The International Puzzle

The ten thousand pages of the records of the secret documents of the USA which have been published in the media the world over have exposed the brutality of the 46 nations’ war upon a small, hapless country in their campaign named Security for Afghanistan. The large number of innocent lives lost owing to the attacks by the troops of the USA and Britain in ruthless bombings and the utter failure of these aggressors in breaking the Taliban’s will to fight have been effectively brought out by these documents. They show that Pakistan’s ISI has been fully supporting the Taliban while its governments have received tremendous and continuous military and financial aid from the USA to fight against it. It has also come out that while the US intelligence knew about the role of the ISI in Afghanistan; the US Government went on pouring all sorts of military hardware to strengthen the Pakistani Army which controls the ISI. It is incredible that this should continue to happen for about a decade. That it was the ISI which wanted the Taliban to attack Indian offices etc. in Afghanistan has also been borne out. Moreover, it has been confirmed that Iran has been lending support to the anti-US elements.

It is this kind of indulgence with Pakistan that has led to the predicament that the USA and Britain face. They cannot win the war, and they are reluctant to admit defeat which, for the USA, will be another Vietnam. They want to withdraw their forces, but cannot without leaving a vacuum which the terrorists will fill. The Taliban and other terrorist groups aim at not only a return to power in Kabul, but also vastly strengthening the terrorists in Pakistan. Yet, while in Afghanistan, they will face opposition from the northern areas, in Pakistan, the civil society and the democratic parties, in power and also in Opposition, will not easily allow this to happen. A low intensity civil war could ensue in Afghanistan, and a big turmoil can be expected in Pakistan. The USA is, obviously, riding a tiger from which it cannot dismount.

Will Afghanistan’s President, Hamid Karzai, accept the Taliban’s ascendance to power? He is totally dependent on the USA. If the latter makes up its mind, he will have no legs to stand on. He is opposed by the Wahabi elements which find support and inspiration from the strong Wahabi sect in Saudi Arabia. They belong to the Sunni sect and will not tolerate the followers of the Shia sect supported by Iran. Thus, the internal situation in Afghanistan will really be a complicated one. But, these elements, too, want that the foreign aggressors must go. The Americans are thinking of arriving at a negotiated settlement with the ‘good’ Taliban who forsake alliance with the Al Qaeda. A force that has no prospect of winning would not be able to drive a hard bargain. But, that is what the USA wants, just as it and its allies have strengthened their grip on oil and construction industry in Iraq.

Moreover, Russia has been playing a clever game in the region. It facilitated the opening of an alternate route for the delivery of the weapons etc. of the USA to Afghanistan, but has also secretly encouraged those who are fighting against it. Nor will Russia allow the hold of the Islamists in Afghanistan because of their strong appeal in its neighbouring areas and parts of its own, like Chechnya, Dagestan and other places in the Caucasus. It is following a similar double-policy in respect of Iran. It joined the USA and others in the Security Council in imposing sanctions, but it has recently made agreements in respect of oil and gas. It has claimed that these agreements do not violate the decisions adopted by the Security Council. Germany, France and Spain would also like that oil and gas supplies from Iraq and Iran should be restored and not cut off permanently.

After the Cold War ended in the early 1990s, a peaceful world ought to have emerged. However, the USA felt victorious in having contributed, to whatever extent, the destruction of the communist system in Eastern Europe. It forgot that the latter had come to be dismantled because of its internal contradiction. Nevertheless, it started to assume the role of the sole superpower and gendarme of the entire world. It caused the destruction of Iraq, the continued denial to the Palestinians of their statehood, ruthless bombing of Serbia and the deadening of life in much of Afghanistan. At the same time, the consumption levels of its citizenry reached enormously wasteful levels, which were copied by others and have resulted in climate warming. Its policing of the world, its desire to rob the Third World of its bio-diversity and its aggressions contributed to the Wall Street meltdown and the global economic crisis. It is now the biggest stumbling bloc in resisting effective reduction of the emission of chemical gases and carbon dioxide.

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EVEN President Obama who rode the waves of change has failed to effect substantial changes in these spheres. It is true that he got the Congress to approve the Health Insurance Act, a big step towards welfare.. He also succeeded in imposing some regulations on private financial mega institutions But, in Copenhagen, his feet of clay were at display internationally. In the London Conference on Afghanistan too, he failed to provide a solution. On Iran, his government’s belligerence has not lessened. Iraq still faces the threat of disintegration. The Doha Development Round of the WTO continues to be stuck as the developed countries, under American leadership, are not ready for just and fair trade. It appears that all governments in the USA are and will remain prisoners of the country’s consumerist classes. Moreover, the industrial-military complex and others in the corporate sector will remain the bane of its economy. But, all this could have been avoided.

After the Cold War ended, the USA assumed the role of the gendarme of the whole world. But, elsewhere, significant changes were taking place. South Africa had thrown away the apartheid regime, Zimbabwe was liberating itself from the economic domination of the White settlers, Argentine and Chile were in the throes of democratic change, and were restructuring, slowly, their economies. In Western Europe, which had taken a sigh of relief as the threat from the East had ended, Social Democratic parties were coming to power in country after country and the Reagan-Thatcher model was being given up. They were busy strengthening the European Economic Community. Eastern Europe also had got new opportunities of setting up democratic regimes. In such an emerging scenario, a confident country of subcontinental size and influence could have joined with these winds of change. Together, they could stop the USA in its steps. The challenge was an exciting one. There was an oppor-tunity to bolster the prospects of peace and prosperity. Unfortunately, India became a client state of the sole superpower, adopted the Washington Consensus in the economy and joined the neo-liberal arrangement of the WTO. It did not even look at the changes..

India felt overwhelmed by its foreign exchange crisis. The crisis was not unmanageable, provided the leadership gave a call for a little austerity and initiated policy alternatives in that direction. It could have shown self-confidence and resilience. But, it decided otherwise. Till date it continues to drift.

The author is one of the country’s leading socialist ideologues.