Ukraine War, Peace Proposals and India | P. S. Jayaramu

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war began in late February 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which President Putin described as ‘special military operations’ to demitarise and denazify Ukraine’, claiming Russia has no design to occupy the country. The Russian invasion was also a counter to Ukraine’s plan to join NATO with the intention of encircling Russia. The international community, under the leadership of the United States, did not accept the Russian justifications for war and began to rally around Ukraine to thwart Russia’s designs, with memories of the Russian annexation of Crimea dating back to 2014. The West was determined to halt Russia’s march to Ukraine and began beefing up Ukraine militarily under the resolute leadership of Zelensky. That the war is now in its third year shows clearly that Russian President Putin had grossly miscalculated thinking it would be a short and swift victorious war. He grossly underestimated the degree of NATO’s involvement and support to Ukraine in repelling his invasion..

While this is not the occasion to go into an analysis of the Russian motivations behind the war and the Western intention to use the situation to further militarily contain Russia, keeping in mind the death and enormous destruction that Ukraine has suffered during the course of the war, the focus of this article is to analyse the efforts being made globally to terminate the war and bring peace to Ukraine.

Survey of Peace Proposals

It is useful to recall that the very first meeting was held in Belarus on 28th February 2022 itself, just four days after the Russian invasion. Expectedly, the meeting ended inconclusively with delegations from both Russia and Ukraine returning to their capitals for instructions. The second, third, fourth and fifth rounds of consultations took place in March in Turkey leading to the Istanbul Communique outlining provisions for Ukraine’s security guarantees by declaring Ukraine to be a neutral State, putting a limit on its military and making Russian and Western countries, including UK and US, as guarantors to a ceasefire agreement as a prelude to peace. It looked as if peace would dawn on Ukraine but the talks failed by May 2022 primarily due to the non-cooperation of the US which was bent on teaching Russia a lesson militarily as well as Ukraine’s burning desire of securing NATO membership. In such a situation, Russia was in no mood for a ceasefire, leading to peace. A case of missed opportunity.

The next noticeable effort in the direction of resolving the conflict came about in November 2022 at the G20 summit with Zelensky presenting his “10 Points Peace Proposal†to end the war. The key features of the proposal were: a) withdrawal of Russian forces, b) return of deported persons, c) prosecution of war crimes against Russia and d) reparations ( by Russia) as conditions for signing a peace treaty. Russia perceived the peace plan as directed against it and did not support the key features of the proposal. Several international conclaves took place in 2023, notably the two meetings in Copenhagen followed by the meeting in Jeddah with 40 nations participating in it, but all in vain.

Subsequently, China came up with a comprehensive peace plan with features like respecting the sovereignty of all under the principles of the UN Charter, abandoning of Cold War mentalities, ceasing of hostilities, resumption of peace talks, early resolution of humanitarian crisis, protecting civilians and prisoners of war, ensuring the safety of nuclear power plants, facilitation of grain exports, stoping of unilateral sanctions, and promoting post-conflict reconstruction. The United States perceived the proposal as one-sided, leading to the Chinese peace plan becoming a non-starter. Yet another case of a missed opportunity.

The latest Western-sponsored effort to end the war in Ukraine unravelled itself recently. Formally designated as ‘Summit on Peace in Ukraine’, the meeting was held in Switzerland on 15-16th June 2024. While 92 nations and 8 international organizations took part in the summit, Russia was conspicuous by its absence. The Joint Communique stressed the need for agreement on three themes: the safety of nuclear power and weapons, food security and exchange of prisoners and deportees. The Communique also emphasised the need for stopping of attacks on merchant ships in ports and along the entire route, uninterrupted supply of Ukrainian food grains to interested third countries and release of children and civilians by Russia. Since Russia was absent at the summit meeting, in all probability the proposal would remain on paper, though as of 5th August, 87 nations and 6 organisations had signed the Joint Communique.

While the above-noted efforts in mitigating the disastrous consequences of the war are a welcome feature, what is distressing to note is the manner in which Russia and Ukraine have continued their military offensive against each other almost unabated. Notable among them is the recent Ukrainian assault on Russia’s Kursk region. For the first time since the Second World War, foreign (Ukrainian) troops have invaded Russian territory, leading to thousands of civilians fleeing their homes. A very real setback to Russia indeed. Ukrainian President Zelensky observed that it is a lesson to Russia for invading its territory. While Ukraine may have no intention of retaining Russian territory, it might like to establish a buffer zone to prevent Russian cross-border attacks on its territories. Zelensky may also like to use Kursk as a bargaining chip in future negotiations with Putin towards any war-termination efforts.

India’s peace ‘efforts’

Against the background of the continuing war in Ukraine, it may be useful to take a look at India’s efforts to bring peace to Ukraine. Prime Minister Modi’s recent visit to Ukraine gains significance in this regard. PM Modi’s visit apparently had multiple objectives. Firstly, Modi wanted to assuage the feelings of Ukrainian President Zelensky who had expressed his disapproval of his Moscow visit in July and his embracing of President Putin. Modi more than made up for it by not only hugging Zelensky, but, even putting his arms on his shoulder, as the television cameras showed. Modi promised ‘as a friend and partner’ to help bring peace to the region, reiterating his earlier statement that this is not the era of wars. Though the visit was marked by cordiality, after Modi’s departure from Kyiv, Zelensky expressed his dissatisfaction with journalists about India’s purchase of oil from Russaia. Foreign Minister Jaishankar, however, explained India’s position on the purchase of Russian oil on pragmatic grounds. While Zelensky alluded to India playing a role in peace initiatives, he reportedly stated that only a country which had signed the first ‘Summit for Peace for Ukraine’ declaration can host the next summit, implying thereby that India which was not a signatory to the first summit declaration can not host the second summit. Photo appearances apart, there seems to be a trust deficit between Modi and Zelensky which is not a conductive factor in the present context.

Secondly, through his Kyiv visit, Modi wanted to soothen US President Biden as he was upset with his visit to Moscow around the time of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit. President Biden welcomed Modi’s Ukraine visit by saying it holds out a potential for peace in the region.

Thirdly, Modi achieved his objective of signing a few agreements to boost Indo-Ukraine bilateral trade, technology cooperation and a role for India in post-war reconstruction activities in Ukraine. Though Prime Minister Modi did not carry any specific peace proposal to Kyiv, as an influential leader of the Global South, India will, in all likelihood, be a player in any global efforts to bring peace to the war-ravaged Ukraine, as and when it happens. Needless to say, one of the basic prerequisites for any meaningful peace effort would be the lowering, if not removal, of suspicions between the two key players to the conflict—Putin and Zelensky. Equally importantly, Western Europe, the United States in particular, should adopt a cooperative attitude towards the peace project. Realistically speaking, clarity on US position in this regard may emerge only after the new regime is sworn into office. I reiterate what I wrote earlier that the key to a successful resolution of the conflict lies in Ukraine becoming a neutral country and a bridge between Eastern and Western Europe. ( P. S. Jayaramu, “The Ukrainian Crisis: Solution lies in creating a neutral Ukraine†Mainstream, 5th March,2022). Will the Russian and Western/US leadership display statesmanship to allow such a thing to happen is the million-dollar question.

(Author: Dr. P. S. Jayaramu is former Professor of Political Science Bangalore University and former Senior Fellow, ICSSR, New Delhi)