The Assembly by-elections in Karnataka | P. S. Jayaramu

November 5, 2024

Within one and a half years, Karnataka is into the election season thrice, the assembly elections in May 2023, the Lok Sabha elections in April-May 2024 and the upcoming by-elections slated for 13th November. The three by-elections are caused in Channapatna as a result of H D Kumaraswamy vacating his seat consequent to his winning the Mandya Lok Sabha election, in Shiggao following Basavaraj Bommai’s victory from the Haveri Lok Sabha constituency and in Sandur, due to the seat falling vacant after the election of E. Tukaram to the Lok Sabha from the Ballary constituency. The elections will take place on the 13th of November and the results will be known on 23rd November, along with the results of the Maharastra and Jharkhand assembly polls.

Since the by-elections are taking place after one and a half years, there will not be any honeymoon gift to the ruling Congress as such an (positive)effct and popular sympathy lasts generally for a period of six months. In a manner of speaking, the Congress Government has almost come in for a mid-term assessment of sorts ( though it is technically away by one year) thanks to the many controversies, like the Valmiki Cooration’s corruption scandal and the MUDA issue hanging over the Chief Minister. The Opposition NDA, consisting of the BJP and the JD(S) are projecting the by-elections as pointing to some kind of a declining legitimacy of the Siddaramaiah Government. For the Congress Party, the by-elections provide a chance to reestablish itself in the saddle.

Let me address the issues involved in the three by-polls. Firstly, there is the dynastic factor playing a determining role in the choice of the candidates by the Parties. After much confabulations with its NDA partner BJP, Kumaraswamy succeeded in putting up his son Nikhil Kumaraswamy from the Channapatna seat which was held by himself. In Sandur, the Congress ticket has gone to Tukaram’s wife. In Shiggaon, though Basavaraj Bommai was stating from the beginning that his son would not be contesting the by-election, either as a result of indirect canvassing by himself or due to the BJP high command’s decision, his son Bharath Bommai filed the nomination papers . The BJP which accuses the Congress of being dynastic has adopted the same dynasty card by putting up Bommai’s son from Shiggaon.

Secondly, it is the ubiquitous caste factor which has played the determining role in the choice of candidates by the Parties in all the three constituencies. Congress giving ticket in the last minute to Yogeswar, a Vokkaliga politician who deserted the BJP and joined it, reinforces the caste factor at play. In Shiggaon, the Congresss did not ask one of its Lingayat rebel candidate to withdraw as it wants to cut into the votes of Bharat Bommai, though it asked its rebel Muslim candidate to withdraw his nomination against its official candidate Ahmed Pathan. Thus, caste as a factor to either to seek votes or cut into the votes of the opponent is clearly a strategy adopted by the contending Parties.

Thirdly, as regards campaigning, this time round, the Congress Party seems to have taken a leaf out of BJP’s playbook. The same is evident from the fact that the Deputy Chief Minister and State Congress Chief, D. K. Shiva Kumar has constituted an army of sorts consisting of MLAs, Zilla Panchayat and Gram Panchayat leaders for campaigning for Party candidates in the three constituencies. About 316 Party functionaries are in charge of Channapatna to campaign for Yogeswar, a prestige battle for Shivakumar himself as he is keen on wresting the seat from the JD(S).182 and 148 Party functionaries are allotted to Shiggaon and Sandur respectively to ensure the success of Party candidates. Likewise, senior NDA leaders are going to indulge in joint campaigning to defeat the Congress candidates. Religious leaders may be roped in to issue appeals to vote in favour of their community candidates. More importantly, money too will play a crucial role in winning over the rural voters.

Congress will mostly retain the Sandur seat, as it has been its bastion. The 65000 ST votes, 40000 SC votes, and 10000 Muslim votes 30000 Kuruba (OBC) votes are likely to be garnered by the Congress candidate, while the 30000 Lingayat and 40000 other votes may be shared by all other candidates. In Shigaaon, the 80000 Lingagat votes are likely to be divided though a major chunk of it may go to the BJP candidate Bharath Bommai. As for Channapatna, the contest is going to be fierce, as the 105,900 plus Vokkaliga votes are likely to be divided between Nikhil Kumaraswamy and Yogeswhar. The Muslims constituting 24200 plus voters and the 8000 Kurubas( OBCs, who are loyal to Siddaramaiah) will mostly back the Congress candidate Yogeswahar. The 39000 Dalit votes may be divided between the Congress and the JD(S)/ NDA candidate Nikhil Kumaraswamy.

Though the caste arithmetic is slightly in favour of the Congress, Kumaraswamy’s hold over the Channapatna constituency cannot be overlooked. In such a scenario, a defeat in Channapatna for Nikhil Kumaraswamy would cast a shadow on his political/electoral future as well as the loss of its strong bastion by the JD(S). A victory for the Congress would bolster Shivakumar’s image and vindicate Yogeswhar’s political strength in Channapatna.

By way of conclusion, by-election results are not numerically going to affect the stability of the ruling Congress Government, as the Party enjoys a majority of 136 seats in the Legislative Assembly. Victory in all three constituencies would indeed stabilise Siddaramaiah’s Government, while victory for the NDA in 1 or 2 constituencies would bolster the spirits of the BJP and the JD(S) to sharpen their attack on the Congress Government. That may also weaken Siddaramaish’s position as Chief Minister, given the fact that his Mr. Clean image has taken a beating in the wake of the MUDA issue. That may embolden the claim of Party seniors like Deputy Chief Minister D. K. Shivakumar and the Home Minister, Dr.Parameswara to stake their claims for the CM’s ‘gaddi’. In any case, the analysts can not take their gaze out of State Politics.

(Author: Prof. P. S. Jayaramu is former Dean, Faculty of Arts, at Bangalore University and former Senior Fellow, ICSSR, New Delhi)