2024 Assembly Elections: Rahul, take a few lessons from the BJP | Faraz Ahmad

November 24, 2024

It’s time the Congress party, presumably leading the INDIA bloc, ought to be learning a few lessons from the BJP.

Despite the media hype there is still no clarity how effective Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s slogan of ‘Ek hain to safe hain’ (We are safe if we’re united) or Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s more divisive call, “Batenge to katenge’ (We shall get slaughtered if we stand divided) were in sending the message to their voters. Possibly these worked, say the results not just in Maharashtra but in all other BJP-ruled states, except a freak sole Congress victory in Madhya Pradesh by-poll.

To be sure there seems to be evidence that the BJP manages to ‘loot’ the elections wherever it is in power, giving rise to the conclusion that the state bureaucracy is working as an election agent of the BJP in tandem with the Election Commission to ensure startling results for the ruling party.

Ajit Pawar, leading the breakaway faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) whom all analysts and pollsters had written off, post the Lok Sabha polls, won 41 seats with 9 per cent votes against Sharad Pawar’s parent NCP just winning 10 seats with 11.3 per cent votes. It makes little sense not just in mathematical terms but even politically since in the Lok Sabha elections, Ajit could not even secure the victory for his wife against Supriya Sule, Sharad Pawar’s daughter. Suddenly the voters became so overwhelmed by Ajit Pawar’s appeal that they brushed aside Sharad Pawar and rushed behind Pied Piper Ajit!

Look at that Eknath Shinde who betrayed Udhav Thackeray to whisk away two-thirds of Udhav’s MLAs to form a BJP-led government and become the chief minister. In 2019 the united Shiv Sena under Udhav’s leadership won 56 seats. But now Shinde faction alone won 57 while all the sympathy and anger of Balasaheb’s loyal followers for his heir apparent vanished into thin air leaving Udhav only with 10 per cent votes and just 20 seats. And Congress? The general assessment of the Congress after the 2019 Assembly results was that in its once impregnable fort Maharashtra it could not do worse when it won only 44 seats. Then in the last Lok Sabha elections earlier this year the Congress did exceedingly well by winning 13 seats as against just one in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. What a rise for the Congress in the Lok Sabha polls and what a rout from an anticipated triple-digit figure going by the Lok Sabha polls to just 16 Assembly seats in this round! Same was the comparative fate of the Udhav’s and Sharad Pawar’s party.

What a boost it has given to Modi and the BJP who till yesterday were reeling under the fallout of the Adani scam! Imagine now how Modi, Amit Shah, Yogi Adityanath et al will crow in the Parliament session beginning Monday. What is there to hold back the double engine government of the BJP to hand over Dharavi to Adani, even though it is the Congress MLA who won in Dharavi. But then again who’s to blame? The Congress and even Rahul Gandhi more so than anyone else. It was amply clear that the stakes were high for Modi and BJP after this disclosure of Adani scam a day after polling, it had become even more evident that were the BJP to lose this round, From hindsight it appears that Modani suppressed this bit of news through their channels till November 20 the polling date. The Opposition morale would have been too high for Modi to face. But the boot is now in the other foot. This fallout could have been anticipated by all the players.

The Modi/BJP compulsions were there all to see. It required for the INDIA bloc to send across a message that they stood as an impregnable wall against the Mahayuti effort to breakthrough? Did they? No. And the greater share of this goes not just to the Congress party but to Rahul Gandhi and Congress president Malikarjun Kharge. For months Udhav was coming to Delhi to seek a full understanding of seat sharing and resolving the leadership issue. I had attempted to underline the need for a sound and evident understanding between Udhav and Rahul Gandhi/Kharge. It was quite simple neither the Congress nor Sharad had a CM face to project. What then prevented the Congress to project Udhav, secure some more seats in the bargain and stand united as a one solid phalanx of Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in a series of rallies all around the state? It is for instance a bit bewildering why Rahul had to sped so much time in Waynad where the victory of Pryanka Gandhi Vadra was a foregone conclusion the moment that announcement was made. Instead, Rahul was required to boost the campaign in Maharashtra, which seemed missing.

I would also hold Congress leaders responsible for the dismal performance of the Samajwadi Party (SP) against the BJP and RLD in UP by-polls. While it is commendable of Rahul and Congress not to set up candidate in UP by elections, preventing any division of votes against the BJP, a couple of joint rallies of Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul/Priyanka would have persuaded the Congress workers to come out and campaign for the defeat of the BJP. Not just, that even after the results while questioning the conduct of the Election Commission and the bureaucracy why did Congress spokesmen Jairam Ramesh and Pawan Khera not utter a word on Muslim women in UP being prevented by gun totting policemen from reaching the polling booths. Was it not incumbent on all INDIA bloc partners to jointly raise this issue with all the vehemence at their command?

In Haryana Bhupinder Singh Hooda became the fall guy and justifiably so, because he refused to accommodate even his party’s other leaders like Kumari Selja and Randeep Surjewala leave alone INDIA allies AAP and Samajwadi Party. In Madhya Pradesh the onus fell on Kamal Nath for rebuffing Samajwadi Party disdainfully. In Rajasthan Ashok Gehlot had to take the blame of the loss for his cussed rivalry with a young Sachin Pilot.

But what about Rahul? He is the Leader of Opposition, representing all the Opposition parties and Groups in and outside Parliament House. After his successful Bharat Jodo Yatras I and II, seen as leading the INDIA bloc, isn’t it incumbent upon him to be seen in public spaces with other INDIA bloc leaders, which ever state he is appearing on public platforms. But that is not the impression one gets anymore.

Its not just Maharashtra, but BJP has swept the bypolls in each and every state it is ruling. On the other hand, be it Karnataka, or Kerala or Punjab, or Sikkim, and not to forget West Bengal BJP has scored a big zero. And in Jharkhand where it worked even harder to wrest power from Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and its leader chief minister Hemant Soren, it was completely routed. But the credit goes only to Hemant Soren, his wife Kalpana Soren and most of all the Adivasi voters who rejected the communally vituperative campaign of Modi, Amit Shah, Sarma, and Aditynath, not to the Congress nor to the RJD, none of whom were seen anywhere. Imagine not for a long time the RJD won as many as four seats in Jharkhand and this time it did. All the success of Hemant and his wife Kalpana.

The lesson to Rahul and INDIA bloc leaders for the coming round of Bihar assembly polls next is very clear faced with a predator BJP— stand and be seen united and assertively so.