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Mainstream, VOL L No 27, June 23, 2012

Whirligig Politics

Editorial

Wednesday 27 June 2012, by SC

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Several developments in the international scene and on the regional plane as well as those related to the domestic political situation have assumed considerable significance of late.

The G-20 meeting at Los Cabos, Mexico found PM Manmohan Singh donning the robe of a global philanthropist to pledge $ 10 billion as the Indian contribution to the IMF’s additional $ 430 billion firewall for the eurozone. Dr Singh’s plainspeak—especially his sermon against the European approach to solving the crisis—definitely caused stir at the gathering, notably among leaders from the eurozone. But the offer of more than Rs 55,000 crores to the developed world, that is, the rich Europeans, precisely when the rating agencies are slamming India for weak public finances and high fiscal deficit as also inflation, has raised legitimate questions. Of course, the assistance mooted is part of the overall contribution of $ 60 billion by the BRICS bloc to avert a disaster in Europe; moreover the eurozone being India’s largest trading partner a collapse there could hurt the country grievously, and hence New Delhi is keen to see a return to stability in the region for its own benefit. Despite these cogent arguments the coughing up of such a large sum does not carry much conviction especially at this juncture when our own economy is in doldrums.

However, at the Rio+20 summit, which discussed sustainable development 20 years after the Earth Summit at the same venue, Rio de Janeiro, India appears to have won the day. The 192 countries gathered there agreed with New Delhi that eradicating poverty should get the highest priority, overriding all other concerns, in achieving sustainable development. Although the developed nations put up a tenacious fight to make poverty eradication subservient to the objective of a ‘green economy’, the G-77 countries’ solid backing resulted in wide acceptance of the Indian proposal. The Rio+20 Declaration—called ‘The Future We Want’—has underlined: “Eradicating poverty is the greatest global challenge facing the world today and an indispensable requirement for sustainable development.”

On June 17 Greece’s conservative leader Antonis Samaras won a narrow victory in the country’s presidential poll over the radical Left-wing bloc, Syriza, as well as a number of smaller parties opposed to the punishing conditions attached to the € 130 billion ($ 164.12 billion) bailout package. Samaras’ efforts to stitch up a pro-bailout coalition government seem to be working and thus Greece is not immediately quitting the eurozone; however, his failure to get a popular mandate would prevent him from carrying out the deep spending cuts and tax increases as demanded by the European Union and IMF. That is why the vote was not able to buoy Wall Street.

By far the most striking news came from our region. On June 19 the Pakistan Supreme Court sacked Yousaf Raza Gilani from the Prime Minister’s Office with the country’s Chief Justice rejecting the National Assembly Speaker’s ruling that Gilani’s conviction (two months ago) for contempt of court (for having refused to ask the Swiss Government to reopen corruption cases against President Asif Ali Zardari) did not merit his disqualification from the office of the head of government. The Pakistani media has described this act of the Supreme Court as a ‘judicial coup’, saying the SC was trying to divert attention from the charges levelled against the Chief Justice’s son with seeking to influence cases in the Apex Court. Meanwhile President Zardari has called a session of parliament on June 22 to elect a new PM and Makhdoom Shahabuddin, an outgoing member of Gilani’s Cabinet, has emerged as the strongest candidate for the PM’s post. No doubt the judicial verdict has the potential to create political instability in Pakistan—that is fraught with danger in view of the nation’s chequered past—but, as The Hindu has pointed out, “the possibility of a democratic transition to the next government has not been erased”; this leaves some space for hope and optimism.

As for the national scene, it is by now quite clear that the Congress nominee, Pranab Mukherjee, would not have a walkover, leave aside a cake-walk, in the presidential poll. P.A. Sangma, the former Lok Sabha Speaker, having resigned from the NCP, is firm on contesting the election and besides the AIADMK and BJD, he now enjoys the support of the BJP as well. (If elected he would be the first Christian and first tribal to occupy Rashtrapati Bhavan.) However, this has caused a rift in the NDA camp with the JD(U) throwing its lot with Pranab. The JD(U)-BJP rift has also widened with the Bihar CM, Nitish Kumar, getting embroiled in a war of words with the BJP leaders projecting Gujarat CM Narendra Modi, a person still tainted with the charge of genocide of Muslims in the State in 2002, as the candidate for the PM’s post in the 2014 parliamentary elections. Interestingly, the Left Front too is divided—the CPM has decided to back Pranab [in the company of the Shiv Sena besides JD(U)] and the Forward Bloc has followed in its footsteps but the CPI and RSP are firm on abstai-ning as they cannot support a person whole-heartedly implementing the Congress’ neoliberal policies besides being an integral part of the corporate lobby himself.

Some sections of the Left had suggested the names of Dr Binayak Sen, Justice Rajindar Sachar and Fali S. Nariman as possible candidates to be backed by the Left so that Pranab’s election does not go unchallenged. However, with the CPM having unilaterally decided to back Pranab the Left as a whole could not project a third candidate.

Meanwhile all eyes are now on TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee. Left to herself, she would not have been averse to supporting Sangma now that her preferred candidate, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, has decided not to enter the fray. But support for Sangma would entail (a) association with the BJP and (b) coming out of the UPA. None of the two risks she can afford to take at this stage. So in all probability she too, like the CPI, may abstain from voting in the presidential poll.

While the domestic economic situation remains daunting, the political scenario is turning increasingly complex with every passing day. What one is witness today is whirligig politics all round.

June 21 S.C.

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