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Mainstream, Vol 62 No 48, Nov 30, 2024

Radical Socialist Statement on Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand | Nov 26, 2024

Friday 29 November 2024

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The BJP and its allied forces have swung back with great force in Maharashtra, and while they have been blocked in Jharkhand electorally, it does not mean they have been weakened.

The Maharashtra results have come as a blow to many. After the strong showing by anti-BJP forces in the Parliamentary elections earlier this year, there had been an upbeat mood in the INDIA camp and its left wing supporters. The election results show that in order to win, the BJP has more weapons in its arsenal. It combined extremely aggressive Hindutva, going to the extent of criticising its Shiv Sena ally for suggesting that it was preferable to talk about development. At the same time, its target Hindutva this time had an added dimension – a sharp opposition to any caste census. Alongside this, the NDA took up the question of poverty in its own way. Not of course to tackle Adani and Ambani, nor to focus on any redistribution. However, taking a cue from Shivraj Chouhan of Madhya Pradesh, the NDA in Maharashtra started targeted women centric programmes, including the Ladki Bahin yojana. Launched just months before the assembly elections targeting one crore women aged 21 to 65 with an annual family income below Rs 2.5 lakh. Under the scheme, eligible women received Rs 1,500 per month, with a pre-election promise of raising it to Rs 2100. The fact that the Congress, the originator of the Neoliberal policies from back in the early 1990s, could certainly not go for a very different model, meant a triumph for the BJP. As it has been noted by bourgeois commentators, basically similar policies were offered by the opposition. Extreme poverty continues to exist in the country, with India ranking 105th in the Global Hunger Index out of 127 countries. In Maharashtra, one of the better off provinces, the gap is still considerable between the well off and the poor. The latest NITI Aayog report shows that in Nagpur, Pune, Sangli, and Wardha districts, 3-4 per cent of the population is deprived of multiple health and education benefits and basic household amenities, while more than 10 per cent of the people in several districts in Vidarbha and Marathwada regions are multidimensionally poor. This proportion is as high as 33 per cent and 24 per cent in Nandurbar and Dhule respectively. Consequently, the direct cash flow to women heads of families and the promise to increase the amount if again voted to power, is one that captured the woman voter. And of course, immediately after the elections, government bureaucrats are sounding the tocsin, suggesting that the increase to Rs. 2100 might not be possible.

The Jharkhand elections had also seen the same tactical line, except this time pursued by the JMM-Congress bloc. In both provinces women voted in larger numbers than in the past, and we can confidently assert that part of that trend was due to the policy of cash transfer.

A difference that exists of course is that Jharkhand is a predominantly Adivasi state, where the campaign for Hindutva and a Uniform Civil (ie Hindu) code has been bitterly contested, and where the aggressive campaigns against so called outsiders did not pay off.

As after every election a part of the oppositionist voices have been talking about rigging through the EVMs. One parliamentary seat however puts that to some serious question. In the Nanded parliamentary seat by-poll, Congress (586788) defeated BJP (585331). In the assembly segments making up Nanded parliamentary constituency, where polls were held at the same time, BJP defeated Congress in all six seats, and the BJP polled in total across those six assembly seats 612062 votes, while the total votes polled by Congress came to 427465.Clearly, sometimes different calculations went into how to vote for parliament and how to vote for assembly elections. On the other hand, some degree of EVM manipulation is clearly at work, as shown by the complaint of Fahad Ahmad, the NCP Shrad Pawar candidate in Anushakti Nagar, who alleged that after leading all the rounds till 16, EVM machines that were 99% charged were opened, allowing NCP Ajit Pawar candidate Sana Malik to take the lead.

Too many commentators, even on the left, are however getting stuck with these minutiae. The core issue is, as Radical Socialist has repeatedly stressed, the following

· First, that the Nehruvian hegemony has been replaced by a Hindutva hegemony. Regardless of whether a fully fascist police state is imposed or not, the bulk of the opposition, including too many left-leaning liberals, are operating within the boundaries set by Hindutva hegemony.

· Second, that this cannot be overturned by prioritising electoral battles. Rather, only through mass movements of the exploited and oppressed with clear class orientation can alternative politics be developed. With the bulk of the Indian left divided between a class collaborationist majority prioritising alliances with bourgeois liberalism and a sectarian minority that rejects the class collaborationist left along with the bourgeoisie, such an alternative approach cannot develop.

26/11/2024

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