Interpreting the 2024 Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assembly Election results and the by-polls | P. S. Jayaramu

November 24, 2024

The much-awaited results of the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections and the less publicised by-polls are out. They need an interpretation.

Maharastra :

The BJP-Shiv Sena combine, known as the Mahayuti, has created a historic record by winning a landslide victory in Maharashtra, with the BJP on its own winning in132 of the 149 constituencies it contested, amounting to 88.6 percent victory. The Shiv Sena (popularly known as Shinde Sena) contested in 80 constituencies and won 57 seats with 71.3 percent win. The NCP, led by Ajit Pawar contested in 59 constituencies, winning 41 of them with 69.5 percent win.

The Maha Vikas Avadi ( MVA) failed in the electoral arena. The Congress Party performed miserably winning in only 16 of the 100 seats it contested. Sena (UBT) contested 94 seats but won in only 20 constituencies. The NCP, Sharad Pawar group, fielded candidates in 86 constituencies and won only 16 seats. The performance of the MVA has been so low that it has failed to capture 10 percent of the total 288 seats. Even the Congress Party fails to qualify for the Leader of Opposition (LoP) position. With its steam-roller majority, the BJP alliance (Mahayuti) will rule for the next five years, perhaps in an unquestioned manner. Bad news for democracy, but, something for which the Opposition MVA has to blame itself.

The election results convey the following messages :

1. The Mahayuti, was quick to learn lessons from the Lok Sabha debacle and introduced the corrective measures right in earnestness. The perceived upcoming loss of seats in Vidharbha and Maratwada regions, because of the Maratha reservation demand/agitation, was overcome by wooing the OBC votes, the results of which were seen in the electoral victories it reaped in the twin regions.

2. The Shinde government went about dealing with the farmers’ problems by announcing 20 percent MSP price for soya beans and cotton, if voted back to power, a promise which seems to have struck the right chord with the farmers.

3. Most importantly, Shinde government’s Ladki Behana scheme which was implemented three months before the elections resulted in ? 1500 being put in the bank accounts of poor women voters. So much so, there seems to have been a 20 percent increase in the women votes across regions to the Mahayuti.

4. With such results, the battle at the popular level as to which Sena and which NCP are the real ones seems to have been settled. The UBT and its leadership which failed to reach out to the masses have lost badly in the eyes of the ordinary voters. While Sharad Pawar campaigned vigorously in his stronghold Baramati, he was not able to get his nephew elected there. Ajit Pawar-led NCP has extended its sway over Western Maharastra ( 22 seats), Marathwada (10) and Vidharbha (5). His apology for putting up his wife against Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule in the Lok Sabha elections seems to have worked.

5. The larger explanation for the BJP’s victory is to be seen in its organisational strength backed up by the RSS which exhaustively involved itself in the campaign by conducting reportedly 60000 meetings throughout the State. This was in contrast to its low-key involvement, barring Nagpur, in the Lok Sabha poll campaign five months ago. The BJP-RSS ‘feud’ was put behind this time round. BJP’s financial resources too seems played a significant role, as is well known.

6. In contrast, the Congress Party’s campaign was sporadic and far from satisfactory, led by the complacency that it will win in a big way. The local level leaders hardly did any serous campaigning. Additionally, Rahul Gandhi’s campaign speeches, (which were very few only) and his waving the ‘red book’ Indian Constitution, did not resonate with the State’s electorate who treated the assembly elections as being purely on local-issues specific. His tirade against Adani and industries and jobs being shifted to Gujarat by the Shinde government too failed to have any appeal with the voters. The Congress leadership will have to seriously introspect, change its strategies and come up with narratives which would be voter-friendly in future electoral battles. Even lesdership changes at the top level by bringing in young blood is an imperative. As for Maharastra, there was hardly any acceptable narrative. It’s caste-census pitch did not work as the results show.

Jharkhand :

1. In contrast to its astounding victory in Maharastra, the BJP failed to make any impact on the State’s electorate. The JMM-Congress-RJD alliance (INDIA bloc) performed very well by returning to power. The JMM led by the sitting chief minister Hemant Soren was able to beat the anti-incumbency factor and return to power by winning 34 seats ( +4) and the Congress retained its 16 seats and the RJD won 4 seats, while others bagged 6 seats. JMM’s strike rate was 79%, up from 69.76 in 2019, while the Congress Party’s strike rate went up marginally from 51.61% to 53%.

2. In an assembly consisting of 81 seats, with the JMM winning 34 seats, Congress 16, RJD 4 and others 6 ( BJP won only 21 seats) Hemant Soren-led JMM combine enjoy a very comfortable majority. Soren’s outreach to the tribal voters and promise to preserve and nurture their identity, the sympathy factor consequent to his being jailed for nearly six months and the appeal of his wife Kalpana Soren to the voters contributed to his impressive success.

3. BJP’s wooing of Champai Soren to its side did not yield any rewards to the Party. Likewise, the erstwhile Congress C M and present President of the State unit of the BJP, Babulal Marandi, though won his seat, could not sway the electorate to the BJP’s fold.

4. Though the Congress Party can console itself that it will be part of the government, the victory itself was largely facilitated by Hemant Soren.

The by-poll results :

1. The Congress candidate Priyanka Gandhi Vadra who contested from the Wayanad seat which was vacated by Rahul Gandhi registered a spectacular victory by winning with a margin of 4.1 lakh votes, nearly 50000 more than her brother Rahul Gandhi. With her victory, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will be in the Lok Sabha along with Rahul Gandhi and her mother Sonia Gandhi in the Rajya Sabha.

2. The by-poll results in the 9 constituencies in UP have helped Yogi Adityanath to refurbish his lost image from the Lok Sabba drubbing he suffered as the party candidates won in 6 out of 9 constituencies. The SP won 2 seats while the RLD won 1seat.

3. In Rajasthan, out of the 7, the BJP won in 5, Congress 1, and BAP 1. In Assam, the BJP won in all the 6 constituencies. In Punjab, BJP bagged 4 with 1 going to the AAP, while in Bihar out of the 4, BJP secured 2 while JDU and HMM secured 1 seat each.

4 In Bengal, the BJP came a cropper as the TMC won in all the six constituencies which went to the pools. Bengal remains an impregnable fortress for the BJP.

5. Likewise in Karnataka, out of the three by-polls, the Congress government led by Siddaramaiah registered victories in all the three constituencies. Channapatna which was a stronghold of the JDS leaders Kumaraswamy and the former prime minister Deve Gowda, where Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil Kumaraswamy was the NDA candidate, lost for the third successive time to the erstwhile BJP leader Yogeswhar, who contested the by-poll as Congress candidate, having entered the party one day before the nominations were to close. Like Bengal, Karnataka too was impregnable to the BJP.

Conclusions:

1. The victory in Maharastra has come as a boost to the BJP led by the duo- Narendra Modi-Amit Shah. The victory in Haryana earlier had added to their mastery over electoral strategizing- cum-management. With the Maharastra victory, their hold over the NDA coalition is probably going to be uncontested. The TDP led by Chandrababu Naidu will continue to be dependent on Modi, what with its ex-bureaucrat/s reportedly involved in the recent bribery issue in the Adanigate. The other senior coalition partner and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar will continue to be a pliant partner in view of the Bihar Assembly elections in October /November 2025.

2. The victory of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra shows that the Gandhi family still attracts the voters even in a highly literate State like Kerala. This is in contrast to the BJL’s sustained criticism of the Gandhi dynasty.

3. The Maharastra and Jharkhand electoral outcomes have demonstrated, yet again, that the Indian voters are very mature and know whom they should give the reins of power. They can not be taken for granted. Voter sovereignty remains the silver lining of Indian Democracy, despite its many flaws.

(Author: Dr. P. S. Jayaramu is former Dean, Faculty of Arts at Bangalore University and a former Senior Fellow, ICSSR, New Celhi)