French Politics In A Conundrum | Gouri Sankar Nag & Manas Mukul Bandyopadhyay

[There has been a long wait for government formation after the second round of legislative elections held on July 7, 2024, in France. The suspense continues and the left-wing ’Popular Front’ coalition with the most seats in Parliament after the snap legislative elections of 2024 is still hoping that Lucie Castets its prime ministerial candidate will be invited to form the Government. This note and footnotes have been added for better comprehension —Editor Mainstream]

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While everyone’s gaze in India was fixed on FM Sitaraman’s Budgetary Engineering in late July 2024 more than 6,600 kilometres away, in France, another robust parliamentary democracy was on the cusp of a new political conundrum. However, it wouldn’t be too much to compare the twin situations with the semblance that the regime in each case is facing a daunting challenge to navigate the shoals of a complex landscape with suitable policies.

France is a small country in Europe in terms of geographical size and population, albeit it is by far the largest country in Western Europe. Here our focus is not however on the topographic morphology of the country but the twist of its domestic politics that engenders a unique type of regime/coalition to put in place in France. Will it direct France and for that matter, the entire gamut of West European democracy towards a new plank of hope when war clouds and consequent migration crisis are out to threaten any possible roadmap of cooperation and security, is a difficult conjecture indeed. 

Nevertheless, since the Revolution of 1789, France is perhaps the only country that has undergone 16 constitutions under which many momentous experiments have taken place, all revealing the conviction of the people in this political axiom that a parliamentary government is a genuinely representative government whereas monarchical or dynastic alternative which often gets entwined in European context, is not. Not only that but democratic government must also be both parliamentary and republican in that the French system conflates the institutional form with a strong sense of individual rights and civic virtues. "The student of comparative government must, therefore, be prepared to assume that in France political democracy, the parliamentary system, and republicanism are for all practical purposes three interchangeable concepts.†[1]

The current Fifth French Republic is a hybrid form of parliamentary and presidential system of government. But the power of the President in the French Republic is so much that the outside world only recognises the Presidential election as the pivotal election of that country. However, in France, the parliamentary elections seemed to be happening so far behind sort of a veil. And however we may inflate the hype, the ordinary europids were not aware of the nitty-gritty of the European Union Election. 

But a tectonic shift has occurred in 2024. The Far-Right won the European Union election held in June with a bang [2]. Thereafter, snap elections were announced [3] and the first round of French parliamentary elections were held. Despite, not getting an absolute majority, the ‘National Rally’ [4], this time went far ahead of other political parties. The success of this party is just spectacular garnering support of one and half crores of the electorate. The ‘Popular Front’ of the left [5] also did quite well to be placed in the second row and the ‘Liberal Alliance’ of Emmanuel Macron with a centrist approach came up to the third row respectively. [6]

Interestingly, in contemporary times new trends and dramatic shifts are emerging to shape several prominent multiparty democracies of Europe like Italy. The case of France is a cogent pointer to the recent permutation. The Election campaigns in the first phase were directed at defeating the followers of Macron. But the subsequent twist was a jolt to the Far-Right that became conspicuous in the second phase of the election, as the ‘National Rally’ paved the way for entry into the veritable powerhouse. But to stop them, a ‘Republican Front’ was formed overnight between Macron’s party and the party of the Leftists with an expedient compromise between two fiercely rival alliances. Therefore, it is no longer a three-way fight. In constituencies, where the ‘National Rally’ is likely to win, the ’one against one’ strategy has been resorted to leading to the tough decision of withdrawal of 185 candidates of the two alliances from the election race.

Thus, the Left candidates reaped the benefit from the election. The final electoral outcome put the Left in first place, Macron’s coalition in second place and the Far-Right coalition in third place. [7] The parliamentary elections of France are a shining example to the world of how to defeat neo-fascism by making a larger democratic coalition. The virus of ultra-nationalism, xenophobic hatred towards culturally other—immigrants plus populist overtone in electoral rhetoric are the features of this neo-fascist authoritarianism. Hopefully, the democracy-loving people of India have much to learn from this model.

Of Course, it has a positive as well as a negative aspects. It should be remembered here that as a single party, ‘National Rally’ won most of the seats since the maximum (i.e. 32.05 percent) of the electorate voted for them [8]. A question may naturally arise here: how did the fascist-power become so powerful in the country of the great French Revolution? It will be understood if we look back a little to the past scenario of France.

The rise of fascism in France is not a new phenomenon. The seeds of this politics germinated in that country in the later part of the 19th century. This was followed by Hitler’s puppet government in Vichy during World War II led by Philippe Marshal Pentain. In the decade of 1970s, neo-fascism began to spread, thanks to Jean-Marie Le Pen [9], the father of present politician Marine Le Pen. Gradually their influence increased in France. [10] In 1986 Legislative elections out of a total of 577, Le Pen clinched 35 seats. The era of mass unemployment had begun in France by that time. Le Pen blamed rising unemployment on French immigrants. Since then, Far-Right politics has revolved around immigration in France and has triggered polarization. 

Though idiosyncratic, Le Pen began to receive the favour of the French mass-media for whipping up the emotive social issues like unemployment, poverty and so on. All these came to be included in the propaganda agenda of the party. The winner of the 2007 Presidential Election, Nicholas Sarcozy, presented Le Pen’s politics to the public in his political campaign. This was the first time that the racist political ideology of the Far-Right seeped into the mainstream of French politics. After that, Le Pen’s daughter Marine Le Pen took the stage shouting ‘the real fight has begun’ [11]. Marine Le Pen became the mouthpiece of the Right and Far-Right as Nicholas Sarcozy’s popularity waned. She reached the final stage of the Presidential Election twice in a row. Her party was renamed ‘National Rally’. The young Jordan Barnella was brought forward as a ’charismatic protege’ to ‘Le Pen’. In an attempt to establish direct link with the rank and file Marie Le Pen used to propagate vigorously “What we speak is actually the mind of millions of French people. They just cannot say the words†. The truth of these words finally proved factually valid when in the month of June, 2024, ‘National Rally’ won a convincing victory in the European Union Elections [12].

The Far-Right in French society is now a stark reality. The main thrust of their policy is to unlock an atmosphere of fear psychosis in French society. Their political strategy is to unleash the narratives of fear around any of the following issues leftism, immigration, feminism, racism, and unemployment. [13] [14]

Although the ‘National Rally’ was blocked in the elections of this year, the question is arising what will happen now? Most of the parties and their leaders in the Left-wing coalition are staunchly anti-Macron. Consequently soon after the results came out, the conflict between the Republican coalition sounded. A desperate shriek was perceived in the voice of hard-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon. "If someone proceeds with a rigid attitude, he will inevitably drown when he comes to the shore", he quipped. 

Thus today two roads are open in front of the Left. If they form the government at the call of the President and prioritize only their own programme, it is only a matter of time before they face no-confidence in the parliament, and the fall of the government is inevitable. The second path: Forming a government in compromise with the moderate Macron’s coalition. In that case, their political activities (which are the product of almost a decade of persistent anti-Macron tune) will be watered down. In that case, there is a possibility that both the political line of the left will soon lose credibility to the people. 

It may be noted that although he was in a bad position before the polls, during the polls, Macron was the biggest gainer. He got the Left alliance with him by creating fear of imminent fascist danger and successfully passed the boat of election ultimately. On the other hand, the responsibility of forming the government did not rest on him, but on Jean-Luc Melenchon’s coalition. Jean-Luc Melenchon, a flamboyant politician, must know that he has to be flexible with his allies, such as socialists, communists or environmentalists. He is incapable of taking any decision without considering the opinion of his coalition partners. The coalition partners have also made it clear that they are in favour of expanding the ‘Popular Front’ further in greater interests.

That is, after all, the composition of the political chessboard that has emerged with this parliamentary election in France. It is still cloaked because political dynamics might unfold the different consequences to unsettle things or to maintain the status quo of this new coalition in the parliament. 

(Authors Professor (Dr.) Gouri Sankar Nag, Department of Political Science, Sidho Kanho Birsha University, Purulia; Associate Professor (Dr.) Manas Mukul Bandyopadhyay, Department of Political Science, Chandannagar Govt. College, Hooghly)