Hemant’s Triumph: How Welfare and Tribal Support Sank BJP’s Hopes | Chhotelal Kumar

The 2024 Jharkhand Assembly election, concluded on November 23, saw a resounding victory for the JMM-led INDIA alliance, which secured a remarkable 56 out of 81 seats. This outcome was particularly striking given the expectations of a tight race, with most analysts and pollsters predicting a close contest. However, the election results showcased the dominance of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) in the state, especially among Adivasi voters and women.
In the concluded Jharkhand assembly election, the JMM-led INDIA alliance secured 56 seats, the highest number of seats for any coalition and for JMM in its history of electoral politics. Under this alliance, JMM won 34 seats out of 43 contested with a massive winning rate of 79%; Congress, the second largest party in the alliance, won 16 seats out of 30, less than one seat compared to 2019, where it contested 31 seats. RJD has also performed emphatically by winning four seats out of 6 seats it contested, with a record strike rate of 66.6%. CPI (ML) won 2 seats out of 4 contested with a winning rate of 50%. On the other hand, the BJP, despite being in an alliance, unlike in 2019 with AJSU, performed poorly. It managed to win only 21 seats out of 68 contested, and AJSU slumped to its lowest performance ever in Jharkhand, winning just one seat out of 10 contested with a meagre strike rate of 10%. JD (U) won 1 seat out of 2 seats contested, and LJP (RV) won 1 out of one contested.

This assembly election saw something new that it had never seen before in its electoral history: the rise of a popular young leader who has mass appeal. Jairam Mahto, a PhD student, emerged on the political canvas of Jharkhand with students protesting over exams and systematic corruption in the state. In only 2 years, he received a massive following from the youths and Jharkhandi people. His party, Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JLKM), had performed well in its first election, where they contested the Lok Sabha election in 2024. Jairam from his Lok Sabha constituency secured more than 3 lakh votes. Similarly, in the assembly election, they mobilised a significant number of votes in its favour but won just one seat, Dumri (won by Jairam himself). In total, JLKM has received close to 6% of popular votes in the state, which is more than 10 lakh. Further, it is estimated that they have played spoiler in at least 13 seats, Where they have managed to win more votes than the victory margin of the winning candidate. A famous example is from the Silli constituency, where AJSU chief Sudesh Mahto was contesting the election; he lost to the JMM candidate by around 23 thousand votes, almost half of all the votes secured by the JLKM candidate. Similarly, in Chandankiyari, here, leader of the opposition, Amar Kumar Bauri, was fighting an election, and he came third, while the seat won by JMM, the JLKM candidate won more than 56 thousand votes and came second. The rise of JLKM in Jharkhand did more damage to the NDA than the INDIA alliance in this assembly election. This could be explained by the fact that JLKM shares the same vote bank of Kudmi-Mahto as AJSU, an NDA ally. Jairam himself, like AJSU chief Sudesh Mahto, comes from the Kudmi-Mahto community. Furthermore, Jairam is very popular among youths, who usually vote in large numbers for AJSU and BJP.

Since 2014, the BJP has consistently gone down when it comes to winning Adivasi reserve seats in Jharkhand. In 2014, it managed to win 11 seats out of 28 ST reserve seats, but in 2019, it only won 2 seats, and now it further slumped to just one seat in 2024. Even in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, it did not win any 5 ST reserve seats in the state. In recent years, the BJP has made a huge effort to mobilise Adivasi voters in its favour across the country (Janjatiya Gaurav Divas, President of India, First Adivasi CM of Odisha, and many others). But despite all these efforts, it has failed to bring them into the BJP fold. In the Jharkhand assembly election, it had gone with the ’Infiltration narrative’, which closely linked with its other narrative of ’Beti, Roti, Mati’. Both narratives were aimed at targeting Adivasi voters, specifically from the Santhal Pargana and Kolhan regions. Using the narrative of Bangladeshi Muslim Infiltration, who is stealing their land and daughters, the BJP wanted to serve at least three main purposes. First, to consolidate Adivasi voters in its favour away from JMM; Second, to consolidate its own Hindutva voters, especially non-Adivasi; and lastly, to convey a message to RSS that it believes in Hindutva ideology and desires to bring Adivasi (Vanvasi for RSS) into the larger Hindu fold. Santhal Pargana and Kolhan have been an enigma for the BJP when it comes to winning seats here. In the 2019 assembly election, BJP failed to win even a single seat out of 16 ST reserve seats in these two regions. Similarly, in 2024, it won only one seat, which was won by JMM turncoat and former CM Champai Soren. Furthermore, BJP failed to capitalise on any 11 ST seats in South Chotanagpur, where it had won 2 seats in 2019.

Women have emerged as one of the most welfare-targeted vote banks for parties across the country. In Jharkhand, where women constitute 1.28 crore out of a total of 2.59 crore voters in the state. In at least 32 assembly constituencies, women outnumbered men, and 26 of these are in ST reserve seats. Adivasi women voters in large numbers compared to Adivasi men in Jharkhand. To capitalise on women voters, especially Adivasi women, JMM had strategically started "Maiyya Samman Yojana" (Rs 1000 cash benefit to women age group 18-50) two to three months before the election, and it made sure it paid three-four instalments of it. In addition to this scheme, the Hemant government also has different schemes (Pensions for Old Age, Destitute Women, AIDS, Disability and PVTGs) where it pays at least Rs 1000 to beneficiaries. All these beneficiaries constitute almost 40 lakh people, which is 10% of the state population. It has often been found that paying cash to women often made them surpass their immediate identities ( caste and religion) and vote based on economic considerations. This has made them a coherent labharthi, and Hemant has successfully mobilised these in its favour.

INDIA alliance (especially JMM) emphatic wins could be attributed to retaining Adivasi voters, women and other labharthi in its favour. Despite having to face an anti-incumbency wave, Hemant successfully generated sympathy for himself during his arrest and won his traditional seat, Barhait, with record margins of more than 39 thousand. Looking at the political performance of JMM over the years, it becomes very evident that Hemant Soren has emerged as a strong leader of JMM and under him, JMM’s performance has consistently improved over the years. Winning 34 seats in Jharkhand was the highest for JMM in their electoral history. And it is very safe to say that Hemant Soren has emerged as the true successor and sole leader of Jharkhand, like his father, Shibu Soren.

(Author: Chhotelal Kumar is a PhD scholar at the Centre for Political Studies, his area of interest lies in South Asia, Adivasi Studies, and Indian politics)