Unravelling of Dystopian Reality In Trumpian World | Vijay Kumar

As expected, Donald Trump, after his inauguration of second term, is unleashing the ferocious wave of unilateralism through flurry of orders. In fact, the Trump has declared a full-frontal war on rule-based multilateral world order.

The announcement that he would claim Greenland from Denmark and Panama Canal from Panama, withdrawal from the resolution of Paris climate summit and World Health Organization (WHO) and the imposition of sanction on International Criminal Court (ICC) appear flea bite in comparison to his announcement in the company of Netanyahu, the most dreaded aggressor and violator of international law and human rights, that Gaza would be occupied by the US, and Palestinian would be relocated in Egypt and Jordon and his order dismantling US AID Program. The suspension of US AID is, in the words of Jordon Brown, former Prime Minister of England, “would cause more carnage than the earthquake of magnitude of 7 or above”.

I have been arguing since the collapse of erstwhile USSR that the cold war culminated in favour of the US because of its soft power anchored solidly in absolute right to free speech and expression guaranteed by the First Amendment. Militarily, the strength of the US and erstwhile USSR was almost on par, and results are mixed for both the countries. While Vietnam War was waterloo for US military prowess, Afghan misadventure turned out to be unmitigated disaster for USSR, and hastened the dismantling of communism. The foundation of the soft power of US stands on three pillars of unbridled freedom of speech and expression, and it’s robust enforcement by the Supreme Court, Hollywood and prestigious ivy league institutions. The USAID programme for research, especially medical research, and educational purpose consolidated it’s soft power image.

I had articulated my dystopian prognosis in my article: WHY TRUMP NEEDS TO BE TRUMPED ( Mainstream dated 14th September , 2024). I had also predicted in same article that Trump would act like bull in the China shop. Though US are not the signatory to ICC created by Rome Statute, yet it was part of that Treaty and major contributor of its functioning, like other UN Agencies. Rendering ICC impuissant would weaken the UN and embolden playpen tyrant like Putin and Netanyahu. The withdrawal of the funds for functioning of the ICC would thus result in collapse of mechanism for enforcement of international law. In the process, U.S. has repudiated it’s historical role in the creation of Nuremberg and Tokyo Tribunal to adjudicate the excesses committed by Germany and Japan in second world war.
Similarly, withdrawal from World Health Organization (WHO) would result in drying of its funding and that would have disastrous effect on medical research of humanitarian medical service rendered by that vital UN Body. The pullout from WHO is coincided by the confirmation of nomination of Robert Kennedy (Jr),a self-proclaimed and reckless vaccine sceptics as a health secretary.

The return of Trump in his second term as US President, thus, heralds return of unilateralism which had surfaced after the collapse of communism and dismantling of erstwhile USSR. But the rise of China as a great economic power and emergence of Putin as a powerful dictator paused the unilateralism of US. After a brief interlude of almost two decades, there is a recrudescence of US unilateralism in its most devastating form with the return of Trump. MAGA (make America great again) means “America only” and this narrow and insular image would mutilate the rule-based international configuration.

The cardinal constitutional principle of ‘Separation of Power’ is meaningful only when the instrument of ‘Checks and Balances’ is functional. With the emergence of trifecta by securing majority in both houses of the Congress: the House of Representative and Senate along with winning of the most powerful office of political executive of the world: U.S. Presidency, the structure of checks and balances has completely collapsed. The system of checks and balances is further weakened by the emergence of anti-people oligarchy.

The only institution that seems to living up to it’s role is the court. More than one court have paused the Trump order in respect of right of citizenship by birth for those whose parents are not U.S. born. The intervention of the courts has infuriated MAGA enthusiast who are egging Trump to ignore the court’s order. If Trump accedes to this reckless clamour, the rule of law grounded in reason would be replaced by the rule of will to the power with devastating consequences.

The need for countervailing force has thus become cri de coeur. This is moment for China and other countries of global South, including India, to come forward in support of UN and it’s agencies, especially ICC and WHO, by increasing their financial contribution. Once UN and its multiple agencies start functioning in their full capacity without critically dependent on US funding, the naked unilateralism of US would be neutralized. The aggressive unilateralism deployed by Trump desiderates the emergence of multiple countervailing centres and powers, and only then multilateral world would emerge.

(Author: Vijay Kumar, Senior Advocate, Supreme Court, and the author of book, The Theory of Basic Structure: Saviour of the Constitution and Democracy)