of Jammu and Kashmir cast their votes, it’s essential to examine their response so far and the social and political churning in the valley, peoples especially youth’s huge response to the polls, the voting behavior and new patterns of youth affiliations and role of media, funny slogans, music and dance during campaigning. These elections brought further inclusivity in terms of the West Pakistan refugees and Gorkha community in the UT voting for the first time in seventy years.

Needless to say that the proliferation of social media and digital platforms has revolutionized the way people consume information and engage with politics. But during this election it seems that most of the candidates and the political parties especially in Kashmir have leveraged these platforms for propagating their emotional polarization that sans any concrete development talk which may have an impact on the poll outcomes. Sociologically speaking, the campaigning for these elections has more been around the emotional issues/prison stories, peoples suffering, labeling and blame game rather than any definite development related speeches especially in the valley given the huge gap between the peoples chosen government in past (2014) and scenario now. However, the remarkable thing with these elections is that separatism completely seems a bygone idea and the credit for this primarily goes to the decades of conflict fatigue among masses, besides the consistent counter-terrorist and peace building role of the security apparatus. Separatism as an ideology seems to have has lost its relevance seeing the wider participation of people across ideologies and even the religio-political groups like Jamaat-e-Islami taking part in elections though not directly but backing some independents. The polling completed on all the 90 seats has showed encouraging voting percentages which as per ECI were 61.38 (first phase) and 57.31 (second phase) and 65.65 (final phase) percent respectively. The overall voting percentage in three phases was 63.45.The encouraging turn out can definitely be linked to people’s unsubscribing to the politics or ideology of secessionism, gun culture and vested interests besides decades of suffering in the conflict situation and peoples yearning for the resolution of their immediate and routine issues.

Navigating New Normalcy: The Path to Sustainable Peace and Progress

This election certainly brought a new hope for the return of total normalcy with a significant decline in the culture of violence in the valley while Jammu region somewhat has became the new Kashmir in terms of attacks on pilgrims and recent terrorist incidents. While people and the political parties all heaved a sigh of relief with the announcement of the elections in the union territory because it ended the prolonged political uncertainty in J&K, one can safely argue that Jammu and Kashmir today is reaping the fruits of normalcy and sense of accountability created under the LG regime. As there hardly seems any radicalization or radical elements especially among the vulnerable youth who are showing a growing interest in electoral politics and a new crop of young leaders has emerged on the political landscape bring new ideas and energy into the public sphere. While the demand for the return of statehood is at the top, youths focus is on development prioritizing issues like education, employment and infrastructural development besides yearning for free voices and expression.

On the security and peace building front, the real challenge to the upcoming government will be to institutionalize the achieved state of peace and normalcy. It will not be too difficult for them since the security apparatus through its perception management, Sadbhavana and efficient counter terrorism has been able to institutionalize goodwill among masses for decades now despite many challenges. In terms of security; while the Forces graduated towards genuine commitment to the dictums of ‘Zero HR Violations’ and ‘Zero Collateral Damage’, the people have accordingly responded with patience and sense of peace and tranquility has appeared on the ground.

On the political front, undoubtedly there had been a steady deepening of uncertainty due to delay in the peoples chosen government formation (State demoted to UTs) and a plethora of wild guesses about the possible players in government formation however the larger question and bigger challenge remains how the Centre envisions future Jammu and Kashmir and what is its idea and work plan for sustaining the achieved peace quantum ahead? Because just government formation cannot be the solution, Jammu and Kashmir needs much more than that in terms of the issues it is beset with. While the voting percentage so far in two phases is certainly encouraging (barring Srinagar vote percentage 29.1%) and reflects peoples rejection of separatist ideologies (even Hurriyat not calling itself separatist but a resolution seeker now), there is a challenge too and that is how the increasing public response in good governance during LG Regime needs to be carried forward and the best practices set under his regime are not diluted or compromised besides working seriously to address the trust deficit among masses. What is yet to be seen is how this change translates into happiness in the valley, improved Human Indices, social infrastructure and real empowerment of the people besides the immediate return of the statehood status to Jammu and Kashmir.

Peoples Aspirations and Overwhelming Participation

If the participation of people in the poll process is taken as the measurement of trust in democracy, then there has been a tremendous boost in this direction, however voting behavior in Kashmir this time is not just linked to what media calls the silent voter (angry people but silent out of fear) who wanted a change from Bureaucracy Raj to love for democracy (From UT status to Statehood) only but it is seen with a practical impact on the ground in terms of massive participation of people in the poll campaigning with a significant women’s participation in the campaigning too. However there are lesser women contesting as compared to men as out of 873 total candidates in the fray only 43 are women. Also a significant section of youth candidates are contesting and youth are campaigning freely for their youth icons without any fear or terror threats this time. Further Jamat-e-Islami’-a banned religio-political outfit jumping in the poll fray (indirectly through 10 independent candidates) is not a less interesting factor and needs to be studied from security and sociological perspectives. The re-emergence of Engineer Rashid all of a sudden in campaigning and his style of emotional politics and polarization of votes especially in the northern belt of the valley and his alliance with Jamat-e-Islami is going to have a significant impact. His party Awami Itihad Party (AIP) expanding its footprint in the whole valley is also significant and its overall impact on youth psychology also need to be studied carefully. The larger question however will be how will the state negotiate with such a provocative rhetoric seeing its impact on the vulnerable younger generation. His interim bail has already been extended till October 12. What remains to be seen is whether Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference (PC) will challenge Er. Rashid’s Awami Itihad Party’s (AIP) overconfidence in North Kashmir, or whether both parties will secure an equal number of seats. Furthermore, will the National Conference undermine the prospects of both groups, also remains to be a matter of interest?

Newly Emerged/Small Parties vs. Established Parties: The Problem of Credibility

Besides Er Rashid’s AIP and Sajad Lone’s Peoples Conference, a huge number of independent candidates in the fray reflect the vote divide and larger fragmentation of votes against the major parties and its impact remains to be seen in terms of the vote share and winnability of the established parties. Post 2018, Kashmir valley saw the emergence of a few one-leader new parties, actually the rebels who left the established parties and the parties who which have been trying hard to make their mark and prevent the established parties to get good numbers to form the government. However image issues; public rapport and lack of big faces in the party other than the founder remain their major challenges besides young voters’ agency and identity consciousness. Ironically some of these parties are even claiming to be the king makers in the government formation that remains to be seen. The fact remains that the established parties are struggling hard to retain their traditional turfs and loyal voters given the plethora of challenges like an army of independent candidates fighting against them in almost in all the constituencies. Besides the traditional big parties, even these small parties are talking about big resolutions far beyond their UT assembly mandate like bringing back Article 370/35A, release of incarcerated people arrested under PSA/UAPA, return of the statehood, identity questions, regional aspirations, power projects, freebies besides blame game against each other. Even the people know the limits of the new UT assembly while some leaders try to manipulate them with claims like, “Kashmir Ka Masla” but voting is purely an emotional issue this time in Kashmir valley for people are desperate for change and want their own representatives to look into their grave problems.

Understanding Youth Response to Elections and the Voting Preferences

Until the recent past, the youth of the Kashmir valley rarely engaged in the electoral process, largely due to their perception that their voices were inconsequential and that they lacked political representation. Consequently, many opted for electoral boycotts for decades together. However, this year’s parliamentary elections sparked a shift in their belief regarding their agency and political efficacy, as they yearned for their voices to be heard after a decade of silence. The subsequent assembly elections further nurtured a sense of what Political sociologist Gabriel Almond (1963) calls ‘Civic culture’ among the youth, resulting in significant changes in their response, attitudes, values, and behaviors that support democratic participation. They began to cultivate civic competence in relation to issues of identity, regional politics, and their aspirations for democracy, development, and solutions to their pressing challenges. This shift from their complete feeling of alienation to the feeling of being active change makers for they begin to believe that they are affected by it, what political scientists Gabriel Almond and Verba termed a shift from the ‘Parochial to Subject to Participant political culture’. Youth have traversed a long way from what radical American sociologist David Riesman called ‘the Lonely Crowd’. The concept of the ‘Lonely Crowd’ describes collectives of individuals who adhere to common traditions and conform to values yet are often disconnected from one another on a personal level (exactly the situation of youth in valley). His magnum opus of 1950 ‘The Lonely Crowd: A Study of the Changing American Character that he wrote with Nathan Glazer and Reuel Denney if contextualized in the Jammu and Kashmir context can offer insights into social and political dynamics of young voters in this election. Applying this framework reveals insights into their sense of alienation as well as their intense political participation now. Riesman’s typology (though for the developed world) classifies individuals into three categories: ‘tradition-directed, inner-directed, and other-directed’. In the context of Jammu and Kashmir, youth exhibit characteristics from all three categories. Tradition-directed youth prioritized regional and cultural identity in their electoral decisions. Inner-directed voters (that seems the dominant trend in Kashmir) made electoral decisions based on personal convictions, quest for power, voices, fame, truth and other individual concerns, often informed by their knowledge of the candidates in fray. In contrast, other-directed youth’s voting behavior is significantly influenced by their relationships like social networks, peer opinions and the impact of social media on their political choices. This classification is highly relevant to understand youth’s response to assembly polls and underscores the complex motivations of often alienated, silent, and demoralized youth whose engagement in the political arena is both a response to their social context and a manifestation of their desire for change in Jammu and Kashmir’s elections.

Therefore, youth in Kashmir mostly participated in elections out of this inner-directed voting motivation, as a shift in voting behavior of youth is witnessed especially in the Kashmir valley. They tried to assert their own identity and agency and that is why the family affiliations to political parties no longer dictated their voting preferences. They prioritized regional identity, self interests, and career concerns over their traditional party loyalties. Therefore, there is a shift in voting behavior among youth from their parents’ traditional party affiliations and this is not unlikely that members of a family might have voted for different candidates. This is because youth are very conscious, able to use their agency, aware of history and know what they want and what is ailing in the society. They are worried about rising unemployment, livelihood and other concerns. Also amid the growing media influence and youths’ access to information and analysis, changing ideological affiliations may drastically alter the expected political outcomes of these elections on October 8 when the votes are counted and results come out. In rural Kashmir particularly, voting behavior is also shaped by people’s personal likeness of the candidate, party affiliations and direct-indirect contact with the contesting candidate, local issues, insider-outsider binary, community or religious leader’s influence who at such times direct their followers to vote for a particular candidate (Peer-Mureedi direction). Also the fact remains that a significant youth cohort that was ineligible and underage during 2014 elections is an eligible voter now and given their curiosity of voting for the first time, the result is overwhelming participation and huge engagement with the whole election process.

Of Government Formation: Who Will Take the Helm?

As speculations predict a National Conference in alliance with Congress (JKNC + JK Congress ++) will score above the required numbers but may need PDP or Er. Rashid or both to make it to the government formation but at the same time BJP is expected to win big in Jammu division and with the help of independents who are 346 in number (about 40% of the total candidates), it can also be a major contender to stake claim to form the government. What is interesting to see is whether the congress candidates contesting against BJP in Jammu are able to get a significant number of seats while the fact remains that Rahul Gandhi enjoys a lot of good will in the valley but congress lacks a robust organization? Besides pre-poll alliances, some post poll alliances are also expected given the kind of mandate they may come out on October 8. Will Rashid’s AIP be the king maker or how will Jamat-e-Islami backed 10 candidates’ fare in these elections remains to be seen as Jamaat is back in the poll fray after 37 long years. Will emotional campaigning work and fetch good number of seats even to parties like PDP also remains to be seen? How will Jammu region vote post article 370 abrogation and how will it impact in the government formation also remains an interesting question. The hard reality is that Jammu and Kashmir’s youth are in search of genuine, capable and inspired leadership and this is also the reason that youth are overwhelmingly participating in these elections. They demand a dignified livelihood, effective leadership, inclusive ideas of peace and development. As far major issues to be resolved are concerned, youth unemployment, social justice and welfare, quality of basic facilities like safe and clean drinking water supply and affordable electricity, quality education and tourism development, agricultural and industries development and infrastructure remain key issues and areas besides the public quest for the release of youth who are still incarcerated under Public safety Act or UAPA. I think this is the right time to give youth a chance to celebrate democracy and have free voices so that an atmosphere of peace and development prevails.

Last Word: Beyond the Verdict

The message is simply loud and clear, people want to move towards peace, prosperity and development besides redressel of their basic issues like water supply and electricity supply and tariff. People want their candidates to fight for their free voice, for a life with dignity and most importantly for working towards creation of employment avenues which needs a clear roadmap and Centre’s special employment package. The clear-cut message by the overwhelming participation of the people in these elections to all the parties is that ‘if you fail to deliver, we will fail you for sure’. What remains to be seen is whether the new assembly fulfills the youth aspirations and tackles the pressing challenges within its very limited powers. The politicians in J&K should not keep luring masses on emotional issues but the real efforts of the new assembly should be to work for the peace, progress and development as people already have adapted to the changes post article 370 abrogation.

[Acknowledgement: Author sincerely thanks Dr Fayaz Bhat- Education Expert & Correspondent at Eurasia Review for his timely inputs and suggestions]

(Author: Dr Adfer Rashid Shah works with Sarojini Naidu Centre for Women’s Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia. He is a Sociologist, Columnist and George Greenia Fellow. Mail at: adfer.syed[at]gmail.com)

References

• Almond, G. and Verba,S. (1972). The Civic Culture. New Jersey: Princeton University Press
• Fisher, D.R.(2012). Youth Political Participation: Bridging Activism and Electoral Politics. Annual Review of Sociology, 38, 119–137. http://www.jstor.org/stable/23254589
• Formisano, R. P. (2001). The Concept of Political Culture. The Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 31(3), 393–426. http://www.jstor.org/stable/207089
• Riesman, D., Denny, R.,& Glazer, N.(1950). The Lonely Crowd: A Study of the Changing American Character. Yale University Press.
• Shah, A.(2016). Kashmir -Yearning for Peace: A Socio-political History of Uncertainty and Chaos. Germany: Dictus.
• Sangkhamanee, J. (2023). Assembling Electoral Intimacy: Political Affects and Affection in Thailand’s 2023 General Elections. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 45(3), 372–379. https://www.jstor.org/stable/27278476
• Shah, A. R.(2012). Restless Beings: Understanding Kashmiri Youth in Sociological Contour. The Tibet Journal, 37(4), 3–33. http://www.jstor.org/stable/tibetjournal.37.4.3