India Must Wake Up to A Destabilizing South Asia | Nandita Chaturvedi

The sudden ousting of Sheikh Hasina from power in Bangladesh has been shocking news to much of the third world. For the past few years, the stability and economic progress in Bangladesh had been lauded by economists and political theorists in India and elsewhere. Bangladesh was held up as a model for growth and poverty removal in South Asia. The nation had joined the Belt and Road initiative, entering into a fruitful relationship with China, while maintaining their trade relationships with India. Fifty years after their heroic fight for independence from Pakistan, Bangladesh had seemed to achieve economic and social stability. Indeed, this was evidenced by the increasing number of Bangladeshi middle class youth moving to Western nations for an education.

Yet, it is this youth that has spelt a recipe for instability in Bangladesh today. Images of young people in Dhaka taking over traffic signals, setting fire to police stations and posing for pictures with Sheikh Hasina’s personal belongings have flooded the news. The photos of young men with Hasina’s saris and holding up her blouse, sleeping in her bed are particularly ugly. One wonders at the lack of outrage at this public humiliation of a Muslim woman head of state. The student protestors went as far as to attack and set fire to the house of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, the same house where he was so brutally assassinated, along with his family, by agents of Western intelligence. All of this points to the fact that the leadership among these students do not represent the people of Bangladesh, but rather a small elite which is dissatisfied by the policies of the government. This elite traces itself back to those that opposed the liberation forces in Bangladesh’s war for independence in 1971. Once a violent movement is ignited, many sections who may have frustrations can join into the looting. This does not make the movement democratic, but only a vehicle for anger of lumpen elements.

The student protests of the last few months emerged out of opposition to a quota that granted a 30% quota in civil service and public sector jobs to the descendants of freedom fighters from Bangladesh’s war for liberation. This itself makes clear the ideological leanings of the protests.The quota system was introduced by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1972. Sheikh Hasina had already struck a compromise with protestors in 2018, when she agreed to abolish all reservations amid large-scale protests by students. However in June this year, the high court nullified that decision and reinstated the quotas after petitions were filed by relatives of 1971 veterans. The quota system was nevertheless amended to satisfy the students’ demands, yet the anti-government protests continued.

The reality is that the core issue is not limited to the question of the quotas, but has to do with the broader foreign policy of the Bangladeshi government in recent times. Hasina’s government has gotten closer to China, becoming a partner in the Belt and Road Initiative. It is no secret that the American elite views this as a threat. In a time when the rise of China has meant a direct ideological and technological challenge to the West, the US has tried to leverage South Asian nations, India in particular, against China, and promote disunity in Asia. Bangladesh remains a crucial part of the American plan to maintain control in Asia. Hasina’s government also repeatedly thwarted efforts to make Bangladesh part of the US led quad. Months before her resignation, Hasina had spoken about the pressures of the US government within Bangladesh, and their demands to build a US military base on Bangladesh’s St Martin’s island. It is important to note this would be America’s second military base in the region, the first being their base in Diego Garcia.

"If I allowed a certain country to build an airbase in Bangladesh, then I would have had no problem," she had said. She also explicitly stated that the offer came from a "white man". "It may appear it is aimed at only one country, but it is not. I know where else they intend to go(..)There will be more trouble," she had warned.

The tactic of manipulating students, especially those belonging to the elite and more Westernized sections of a nation is one perfected by Western intelligence at this point. The experience of Eastern European nations such as Georgia which were subjected to color revolutions must be looked at seriously as a model of operation for the CIA. The student protests in Bangladesh show many markers of a Western backed color revolution: a lack of clear leadership, an appropriation of ‘civil disobedience’ tactics, violent attacks upon institutions of the state. Further, the students have demanded that Mohammed Yunus be instated as interim Prime Minister. Mohammed Yunus is a man of little to no political experience, chosen by the Western elite as a ‘good native’ and rewarded with accolades for campaigning to open up Bangladesh to Western influence and money. He openly works with several organizations that are associated with the US state department, including the National Endowment for Democracy. The National Endowment for Democracy was an organization set up by the American state to explicitly advance the cause of ‘democracy the world over, which in American parlance is another way to say ‘regime change’ and ‘color revolution’.

The response of the American media which answers to the elite is instructive. After months of calling for ‘democracy’ in Bangladesh, they are welcoming the interim government. Reports have emphasized the ‘draconian’ response of the government to the protests, failing to mention the killing of police officers and the setting ablaze of government institutions.

What we are witnessing in Bangladesh is not a movement for democracy, but one that is against the democratic rule of the masses of Bangladeshi people. Whatever mistakes Hasina’s government may or may not have made, this movement seeks to destabilize the Bangladeshi state, which was hard won by the freedom movement under Mujibur Rehman. We must make no mistakes: there is no future for Bangladesh that can be built on undermining the legacy of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman. The majority of Bangladeshis know this, and his memory remains alive among them. Any such attempt will be to impose a dictatorship on the masses of Western capital in Bangladesh through the rule of a small elite.

Along with the events in Bangladesh, we must consider the coup-like conditions in Pakistan that led to the jailing of Imran Khan despite the overwhelming support for him among the people. His anti-west stance, and his friendship with Russia and China made him a target of Western intelligence. Further, 2022 saw protests in Sri Lanka, along with economic instability stemming from a loan taken from the IMF. The Western media had unfairly blamed China for their economic crisis. Lastly, Myanmar remains in flux at this time with the ousting of Aung San Suu Kyi. South Asia is passing through a moment of instability, and India remains the last nation with a strong state. We must not underestimate the dangers of this moment as the American elite becomes more and more desperate and tries to deal with the crisis within their nation. It must also be noted that this is not the first time an attempt has been made to destabilize South Asia. Mujibur Rehman’s assassination in 1975 was followed by the coup against Bhutto’s government in Pakistan and then his hanging in 1979. The progressive Sri Lankan government of Bhadranaike had already fallen in 1977, and the final blow was Indira Gandhi’s assassinated in 1984. This was all against the backdrop of growing unity among the governments in South Asia in the period after the Bangladesh war.

India must wake up to its responsibility for leadership in this moment, and work towards a peaceful Asia. A crucial step in this direction would be to resolve the border issue with China, and work towards mutual cooperation to build a stable region. Secondly, the demand for the Indian Ocean as a zone for peace, which was taken up by the peace movement, must be fought for once again. This would include working to dismantle the American military base in Diego Garcia. Lastly, we must look again to the legacy of our freedom fighters. The ideas and lives of Gandhi, Nehru, Tagore, Mujibur Rehman and Indira Gandhi remain the foundation stones upon which a peaceful and prosperous future for South Asia can be built. Any movement that attempts to undermine their legacies must be fought for the sake of our children.

(Author: Nandita Chaturvedi, a fellow at the National Center for Biological Sciences, Bangalore.)