2025: Challenges before the NDA Government & the Opposition | P. S. Jayaramu

January 6, 2025

The year 2025 has begun. It is appropriate to examine the challenges before the NDA Government and the Opposition.

It must be stated at the very outset that though the BJP failed to secure a majority on its own and had to depend on the allies, specially the TDP and the JD(U), to form the government, in reality, it is clear that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is conducting himself as though he is heading a single party/ BJP government. The symptoms of that emerged in the first few days itself as he retained the same persons in the key ministries of Finance, Defence and Foreign Affairs. The key allies—the TDP and the JD(U)— caved in to serve their own interests. Assembly poll victories in Haryana and Maharastra have emboldened Modi to further assert his supremacy.

Om Brila too was retained as the Speakers, despite the Opposition’s plea that it should go to the longest serving member of the Lok Sabha. The fact that promise of letting the Opposition to have the Deputy Speaker from it’s side has not been kept up and likely not to be adhered to. The Opposition too is to be blamed for not asserting its demand for Deputy Speakership during the monsoon and winter sessions of the Parliament.

Policy continuities too are evident though the challenges on the economic front are significant. The GDP growth for 2025 is discouraging withe second quarter figures dropping to a seven-quarter low of 5.4. Added to that, rating agencies are showing an average of 0.5 percentage points from their earlier optimism of around 7 percent growth for 2025. Many critical analysts are pointing to 6 percent growth. Though India still remains the world’s fastest growing economy, figures thus point to a decline in its growth story. The unemployment rate though declined from 8.7 percent to 8 percent in 2024, is still high. According to some experts, the figures do not accurately reflect the rural unemployment situation. The challenge, therefore, before the Modi-led Government is one of creating jobs across sectors to accelerate the employment situation. One has to wait and see what kind of projections would the Finance Minister Ms Nirmala Sitharaman would come up with when she presents tbe budget in a few weeks from now.

Politically,the Modi-led Government will face the challenge of maintaining its winning momentum in the up-coming Delhi assembly elections and the one in Bihar later this year. Despite its declining public perception about the corruption issue, AAP is expected to provide a formidable challenge to the BJP in the Delhi assembly elections.

It is however in the field of foreign policy, the Modi Government is likely to face stiffer challenges. The challenge of preserving the safety of Hindus in Bangladesh along with that of dealing with the implications of China’s continued military expansion and the uncertainties on the border front will be the key issues to be handled by Modi and Jaishanker. Equally importantly, it will have to be watched how well the challenges likely to be posed by the Trump Administration with regard to heightened import tariffs and the H1B visa issue. Additionally, it remains to be seen how the Indian foreign policy makers will respond to possible overtures by Trump to go along with him in his contain ‘China policy’, in the QUAD ‘alliance’ and his policies towards Iran and Israel. No doubt, Foreign Miniister Dr Jaishankar repeatedly refers to India’s committment to fostering multipolarity and a rules-based international order. The G-20 summit in Brazil later this year will be a test of India’s diplomacy to strengthen the South as a strong pole in the international system. It also remains to be seen whether Modi regime will play an active role or continue to issue statements that this is not the age of war, for bringing an end to the war in Ukraine which will be entering its third year soon.

Challenges before the Opposition :

The Opposition is faced with greater challenges in the year 2025. Undoubtedly, the strength of the Opposition has considerably improved in the Lok Sabha as was evident from the results of the Lok Sabha polls. The Congress Party, in particular, increased its strength in the Lok Sabha to 99 and with the massive victory of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra in Wayanad by-polls has reached the magical figure of 100. Rahul Gandhi has become the Leader of the Opposition (LoP) in the Lok Sabha. However, the Congress Party became arrogant and cut itself off from the reality of caste dynamics in Haryana that it would unseat the BJP by clinging on to the Hooda family and in the process making the State electorate fear the possibililities of Jat hegemony over them. In the process, they voted back the BJP to power for the third time. The Congress led by Rahul Gandhi failed to see the writing on the wall. The Party performed equally badly, may be much worse, in Maharastra. Low and casual campaigning, inability to appeal to the voter sentiments and more importantly the message it sent to the electorate that the MVA was a divided house led to their humiliating defeat at the hustlings.

It is imperative that the Opposition INDIA bloc realises the enormity of the situation that it faces and resorts to voters’-acceptable course correction if it has to remain a formidable adversary to the BJP. There are a few things which need to be done on a priority basis.

1. The leadership issue in the INDIA bloc needs to be settled urgently. With Mamata Banerjee and Akhilesh Yadav taking the position that the Congress Party should not continue to stake its claim for the leadership of the bloc, the Congress should hold extensive internal discussions to accede to such a proposal. Of course, it will be difficult for the Congress to do so given the fact that it has 100 members in the Lok Sabha. But, may be in the intersts of opposition unity, the Congress leadership should climb down from its position. It is a different matter whether Mamata Banerjee would provide the necessary leadership to the INDIA bloc. Also, testing her leadership in polls will be an issue, with Lok Sabha elections being far away. However, the Bengal assembly elections in March 2026 would provide an opportunity for that.

2. More importantly, the INDIA bloc must have an organisational structure, with an officially appointed Convener for the group to liaison among the constituent parties. The group must hold quarterly meetings to decide on the issues before it and articulate its collective position.

3. Associated with the above point is the paramount need for the bloc to agree on a narrative acceptable to the different segments of the electorate, more specifically the aspirational youth ( including women voters among them). Rahul Gandhi’s obsession with Adani should go as most of the Congress-ruled States are also entertaining the business house and luring its investments. The bloc, more so the Congress, in view of its impressive strength in the Lok Sabha, will have to come up with specific Policy alternatives to that of the BJP and project them effectively both inside the Parliament and outside and not just paralyse the proceedings. (The BJP too is guilty of paralysing the sessions of the Parliament.) In this regard, it would be useful for the INDIA bloc to carry the media with it, especially the electronic media, which is largely Modi-friendly. In short, the Opposition should act as a Shadow Cabinet within the Parliament and as an effective coherent group outside to win over popular support. This is an uphill, but not an impossible task, if the INDIA bloc, as a whole, demonstrates unity of purpose and action.

By way of conclusion, it needs reiteration that the Indian electorate are wise and are willing to vote a Party/ bloc to power if only they are convinced that there is an acceptable alternative before them. 2025 should be used by the Opposition as an opportunity to convince the people of India that they are sincere and are willing to bide their time.

(Author: Prof. P. S. Jayaramu is former Dean, Faculty of Arts, Bangalore University and former Senior Fellow, ICSSR, New Delhi)