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Mainstream, Vol 62 No 41, October 12, 2024

Undertanding BJP’s victory in 2024 Haryana assembly elections | Thirunahari Seshu

Saturday 12 October 2024

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The BJP’s victory in Haryana

After the 18th Lok Sabha elections, the results of the Haryana and Kashmir elections have attracted the attention of the country. The two national parties, the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress, have made the Haryana and Kashmir elections a platform to show their strength. The Congress and the BJP have been trying hard to win in Haryana and Kashmir, and the results have shown a variance from the trends shown earlier via exit polls. Exit polls in both the states predicted that INDIA bloc in Kashmir and Congress in Haryana would have an edge. But BJP surprisingly held its chair in Haryana and denying Congress any momentum .

BJP’s strategic victory

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has won the Haryana assembly elections for the third consecutive time. BJP has faced a tough competition in few seats where the margins were very close .Maybe BJP had thought of such scenario and it realised that it will not be easy to win the Haryana assembly elections. The BJP sharpened and strengthened its strategy a year before the elections to get rid of the popular opposition to the government.

Apart from Manohar Lal Khattar, who has been chief minister for nine-and-a-half years. The BJP has made Nayab Singh Saini the chief minister of state .Appointing a CM from the majority community of OBCs have created a nice space and opinion among the community.The BJP has also fielded 21 OBCs in the assembly elections and it introduced 60 new faces to contest as MLAs. Realising that a strong Jat community would work against the BJP, the BJP top leadership managed to consolidate the votes of non-Jat communities - OBCs, Rajputs, Brahmins and Punjabis - in its favour. The BJP is set to form its third government in Haryana by winning 8 more seats than before.

As its grip on urban areas, especially in areas like Faridabad and Gurugram, has loosened, and an issue with support prices for crops offset farmers opposition in the state , the BJP then consolidated it’s voters through the welfare schemes of the government, (Ladli Behan 500 K Gas Cylinder) .
The strategies of Dharmendra Pradhan and the collective work of the BJP have brought the BJP to the shores of victory in Haryana. The BJP has been able to win even where it would have lost, especially with Amit Shah’s political strategy and mantra.

Congress self-destructs

Congress faced a debacle in Haryana Assembly Elections. Where the BJP won with its tactics, the Congress has lost with its overconfidence and arrogance. The Congress party’s biggest mistake was to finally ignore Rahul Gandhi’s suggestion and refuse to ally with its INDIA alliance partner, the AAP, which was willing to take only 6 assembly seats . The vote share difference between the BJP and the Congress was 0.85 per cent, while the vote share of the AAP was 1.79 per cent. Imagine if these votes were to convert to Congress,they would’ve won.

The Congress also gave priority to Jat leader and former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda rather than the Dalit leader and Sirsa Lok Sabha member Kumari Selja.This fact should also be considered as one of the reasons for the Congress defeat.

. On the other hand, the anti-people vote of the government is not tilted in favour of the Congress, the erosion of Dalit votes by the BSP and the Azad Samaj Party has also affected them in a way.

The BJP fought the elections together, whereas the Congres had split into factions and therefore there was a compromise on winning chances of candidates as well.

The impact on the upcoming elections in four states

The results of the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections will also have an impact on the assembly elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Bihar and Delhi. While the NDA is in power in the big states of Maharashtra and Bihar, the INDIA alliance is in power in Delhi and Jharkhand. If Congress would’ve won in Haryana, the political atmosphere in the four states would have been favourable to the INDIA alliance.But, the defeat of the Congress in Haryana and the victory of the BJP in four states will also have an impact on the assembly elections.

Congress needs to introspect

After the defeat in the Haryana assembly elections, the Congress party needs to introspect and change its political strategy. The Congress is not ready to ally with the AAP in Haryana, thinking their own voter base was enough to win the election. But in J and K where Congress didn’t have a proper base it had allied with NC. It is clear that Congress itself has a dual stand in its election strategy. One more example, the BJP has allotted cabinet berths to Janata Dal (Secular) leader HD Kumaraswamy, who won one Lok Sabha seat in Karnataka, and Jayant Chaudhary of the Rashtriya Lok Dal, who won the lone Lok Sabha seat in Uttar Pradesh. On the contrary, the Congress party looks down upon the parties in the INDIA alliance. The reason why the RJD did not come to power in the last Bihar assembly elections was due to Congress contesting and losing the majority of the assembly seats where they were not so powerful. In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress lost badly as it did not agree to seat sharing with the Samajwadi Party and the Bharatiya Adivasi Party. The manner in which the AAP is being ignored also exposes the immature political tactics of the Congress. How can one understand the politics and political strategy of the Congress party, which wants an alliance with the AAP in Punjab and Delhi, but is not ready for the quota of alliance in Haryana. There are doubts that if the Congress party does not change its political strategies from time to time also along with their outdated leaders, the Congress party will meet an end in the near future. The Congress has already lost power in some states. The Haryana results show that while the Congress is not strengthening itself, it is weakening the parties in the INDIA alliance.

(Author: Dr. Thirunahari Seshu, Political analyst,. Kakatiya University)

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