Post-Kan Scenarios in Japanese Politics

Keeping his words to resign (announced two months ago), Japan’s Prime Minister Kan Naito is expected to resign by the end of August 2011 after the Diet passes two bills that he had set as conditions for his leaving office. This will set the stage for Japan’s sixth Prime Minister to take office in five years. The ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and Opposition combine of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and New Komeito agreed on August 9 to pass the legislation that would allow for the issuance of deficit-covering bonds. That Bill looked the toughest condition that Kan had set. Now that the Opposition has consented to its passage, Kan finally seems to have run out of tricks to extend his hold on to power.

Suddenly, Japanese politics has slumped into a phase of gloom. The brightness of two years ago when the DPJ upstaged the LDP out of power in a historic change seems to have disappeared. No sooner Yukio Hatoyama drew the curtains on Act One after a short romance with power, Kan seems to be doing the same after some halting pause. It is unfortunate that at a time when Japan is still struggling to cope with the triple disaster, the political malaise immersed with hatred and mistrust continues to stink Japanese politics. How and why did this happen and who are Kan’s enemies?

That Kan’s popularity nosedived to 14 per cent is no surprise. His handling of the Fukushima crisis left much to be desired. It is questionable if anybody else in Kan’s position at that time would have done better and the truism is Kan erred and perceived to have erred seriously. His enemies are both from within and outside. From within, the group within the DPJ supporting scandal-tainted heavyweight Ozawa Ichiro seemed to have been working against Kan from the beginning. Secondly, his close aides and influential politicians, including Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Sengoku Yoshito, conspired to oust him. Thirdly, from outside the Opposition, the LDP and New Komeito worked hard to return to power and therefore are against Kan. Fourthly, despite Kan’s plan to phase out nuclear power from Japan, the Tokyo Electric Power Company and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry that protects nuclear power generation as well as politicians close to them ganged up to oust Kan.

The situation in the post-Kan period may not be any better than what it is now. It is for sure that irrespective of who succeeds Kan, the influence of Ozawa and his grip on the party would grow. It is also unclear whether the person who succeeds Kan would continue to support his plan to phase out nuclear power generation. Kan’s continuance in power longer than expected is being seen as a perceived fear that his efforts would be undone too soon after he departs.

Kan appeared to have dug his own political grave by some colossal blunders. His first mistake was to pick up Matsumoto Ryu as State Minister in charge of the rebuilding process following the earthquake. Matsumuto’s quick resignation tarnished Kan’s image. Kan’s poaching of Hamada Kazuyuki from the LDP as the parliamentary secretary for reconstruction infuriated the LDP. The move drew wrath from the DPJ as well. In a scathing attack, the editor-in-chief of The Asahi Shimbun, Wakamiya Yoshibumi, charged that Kan “cannot expect always to rely on guerilla tactics” and continue to cling to power, and asked Kan to pass the baton to the younger generation of politicians. He advised Kan thus: “Why not go back to being as guerilla lawmaker and devote yourself to the cause of phasing out nuclear power? I believe that is the best course for you to follow at this juncture.”1

The following chart shows possible scenarios how things might unfold in the coming days. But things may change if Kan changes his mind and succumbs to Opposition pressure and leaves in grace (?), leaving the LDP to sort out the succession issue.

Kan Resignation Issue: Possible Scenarios

Deficit covering bond-issuance bill

Late Voted down/no vote held Enacted
Aug?

Kan stays in office

Moves to oust Kan continue within DPJ

Kan stays in office Kan resigns

Extraordinary Diet session convenes

No-confidence motion
against Cabinet put to vote

In the meantime, intra-party groups have started working on strategies to see that their candidates reach the helm. This is because Kan’s resignation looks certain after the stalemate was broken when the Secretaries General from the DPJ and rival LDP and New Komeito reached a consensus about the key Bill to enable the government issue deficit-covering bonds. What was pending was the final hurdle in fulfilling the three conditions set out by Kan to secure his resignation and the agreement reached on August 9 almost guaranteed that the three conditions will be fulfilled.2

If one analyses the pervailing situation, it is the group led by Ozawa that would have the decisive say in choosing Kan’s successor. But in Japanese politics, numbers do not always matter. What policy prescriptions the factions put before the people, their past images and performances are issues that are factored in choosing the leader. For example, Finance Minister Noda Yoshihiko, seen as a major contender to replace Kan, presented a paper entitled “Visions for an administration” which was published in the Bungei Shunji magazine on August 10 and circulated to about 20 of his group members. In this, Noda stressed differences between his policies and Kan’s. On the important nuclear issue, Noda wrote:

We shouldn’t halt nuclear power-related exports so hastily …It’s important to encourage diverse discussion and avoid confrontation between those calling [for Japan] to become nuclear-free and those promoting nuclear power.3

Noda also stressed the need to review Kan’s “signature style”4 of deciding policies among politicians rather than among bureaucrats.

Increasing tax could be a contentious issue in the next DPJ leadership race. Increasing the consumption tax to 10 per cent from the present five per cent may also be controversial but could be inevitable to raise money that reconstruction would require. Noda may also bank on support from Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Sengoku Yoshito.

Coming on the wake of global stock prices taking a hit and the Japanese yen’s relentless surge and thereby hitting hard Japan’s export, the publication of the paper sparked criticism from his own party, the DPJ. Noda went to the defensive and took pains to explain that the paper’s publication has nothing to do with his alleged intention to run for the DPJ presidential election.

Former Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Minister Mabuchi Sumio, and former Environment Minister Ozawa Sakihito could be in the fray for party leadership. Kano Michihiko, the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister, also has the backing of the DPJ lawmakers. It is also speculated that Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Kaieda Banri, who belongs to the group led by former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, may enter the race. While Mabuchi does not favour tax increases, Kano seems to be garnering support in the party’s lower ranks. Kaieda’s hand in the dismissal of three senior officials over poor handling of the nuclear crisis could work against his case.

So while possible candidates seem to have started to play their cards keeping an eye of the Prime Minister’s post, where are the plans of the party’s largest group led by former DPJ President Ozawa? So far, Ozawa has not come out with his preferred choice. When asked about it, Ozawa is reported to have remarked: “If it’s not Kan, it could be anybody. If they have common sense, they’ll do.” So, it would not be a surprise if a dark horse emerges from this group and this dark horse functions as Ozawa’s puppet.

In the meantime, The Yomiuri Shimbun put together a five-point proposal that includes the need to form a new government that can facilitate cross-party cooperation in post-disaster resto-ration efforts.5 The proposal calls for promoting cooperation between the ruling and Opposition camps in carrying out reconstruction projects and policies, a task that requires the adminis-tration of Prime Minister Kan Naoto to be replaced with a new government capable of demonstrating initiative in overcoming the crisis. The main pillars of Yomiuri proposal are: (a) make the best use of bureaucrats and administrative organs, (b) secure fiscal resources through consumption hike enabling the government to use the revenue in disaster-hit areas, (c) create jobs through special economic zones, (d) ease the people’s anxiety with systemic decontamination, and (e) resume nuclear power generation under state responsibility in order to face the power shortage crisis. All these proposals have merit and whosoever succeeds Kan will find his/her tasks cut out.

REFERENCES

1. Yoshibumi Wakamiya, “Kan should step down and return to being a guerilla lawmaker”, http://www.asahi.com/English/TKY2011080337.html

2. The three conditions are: enactment of an extra budget to help fund recovery from the earthquake and tsunami (already met); enactment of a bill allowing the government to borrow more fund in the 2011 $1 trillion budget (looks all but certain to be met by August-end), and Diet to pass a law promoting renewable sources of energy such as solar power before quitting (unlikely to happen).

3. Hiroshi Yumoto and Yutaka Ito, “Post-Kan DPJ preparations gathering pace”, http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T110810005847.htm

4. Ibid.

5. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T110811006314.htm

Dr Rajaram Panda is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.

He can be contacted at rajaram_panda@yahoo.co.in