Polarisation, Promises, and Power: Unpacking the Jharkhand 2024 Assembly Election | Chhotelal Kumar

Abstract

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2024 Jharkhand assembly election, examining key themes such as the influence of Adivasi voters, the strategic appeal to women voters, the role of youth engagement, and the emergence of new leaders like Jairam Mahato. Drawing on data to support the analysis, the piece explores the central issues shaping Jharkhand’s political landscape and the factors likely to determine the electoral outcome. By examining these themes, the article aims to offer a nuanced perspective on the political dynamics at play, making it a valuable resource for understanding the complexities of the upcoming election.

Key Words : Jharkhand Assembly Election, Adivasi, JMM, Bangladeshi Infiltration, Development;

Jharkhand is unique in India as it is the only state where Adivasis play a significant role in shaping political discourse. Since its formation on November 15, 2000, when it was separated from Bihar, the state has experienced a turbulent political environment. This year, Jharkhand is approaching its sixth state assembly election in its 25-year history. So far, the state has had seven different Chief Ministers, and except for Raghubar Das, none have completed a full term. Interestingly, even an independent candidate, Madhu Koda, managed to become Chief Minister. Over these 25 years, Jharkhand has also been placed under President’s Rule three times. To date, no political party in the state has secured the majority of 41 seats in the 81-member assembly. Currently, the BJP holds 26 seats, the AJSU 3, the JMM 30, the Congress 16, and the RJD 1, totalling 47 seats for the India alliance. Jharkhand has a total of 81 assembly seats, and any party or alliance needs to secure at least 41 seats to achieve a majority. Out of these, 28 seats are reserved for Scheduled Tribes, 9 seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes, and the remaining 44 are general seats.

The BJP has faced significant challenges in winning over Adivasi voters in Jharkhand. In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the party failed to secure any of the five Scheduled Tribe (ST) reserved seats in the state. This issue also arose during the 2019 assembly elections, where the BJP won only 2 out of 28 reserved seats. In Jharkhand, 21 out of 24 districts have a population of at least 100,000 Adivasis. There are 43 assembly seats where tribal communities make up at least 20% of the population, and in 22 of these seats, they hold a majority. In the 2019 assembly elections, the JMM won 19 out of the 28 Adivasi reserved seats, while the BJP’s performance slumped from 11 seats in 2014 to just 2 in 2019. Despite this decline in the number of seats, when looking at the vote share percentage in the ST reserved seats, the BJP secured 33.5%, while the JMM received 34.16%, reflecting a difference of less than 1%. This indicates that the BJP still retains a substantial share of non-Adivasi votes in those areas. And any shift of Adivasi voters in its favour could make electorally huge difference.

In recent years, the BJP, under Modi’s leadership, has made significant efforts to win over Adivasi communities across the country. Notably, it appointed Droupadi Murmu, an Adivasi leader, as the President of India, which was the first time any Adivasi occupied a top position in the country. Additionally, after its victory in Odisha, a bordering state of Jharkhand, the BJP appointed an Adivasi Chief Minister in that state. To further demonstrate its commitment, the party has launched several Adivasi-centric initiatives. For example, it introduced a ?24,000 crore scheme for Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups (PVTG) and established Janjatiya Gaurav Diwas to celebrate tribal heritage. However, an interesting development is that Babulal Marandi, the prominent Adivasi face of the BJP, is contesting from a general seat in Dhanwar. Marandi previously made headlines when he defeated JMM founder Shibu Soren in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections from the Dumka constituency, which is a reserved seat for Scheduled Tribes.

To weaken the JMM’s consolidated vote bank, especially in the Santhal Pargana region, the BJP has attempted to use the issue of Bangladeshi infiltration as a way to polarise voters and shift Adivasi support away from the JMM. Santhal Pargana is significant, as it contains 18 of the 28 ST reserved seats and is a stronghold for the JMM. Interestingly, the BJP has chosen to focus on the narrative of Muslim (Bangladeshi) infiltration rather than targeting other minorities, such as Christians. This is likely due to the fact that a large number of Adivasis in the region practice Christianity, which could negatively impact the BJP’s efforts to win Adivasi-reserved seats. However, the BJP is aware that using infiltration as a polarising tactic may not be effective, as it lacks a strong presence in the region. Furthermore, the Ministry of Home Affairs has not found any evidence linking Bangladeshi infiltrators to the acquisition of tribal lands, indicating that this strategy may not resonate with voters as intended. This strategy could serve three purposes for the BJP: first, it helps draw Adivasi communities closer to Hinduism and the BJP. Second, it appeals to the BJP’s core voter base, and third, it aligns with the RSS’s broader agenda. The RSS’s role could be pivotal for the BJP in Jharkhand, as it was in the recent Haryana election.

Recognising that managing infiltration is primarily the central government’s responsibility, the BJP has tried to portray the issue as part of a deliberate political strategy by the JMM-Congress alliance to secure votes. In one of his speeches in Jharkhand, Prime Minister Modi emphasised that Bangladeshi and Rohingya infiltration poses a significant threat, claiming it is rapidly altering the demographic landscape of Santhal Pargana. Other prominent BJP leaders, such as Babulal Marandi and Nishikant Dubey, have echoed this sentiment, alleging that the JMM-Congress coalition supports a narrative of "Love, Land, and Jihad." Marandi has warned in several speeches that by 2031, Muslims could outnumber the tribal population in the Santhal Pargana region. These statements aim to stoke fears among voters and mobilise support for the BJP by suggesting that Adivasi interests are under threat.
The unexpected removal of Champai Soren from his position as Chief Minister and his subsequent exit from the JMM could potentially sway some Adivasi votes against the party, particularly in his home region of Kolhan. This area comprises 21 assembly seats, and the BJP has consistently struggled to gain a foothold here, losing all contested seats in the 2019 assembly elections and performing poorly in previous elections as well. To appeal to the Adivasi population in Kolhan, the BJP has brought Champai on board and implemented various strategies to influence voters. The Kolhan Division includes the districts of East Singhbhoom, West Singhbhoom, and Saraikela Kharsawan. In this region, PM Modi has made two visits this year, launching schemes aimed at the local population, and Amit Shah held his Vijay Sankalp Rally there in 2023. The JMM has historically performed well in Kolhan, winning 11 out of 14 seats in the 2019 assembly elections.
However, it has often been observed that leaders switching from the JMM to the BJP have not experienced significant success, especially in this region. Champai himself barely won his seat in the last election. Moreover, the BJP has faced its own challenges, with some popular leaders like Lois Marandi, Kunal Sarangi, and Lakshman Tudu leaving the party, which could further affect its chances of winning in certain constituencies.

In recent years, there has been a significant shift in focus toward women voters in India, whether in Lok Sabha or assembly elections. In Jharkhand, there are 1.28 crore women voters out of a total of 2.59 crore. Women outnumber men in 32 of the 81 constituencies, with 26 of these seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes. In the most recent Lok Sabha election, women voted in greater numbers than men. It has become a common electoral strategy to engage women voters through various women-centric policies. Several leaders across different political parties have successfully leveraged this outreach to connect with half of the country’s voting population. Notable examples include Nitish Kumar in Bihar, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, and Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh. Under Chouhan’s leadership, the BJP is contesting the assembly election in Jharkhand. Following the success of the ‘Ladli Behna Yojana’ in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP has launched the ‘Gogo Didi Yojana’ in Jharkhand, which will provide ?2,100 to every woman aged 18 to 60. "Gogo" is a Santhali word meaning mother.

Unlike the JMM, the BJP is still having difficulty presenting any female leader as a representative for engaging women voters in the state. Recognising the influence of women voters, the JMM has launched the ‘Maiyya Samman Yojana,’ which initially offered ?1,000 per month to women aged 18 to 50, which eventually increased to the amount of ?2,500. The arrest of Hemant Soren has unexpectedly benefited the JMM by introducing Kalpana Soren into politics. After her husband’s arrest, Kalpana decided to run for election from the Gandey constituency, where she won by over 30,000 votes. She has since emerged as a popular leader in Jharkhand. It’s fair to say that she is currently the most prominent female leader in the state. Given her success, Kalpana has become the face of the JMM’s outreach to women and the Maiyya Samman Yojana. Additionally, the JMM has made strides by disbursing the benefits of the scheme three times already and planning a fourth payment before the election voting day in November. To popularise the scheme among women, the Hemant government initiated the ‘Maiya Samman Yatra,’ led by Kalpana Soren.

Jairam Mahato is emerging as a popular youth leader in Jharkhand, unlike anything the state has seen before. He positions himself as a radical new voice in politics, one that truly understands the challenges faced by young people and the people of Jharkhand. Jairam rose to prominence during student protests against the government’s failure to conduct fair examinations. In his aggressive speeches, he frequently uses terms like "Khatiyan," such as land displacement, labour migration, employment, and the state’s mineral wealth, to resonate with the struggles of the local population. Importantly, he hails from the Kurmi-Mahato community, which makes up over 15% of the state’s population and indirectly influences 32-35 assembly seats. In 6-7 of those seats, the Kurmi-Mahato community represents more than 70% of the population. Jairam’s rise could threaten the electoral prospects of other parties, particularly the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), which shares a similar voter base. AJSU leader Sudesh Mahato also belongs to the Kurmi-Mahato community, the same as Jairam. During his Lok Sabha campaign, he garnered nearly 3.5 lakh votes, indicating a significant following.

Jairam Mahato’s party, the Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JLKM), is contesting the election independently. His party is expected to perform well in Kurmi-Mahato strongholds such as Giridih, Ramgarh, Hazaribagh, Koderma, and Ranchi. Additionally, they are attempting to position themselves as an inclusive secular party to attract Muslim voters, which could create challenges for Congress. However, both JLKM and AJSU may face difficulties in winning tribal seats, especially given the Kurmi population’s demands for Scheduled Tribe (ST) status, which raises concerns among Adivasis regarding control over land, water, and forests (Jal, Jangal, and Jameen).

A significant portion of Jharkhand’s population receives benefits from various government schemes in one form or another. The Jharkhand government provides a monthly payment of ?1,000 to eligible pensioners across five categories: the Old Age Pension Scheme, HIV-AIDS Patient Pension, Disability Pension, Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group Pension, and the Destitute Women Pension Scheme. These initiatives benefit nearly 40 lakh people in the state, which is more than 10% of the population. In contrast, the Union government offers lower amounts for three similar schemes—Old Age Pension, Widow Pension, and Disability Pension—paying only ?200 to ?500. The Jharkhand government’s increase to ?1,000 is a significant boost. However, it’s important to note that not all beneficiaries may directly attribute their benefits to the Hemant government; often, people associate these schemes with the Union government. Ultimately, whether Hemant can effectively leverage these benefits to gain votes will depend on his government’s outreach efforts.

One issue that could negatively impact the alliance’s prospects is the problem of seat distribution among its partners. When Hemant Soren announced that the JMM would contest 71 seats, the RJD opposed this decision, viewing it as a unilateral move. Ultimately, the coalition reached a compromise where the JMM would contest 40 seats, the Congress 30, the RJD 7, and the Left 4. However, interestingly, there are still two seats where the alliance partners are competing against each other. For instance, in the Dhanwar seat, which is a stronghold of Babulal Marandi, both the Left and the JMM are contesting. This situation reflects some underlying tension within the alliance, which may not convey a strong, united front to voters. In contrast, the BJP has not encountered similar issues with its alliance partners. The BJP plans to contest 68 seats, while the AJSU will field candidates in 10, the JDU in 3, and the LJP in 1. Notably, in the 2019 elections, the BJP did not have any alliances, and this could be a significant advantage for them this year. And this arrangement could be the ultimate game changer this time.

Examining the trends in Jharkhand’s assembly elections, smaller outsider parties like the JD (U) and RJD have seen a significant decline in their performance. In the first assembly election, the RJD secured 9 seats, followed by 7 in the next election. However, its performance dropped to 0 seats in 2014, and it only managed to win 1 seat in 2019. In contrast, the regional party AJSU has consistently struggled, remaining below double digits and never exceeding 5 seats. But it has managed to sustain itself around those numbers every election. Among the major parties, only the BJP and JMM can claim significant influence. The Indian National Congress has consistently positioned itself as a second-place party and an alliance partner with the JMM, never coming close to taking the lead in Jharkhand. In this election, Congress appears to be following the same path as in previous elections.

As Jharkhand approaches its sixth assembly election, scheduled in two phases on November 13 and November 20, 2024, with results to be announced on November 23, the stage is set for a closely contested political battle. It will be fascinating to see which narratives and issues prevail and who ultimately emerge victorious. For the BJP, however, capturing power will largely depend on its ability to penetrate the Adivasi voter base.

(Author: Chhotelal Kumar, PhD Scholar, Centre For Political Studies, JNU New Delhi. Email: Chhotejnu19[at]gmail.com)

References

• Abhishek Angad. (2024, November 7). Decode Politics: How BJP vs JMM war has hit a flashpoint — “infiltration” to royalty row. The Indian Express. https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/decode-politics-bjp-vs-jmm-jharkhand-assembly-elections-manifesto-9657467/;
• Abhishek Angad. (2024a, November 2). In Jharkhand battle for tribal vote, BJP rides on conversion, JMM-Cong play Sarna card. The Indian Express. https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/jharkhand-elections-tribal-votes-bjp-jmm-cong-sarna-card-9650044/
• Bureau, T. H. (2024, November 6). Jharkhand Assembly elections 2024: Key dates and candidates. The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/elections/jharkhand-assembly/jharkhand-assembly-elections-2024-key-dates-constituencies-candidates/article68832503.ece;