Analysing Donald Trump’s Historic Presidential Victory | P. S. Jayaramu

November 7, 2024

The American Presidential election was very much in the news for quite some time. More so, because it was dubbed by the media and the leadership of both the Republican and Democratic Parties as a closely contested poll, with the pollsters describing it as a neck to neck fight between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Pollsters described it as a battle with a margin of about 1 percent, with some of them predicting a possible win by Kamala Harris. Many predicted a long legal battle with either of the defeated candidate filing lawsuits. Some even humorously said we may have to ‘toss a coin’ to decide who would be the 47th President of the United States of America. The results have proved them all wrong, with Donald Trump winning decisively, not only in terms of the Electoral College votes but even the popular vote across the country, even in the swing States.What follows is a tentative analysis of Trump’s return as President. A more serious judgement will have to wait for the President-elect Trump to take office on 20th January 2025. Trump’s State of the Union address would reveal the broad cantours of his Presidency.

The broad takeaways:

1. As noted above, opinion polls failed miserably to gauge the mood of the American electorate. May be, many of them indulged in wishful thinking of sorts. It is interesting to notice a similar parallel in India, a few months ago, when exit polls predicted a massive win for the Modi-led BJP in the Lok Sabha elections, with Modi and his sycophants indulging in the slogan “abki baar charsou paar’, meaning BJP would cross 400. But, as we know, nothing of that sort happened with the voters conveying a clear message to the BJP that it can only head a coalition government To get back to the American story, let us face the fact that the opinion polls failed to read the mood and aspirations of the American voters. One is tempted to even guess, as it was done in the case of the Indian pollsters, that there too, some forces may have ‘doctored’ the findings of the surveys. It is time pollsters in democracies rise above such pressures and try to gauge the real mood of the people. Also, the telephonic interviews, as most pollsters did in the US, failed to help in assessing the real popular mood. In any case, retaining credibility should be the overriding consideration behind such ‘results-guessers’.

2. The American voters were not impressed by the arguments of the Democratic Party leaders and the media-academia complex that Democracy was in danger. The general lot of American voters, both in the past and this time round, were not driven by ideological and value-oriented narratives. What mattered most to them were the need for jobs and reviving the economy, as they were alive to the fact that Trump had succeeded largely in job creation during his first term. Hence their vote to him.

3. Another associated factor which led the American electorate to bring back Donald Trump, as the second non-consecutive President to the White House was the bad state of the economy under President Biden. In fact, Kamala Harris in a way admitted it and in her campaign speeches referred to her determination to restore the economic health of the country, if voted to power. Probably, the voters wanted to trust Trump more than Hartis and as such voted for Trump.

4. Immigration has been an issue bothering the American nation and society, an issue which Donald Trump projected as a key issue promising to end it if voted to power. The results show that the American electorate decided to believe him. That said, it is also a fact that the immigrants are the ones who do all the household and associated duties in American society. Viewed from this realistic perspective, it remains to be seen how much of success would Trump achieve in this front. May be, he would reduce the degree of illegal migration to some extent But, in any case, his language against immigrants during his campaign trails was deplorable, to say the least.

Foreign Policy issues :

5. As regards foreign policy issues, it is a well known fact that the average American voters are not interested in them, be it Afghanistan earlier or Ukraine now. Israel sees some resonance with the American voters as there is a considerable Jewish population in America who were/are angry with the Hamas, though the issue of a homeland for the Palestinians is getting significant traction among the American citizens, cutting across Party lines. In any case, going by the bonhomie that exists between Trump and Netanyahu, it is doubtful if Trumph would press the button for a closure of the war.

6. As for Ukraine, in keeping with his much declared position that it is largely an European issue and that he doesn’t want America to bear the costs of funding and arming Ukraine, Trump might try to impress upon Zelensky to go in for a negotiated settlement of the issue. He may dangle out some carrot to the Russian President Putin in this regard. In any case, one has to wait for Trump Presidency to take charge to see clear Policy moves in that regard.

7. About China, Trump may tone down his rhetoric of imposing 60 per cent tariff on its goods, entering America. The transactional President that he is going to be, Trump might as well cut some deal with China on the trade front, though he would continue to see China as a strong geopolitical adversary. How much Trump would involve himself in the QUAD and other organisations to contain China remains to seen.

8. An issue which concerns us most in India is the character of Indo-US ties under President Trump’s second Presidency. Going by the fact that Indo-US relations were sound and marked by a personal bonhomie between Narendra Modi and Donald Trump during the latter’s first term, it is reasonable to expect a continuity in the substantive areas of bilateral relations. There may not be any pressures on India on human rights front and on non-proliferation. Trump is likely to be hard on Pakistan and Bangladesh and that would be music to the Modi dispensation. Though an increased tariff from on the Indian exports to the US is expected, the issue is likely to be sorted out to largely India’s satisfaction, in view of American ‘dependence’ on our software professionals who are adding significantly to the American economy. Trump would also see India as an ally, in his effort to contain China.

By way of conclusion, it is possible that in his second term, Donald Trump may strive for an image makeover to make himself acceptable to the larger international community by shedding a bit of his unpredictability and authoritarian streak in governance. The litmus test to his leadership would be more in the manner he handles domestic issues, like the economy and job creation to the satisfaction of the citizens.

(Author: Prof. P. S. Jayaramu is former Dean, Faculty of Arts, at Bangalore University and a former Senior Fellow of ICSSR, New Delhi)