Pak Poll Outcome: Beyond Jingoist Rhetoric

The May 11 elections in Pakistan have produced a decisive verdict. Belying the anticipation of a hung parliament or a coalition government, former PM Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N has won a handsome victory. According to latest figures, the PML-N has won 123 seats, followed by the PPP 32, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) 27, Independents 26, MQM 18, Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam of Maulana Fazlur Rahman 10, PML-F 4, Jamaat-e-Islami 3, Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party 2, PML-Q of former military ruler Pervez Musharraf 2, National People’s Party 2, Awami National Party (ANP) 1, All Pakistan Muslim League 1, Awami Muslim League 1, Balochistan National Party 1, National Party 1 and PML-Z 1. Nawaz Sharif, who is all set to head the federal government in Islamabad for the third time, is expected to secure the requisite majority (in a House where 272 members are directly elected) with the help of Independents and smaller parties. [The results of 16 more constituencies in Balochistan, Punjab, Sindh and tribal areas are yet to come.]

What is of exceptional significance, braving the terror of the gun and IEDs, the electorate has voted in large numbers. This is doubtless a victory for democracy in a country where after more than 65 years this is the first time that a government has completed its five-year term.

Imran Khan, the celebrated cricketer, has been able to establish the presence of his PTI in Pakistan though the hopes of many of his supporters that he would be able to win the elections (because of his last-minute surge) have not materialised—in fact he is nowhere near the seat of power. He has accused the election management of resorting to large scale rigging, an allegation made by the MQM as well. But the sheer scale of the PML-N victory has muted such charges that are quite common in our part of the world.

The fact is that the bulk of the people, groaning under the weight of maladministration, misgov-ernance and corruption (which reached exponential proportions)—all of these heightened by unprece-dented power shortage manifest in long hours of loadshedding—have eventually opted for the known face of Nawaz Sharif though his absolute majority is confined to the principal province of Punjab where his brother, Shahbaz, was the Chief Minister. The PPP was hamstrung by its incapacity to organise a nationwide election campaign on account of the security threats to its leaders. The Zardari-Bilawal public quarrel on this issue also affected its chances quite adversely.

The PTI has swept the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa region where the Tehrik-e-Taliban, Pakistan decided to allow it to contest unhindered which favour was not extended to the late Khan Abdul Wali Khan’s Awami National Party (ANP) carrying forward the legacy of Frontier Gandhi Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan. As a result the ANP has been almost wiped out.

Overall Nawaz’s return to power is to be cautiously welcomed from the Indian standpoint as he had made the right noises before and after the elections on normalisation of Islamabad’s relations with New Delhi. But, as noted Pakistani columnist Khaled Ahmed has observed,

Nawaz Sharif will have to run the gauntlet of the establishment-propelled Defence of Pakistan Council led by the most powerful jihadi leader in Pakistan, Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, whose former outfit, Lashkar-e-Toiba, killed the Indian secret agent Sarabjeet in a Lahore jail.

Of course one would agree with seasoned Indian diplomat Vivek Katju, who has been actively involved in diplomatic dealings with Pakistan for several years, that

...we should welcome a forward movement on trade, treatment of prisoners, people-topeople contacts and cooperation in areas such as agriculture and the environment.

At the same time he has cautioned:

.... we should be conscious that the use of terror is a part of Pakistan’s security doctrine against India and Sharif cannot change that. His views on Kashmir and other issues have also not been flexible.

Yet, despite these limitations one cannot but conclude that the results of Pakistan’s latest poll have opened a new window of opportunity to reinforce India-Pakistan relations beyond jingoist rhetoric on both sides. The task now is to promote this positive feature in bilateral ties to the best of one’s ability.

May 16 S.C.