Donald Trump’s second Presidency: A Tentative Analysis | P. S. Jayaramu

January 22, 2025

Donald Trump formally assumed office on 20th January. In his inaugural address, Trump made certain announcements which are being interpreted across the world for their implications for the United States as well as the outside world. Here is an attempt to provide a tentative reflection of his policy statements, as a definitive assessment of his policies will have to wait for the passage of time.

In his inaugural address, President Trump described 20th January as the “liberation day” and asserted that “America’s decline is over”, as changes will come “very quickly”. He further said that America “will reclaim its rightful place as the greatest, most powerful country, most respected nation on earth, inspiring the awe and admiration from the entire world”. Quite natural to expect such words from a President who has assumed office for the second non-consecutive term backed by popular mandate and Electoral College votes. But, keeping in mind the kind of policies he is going to pursue with respect to his adversaries like China and Russia and America’s allies in the West, especially its NATO partners, not to speak of many Third World countries, it is difficult to believe that Trump’s reassumption of power will invoke respect, awe and inspiration. If anything, the countries which are going to be affected by his upcoming policies will resent, not admire, his decisions.

Evidently, China is going to be affected by his previously announced policy of higher tariffs on its exports. It is however likely that as an unpredictable leader who has an uncanny knack for “making deals” with even his adversaries, Trump might not be very harsh on Chinese goods and decide to peg them to an acceptable lower level if China yields to Trump in certain other areas, which are not clearly spelt out at present.

Trump’s decision to name the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America, is not going to be received well by Mexico, but may evoke quiet admiration from many Latin American nations. So also, Trump’s announcement that he will take back the Panama Canal is going to be resented by Denmark.

As far as the NATO partners are concerned, key members like UK and Germany will not take kindly to Trump’s proposition that they should fend for themselves with regard to the costs of their security, especially as they would be affected if Trump cuts off American contributions towards the costs of the war in Ukraine. This likely so, if a decision to end the war in Ukraine, as promised by Trump, doesn’t come about soon; the possibilities of which can not be ruled out, going by President Putin’s reported unwillingness to agree to Trump’s terms for ending the war in Ukraine.

President Trump’s decision to impose an emergency on America’s southern borders and give powers to the army to deport illegal immigrants from Mexico, as he had declared during his campaign speeches, is likely to take place, though not at the pace he expects it to be, as the logistics involved in deportation is likely to be delayed. But, the more crucial question is: are the Whites in America willing to do the menial jobs the Mexicans are doing once they are deported? Question marks are being raised on that front.

President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Accord on Climate Change is regrettable, though he was expected to do so, going by the fact that he had done that during his first term as President. It had happened then towards the end of his terms going by the technicalities involved in implementing his decision. This time round, Trump announced his decision on the first day in office iselff, indicating his stubbornness to withdraw from the accord. The catastrophic consequences of such a decision, going by the global warming and the recent wave of prolonged wildfires in Los Angeles and its consequences for the future are everyone to see. Clearly, Trump needs farsighted advisors on climate-related issues. The moot question is will he have such persons and more so, listen to their advice!

Trump’s decision to withdraw America from the WHO on the ground that the Organization did not handle the COVID-19 pandemic properly is flimsy and short-sighted. The issue, at a larger level, is going to be the future of multilateral agencies and multilateralism itself. Trump’s talk of America First as a rhetoric is alright, but he must know if he wants the World to respect America, he should reciprocate by not pursuing a variant of Isolationism, but, agree to selectively, at least, engage America in global organisations like the WHO. One shudders to think what would Trump’s attitude to the United Nations itself is going to be, if he decides to look at issues from the perspective of what he gains from such global engagement. America cannot reclaim its position in World affairs if its leader pursues a withdrawal policy. As the pre-eminent power with a pluralist democratic ethos, America and its leadership must realise that while it has global interests, it has global responsibilities too.

Indo-US relations:

Turning briefly to the implications of Trump’s Presidency on Indo-American relations, it needs to be stressed that the two issues which are going to have their impact are the H1B visas and tariff on Indian exports to the US. Associated with the H1B visa issue is the citizenship question to children of Indian nationals, especially skilled tech personnel working in the US. There are reports of about 7.25 lakh Indians( including students and non-tech persons) working/ studying in the US), who are likely to be affected. Reportedly, the Government of India has agreed to take back 18000 persons back to the country because of the dubious status of their stay in the US. How will the larger issue going to be handled depends on the delicate diplomatic dialogue that is will have to take place between the Indian and American officials under the guidance of their respective politicals.

The issue of heightened tariff on Indian goods entering America needs pragmatic handling by the two countries, given India’s rapid strides in IT and Space technologies. It remains to be seen to whom it may concern extent the Indian Americans who are part of the Trump cabinet are going to be helpful to India on this issue remains to be seen. It appears that India should be prepared for a certain higher tariff on its goods. How will it affect our economy and balance of payments position is another matter.

The other associated issues which will impact the Indo-US bilateral relations are India’s proximity to Russia and our expanding role in the Global South, especially the G-20 grouping. The Trump Administration is likely to pressurise India to lower its ties with Russia as well as its involvement in the G-20 as a trade-off for possible concessions on the Visa and tariff fronts. Clearly, President Trump is opposed to the idea of any effort to question America’s dollar supremacy. How far the Modi regime will go with the other members of the G-20 in their quest for an eventual alternative to the US dollar as the currency for international trade needs a c.ose watch. External Affairs Minister Dr. Subrahmaniam’s job is going to be unenviable, to say the least.

In closing, it can be stated that Donald Trump’s second Presidency will be keenly watched by all—his supporters within the US, the Opposition Democrats, who will take time to recover, and the countries, including India, which are going to be affected by his Policies. Will Trump be high on rhetoric and low and accommodative in actual Policies will be on the radar screen of Policy makers and analysts?

(Author: Prof. P. S. Jayaramu is former Dean, Faculty of Arts, Bangalore University and former Senior Fellow, ICSSR, New Delhi)