Mainstream WeeklyAbstract
This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2024 Jharkhand assembly election, examining key themes such as the influence of Adivasi voters, the strategic appeal to women voters, the role of youth engagement, and the emergence of new leaders like Jairam Mahato. Drawing on data to support the analysis, the piece explores the central issues shaping Jharkhand’s political landscape and the factors likely to determine the electoral outcome. By examining these themes, the article aims to offer a nuanced perspective on the political dynamics at play, making it a valuable resource for understanding the complexities of the upcoming election.
Key Words : Jharkhand Assembly Election, Adivasi, JMM, Bangladeshi Infiltration, Development;
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Jharkhand is unique in India as it is the only state where Adivasis play a significant role in shaping political discourse. Since its formation on November 15, 2000, when it was separated from Bihar, the state has experienced a turbulent political environment. This year, Jharkhand is approaching its sixth state assembly election in its 25-year history. So far, the state has had seven different Chief Ministers, and except for Raghubar Das, none have completed a full term. Interestingly, even an independent candidate, Madhu Koda, managed to become Chief Minister. Over these 25 years, Jharkhand has also been placed under President’s Rule three times. To date, no political party in the state has secured the majority of 41 seats in the 81-member assembly. Currently, the BJP holds 26 seats, the AJSU 3, the JMM 30, the Congress 16, and the RJD 1, totalling 47 seats for the India alliance. Jharkhand has a total of 81 assembly seats, and any party or alliance needs to secure at least 41 seats to achieve a majority. Out of these, 28 seats are reserved for Scheduled Tribes, 9 seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes, and the remaining 44 are general seats.
The BJP has faced significant challenges in winning over Adivasi voters in Jharkhand. In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the party failed to secure any of the five Scheduled Tribe (ST) reserved seats in the state. This issue also arose during the 2019 assembly elections, where the BJP won only 2 out of 28 reserved seats. In Jharkhand, 21 out of 24 districts have a population of at least 100,000 Adivasis. There are 43 assembly seats where tribal communities make up at least 20% of the population, and in 22 of these seats, they hold a majority. In the 2019 assembly elections, the JMM won 19 out of the 28 Adivasi reserved seats, while the BJP’s performance slumped from 11 seats in 2014 to just 2 in 2019. Despite this decline in the number of seats, when looking at the vote share percentage in the ST reserved seats, the BJP secured 33.5%, while the JMM received 34.16%, reflecting a difference of less than 1%. This indicates that the BJP still retains a substantial share of non-Adivasi votes in those areas. And any shift of Adivasi voters in its favour could make electorally huge difference.
In recent years, the BJP, under Modi’s leadership, has made significant efforts to win over Adivasi communities across the country. Notably, it appointed Droupadi Murmu, an Adivasi leader, as the President of India, which was the first time any Adivasi occupied a top position in the country. Additionally, after its victory in Odisha, a bordering state of Jharkhand, the BJP appointed an Adivasi Chief Minister in that state. To further demonstrate its commitment, the party has launched several Adivasi-centric initiatives. For example, it introduced a ?24,000 crore scheme for Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups (PVTG) and established Janjatiya Gaurav Diwas to celebrate tribal heritage. However, an interesting development is that Babulal Marandi, the prominent Adivasi face of the BJP, is contesting from a general seat in Dhanwar. Marandi previously made headlines when he defeated JMM founder Shibu Soren in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections from the Dumka constituency, which is a reserved seat for Scheduled Tribes.
To weaken the JMM’s consolidated vote bank, especially in the Santhal Pargana region, the BJP has attempted to use the issue of Bangladeshi infiltration as a way to polarise voters and shift Adivasi support away from the JMM. Santhal Pargana is significant, as it contains 18 of the 28 ST reserved seats and is a stronghold for the JMM. Interestingly, the BJP has chosen to focus on the narrative of Muslim (Bangladeshi) infiltration rather than targeting other minorities, such as Christians. This is likely due to the fact that a large number of Adivasis in the region practice Christianity, which could negatively impact the BJP’s efforts to win Adivasi-reserved seats. However, the BJP is aware that using infiltration as a polarising tactic may not be effective, as it lacks a strong presence in the region. Furthermore, the Ministry of Home Affairs has not found any evidence linking Bangladeshi infiltrators to the acquisition of tribal lands, indicating that this strategy may not resonate with voters as intended. This strategy could serve three purposes for the BJP: first, it helps draw Adivasi communities closer to Hinduism and the BJP. Second, it appeals to the BJP