Refusing invitation for swearing in, points to Trump-Modi friendship on the rock | Arun Srivastava

Their friendship is fragile. It is not based on the precinct of mutual trust and respect. Both, Donald Trump and Narendra Modi, have been busy promoting their own personal interests behind the veneer of friendship. While Trump used it for achieving his business mission, more than fulfilling US interest, Modi suffering from a personality complex used it for projecting him as Vishwaguru, the most revered and respected world leader.

Obviously Trump not inviting Modi to his swearing as the US President has not come as a surprise. He has come to nurse the view that Modi has been using him to serve his personal ambition. An insight into Trump’s election campaign would underline that this time Trump did not invite Modi to reach out to the Indian diaspora to seek their votes. Trump has come to know that while Modi has lost his Midas touch, he was for extracting more for him in lieu of his support. He is also aware that Modi is not assertive and would not dare to identify with his enemies.

At least four of Modi’s actions annoyed Trump. USA administration strongly held the view that India’s overseas secret agency RAW had hatched assassination plots on the soil of US and Canada with the tacit approval of Modi. USA administration deplored this action as it was a part of a machination to silence dissidents and rebels seeking protection in other countries. By resorting to this action Modi was violating the sovereignty of that nation.

For US administration India has been found to resort to cross-border repression like violence, harassment and surveillance. But so far US did not made it a big issue publicly for obvious reasons. US administration is said to be in possession of proof of the involvement of higher-ranking RAW officials in such actions. Some six months back The Washington Post had carried news in this regard.

Though Indian government outright denied of any plan to oust President Mohamed Muizzu, elected in September 2023 as claimed by The Washington Post in its report, the US administration, especially Trump is not satisfied with the clarification.

Trump also did not like India’s position on de-dollarising international trade. Some time back this issue of was raised by the BRICS; a group consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Trump retaliated by threatening to impose heavy tariffs against countries challenging the dollar’s primacy. For US it is the issue of potential economic battle. After World War II, the Bretton Woods Agreement (1944) established the US dollar as the cornerstone of the global financial system.

Apprehending Trump’s aggression India retreated by saying that it has no plans for de-dollarisation. Reserve Bank of India had responded to Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariff on BRICS nations planning to have a common currency to challenge the dominance of U.S. dollar in global trade. Its governor said; “No decision has been taken in the matter. The geographical spread of the countries also is a factor which has to be kept in mind unlike the Eurozone which has a single currency and they have geographical continuity. BRICS countries are spread all over”.

But this was not enough to sooth the hurt pride of US. Trump is yet to forget that India had not in the beginning objected to it. According to close aides of Trump, endorsement of de-dollarization by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping risks impacting India’s growth and strengthening China’s grip across the globe.

Apprehending Trump’s aggression India retreated by saying that India has no plans for de-dollarisation. Reserve Bank of India had responded Donald Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariff on BRICS nations planning to have a common currency to challenge the dominance of U.S. dollar in global trade. Its governor said; “No decision has been taken in the matter. The geographical spread of the countries also is a factor which has to be kept in mind unlike the Eurozone which has a single currency and they have geographical continuity. BRICS countries are spread all over”.

While Chinese president Xi Jinping snubbed Trump’s invitation for his swearing, Modi’s envoy, India’s foreign minister S. Jaishankar camped for five days from December 24 and literally used his best diplomatic skill and efforts to get the invite, but Trump did not relent. Trump inviting XI is the unprecedented development in the history of the US since 1874. Inviting XI is intriguing as it comes against the background of Trump calling China the greatest threat, tensions over Taiwan and a war of words over ongoing sanctions and tariffs.

Trump has also not taken flippantly Modi’s attitude towards China. Though nursing the rightist ideology, Modi is supposed to be an adversary of China, but in practice Modi has not shown any hostile attitude towards China. India continues to be the major consumer of the Chinese products and as a result of it, a large number of small and medium industries ha e gone as they are unable to compete the Chinese goods which sell at a comparatively low price.

It is globally known that Trump has been the pivot of the anti-Chinese forces. Obviously in such a scenario Trump’s invitation to Xi Jinping while has sparked significant international interest, but at the same time Xi’s refusal has not come as a surprise. Global fraternity expected refusal. Trump inviting XI is an unprecedented development in the history of the US since 1874. Inviting XI is intriguing as it comes against the background of Trump calling China the greatest threat, tensions over Taiwan and a war of words over ongoing sanctions and tariffs.

What made Trump ignore his best friend is really shocking. Trump extended the invitation to smaller countries but ignored India. The experts feel that this is a warning to Modi, who in recent past had tried to project himself as an invincible player in the global arena. One thing is absolutely clear Trump not inviting Modi would give rise to immense foreboding. Modi Bhakts may not agree, but the fact remains that his not being invited would have a major adverse political and economic impact on the Indian economy as well as the Indian diaspora. The refusal coincides with Make America Great Again’s (MAGA) demand to restrict the issuance of H-1B visa and Modi’s effort to project himself as a key player in international politics.

The name MAGA, itself underlines the seriousness of the social and economic situation prevailing in America. This tries to underline that US has lost its status due to the inflow of migrants, especially from India. During last five years, precisely during the first tenure of Trump as US President, more than 78% of the highest-paid H-1B applicants—those with proposed salaries exceeding $1 million per year—were from India. Of these high earners, more than 25% were women. And more than 65% of these well-heeled H-1B applicants from India were sponsored by smaller US-based companies. This has also generated ill will towards Indians amongst the Americans as it is being projected as the sign of Indians being superior to native Americans.

For some it may appear to be preposterous, but it is a fact that denial of invitation, is the beginning of the end of Modi’s Global Dreams. Modi would lose his say in the global arena. His desperation to pursue rightist policies has already presented him in poor light across the world. His slogan of “atma nirbhar bharat” is perceived as the desi version of Trump’s slogan of “make America great Again”. Both have the rightist orientation and implications.

Yet another reason for Trump turning cold to Modi has been the approach of the US rightist forces towards Modi. It is an open secret that the US rightist forces do not endorse the rightist political line of Saffron ecosystem. While Trump believes and practices white-supremacist, ultra-nationalist and divisive brand of rightist politics, Modi is for communal and perverse Hindutva philosophy of RSS. While Trump uses the democratic practices to have his way, Modi is systematically demolishing the democratic system and values. It is worth mentioning that during his earlier stint, his administration had pulled up Modi establishment for smashing democracy.

Modi has come to realise the gravity and implication of Trump’s action. Though Trump will be visiting India in September this year to participate at the Quad meet, Modi is not sure to what extent this visit will help ameliorate the situation. His desperation to get an invitation owes more to it.

The name MAGA, itself underlines the seriousness of the social and economic situation prevailing in America. This tries to underline that US has lost its status due to the inflow of migrants, especially from India. During last five years, precisely during the first tenure of Trump as US President, more than 78% of the highest-paid H-1B applicants—those with proposed salaries exceeding $1 million per year—were from India. Of these high earners, more than 25% were women. And more than 65% of these well-heeled H-1B applicants from India were sponsored by smaller US-based companies. The H-1B applicants sponsored by US companies generally had higher salaries.

This has also generated ill will towards Indians amongst the Americans as it is being projected as a sign of Indians being superior to native Americans. It is said that the persons who come to the US on H-1B visa have specialised knowledge and a bachelor’s or higher degree in the specific specialty, or its equivalent. The US Congress created the H-1B program in 1990. Initially, it was limited to 65,000 visas every year. But since 2004, the number of new H-1B visas issued has increased to 85,000 per year.

It is known that Modi lacks an innovative and original vision. Let me cite one small example. During the second wave of COVID Modi had accepted offers of help from nearly 40 other nations. The government had lobbied with foreign governments for oxygen plants and tankers, the arrival of medicines, and other supplies was hailed on social media. But in sharp contrast, in 2004, a tsunami struck India, and then-Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh decided to stop accepting aid from other countries to deal with disasters. He had offered aid to the United States in the wake of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and to China after the 2008 Sichuan earthquake.

Yet another reason that has strained their relationship is Modi’s pushing and promoting Adani’s interest across the world. Trump is not averse to promoting tainted persons. His recent decisions as the next President, to appoint his daughter’s father-in-law – a convicted felon who he pardoned as President in 2020 – as the next US ambassador to France is an example. But what has scared Trump is the move to use US land for the illegal activities of Adani. Close aides of Trump hold the view that it would malign his public image and send the message that Modi was using his friendship with Trump to promote the illegal business of Adani. Only on November 20, a US federal court issued an arrest warrant for India’s richest man Gautam Adani based on the charges of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of defrauding investors and bribing officials.