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Mainstream, Vol 62 No 29, July 20, 2024
Challenges faced by the Congress Government in Karnataka | P. S. Jayaramu
Friday 19 July 2024, by
#socialtagsJuly 18, 2024
Quite undeniably the Congress Government in Karnataka is facing multiple challenges in the aftermath of the Lok Sabha elections results. The challenges have manifested themselves at the leadership level, in addition to the problems faced by Siddaramaiah and D. K. Shiva Kumar individually. Let me address them one by one.
Electorally, the Siddaramaiah Government is faced with the critical challenge of not being able to gauge the mood of the electorate going by its public pronouncements that it would get 18-20 seats in the Lok Sabha polls. That confidence was based on the government’s perception that the poor, including women and youth, were satisfied by the five guarantees it had provided to them and that being the beneficiaries, the women and youth would ensure a sizeable victory to the Party. But, the Siddaramaiah Government was in for a rude shock as the voters returned only 9 of its candidates, though the number going up from 1 to 9 was an achievement by itself. While the Congress leadership was aware of the historically different voter behaviour with regard to assembly and Lok Sabha elections at the State level since 1985, they were consumed by their perception that the trend would be different this time around. Hence,the disappointment.
The Lok Sabha election results also exposed the fallacy of the hold both Siddaramaiah and D. K. Shiva Kumar had over their own larger constituencies of Mysore and Channpatna electorate respectively. The victory of the BJP candidate Yaduvir Wodeyar from Mysore was a drubbing to Siddaramaiah personally. Likewise, the defeat of three-time MP Mr. Suresh from Kanakapura at the hands of the BJP’s Dr. C. N. Manjunath was a jolt to Shiva Kumar personally.
Additionally, the electoral defeats were compounded by the serious dent that the site allotment made by the Mysore Urban Development Authority ( MUDA) to his wife Parvathi has caused to Siddaramaiah whose enjoyed a clean image in his long political career. Whatever explanations the CM has come up with, clearly he is a weakened leader. Though of course, Siddaramaiah has appointed a one-man Commission headed by a retired High Court Judge to look into the MUDA scam, popular perception seems to be that it may be difficult for him to resurrect his image in State Politics. Additionally,tbe arrest of former Social zeelfare Minister Nagendra in a corruption case by the Enforcement Directorate ((ED) in the Valmiki Scheduled Tribe Development Corporation case shows that all is not well the Siddaramaiah Sarkar.
The recent dismissal by the Supreme Court of a plea made by D. K. Shivakumar to quash an FIR registered by the CBI regarding his disproportionate assets case has come as a setback to him, indicating that he continues to face problems poitically. This, coupled with the fact that as the Party President he could not ensure the victory of his brother in the Kanakapura (rural) Lok Sabha election has brought out the limitations of his political leadership. That is probably why he has been putting pressure on the Chief Minister to merge the Ramanagara constituency where the JD (S) is strong with the proposed Greater Bengaluru Constituency to help himself as well as the party Politically. Interestingly, Kumaraswamy who is presently a cabinet minister in the Modi Government has issued a statement that he would undo such a decision when he becomes Chief Minister again. Interesting developments politico-electorally to reap benefits by the contending Parties for power in the State.
The recent demand for three deputy chief ministers by some disgruntled, yet powerful, leaders within the Party, is to be understood against the background of a weakened governmental-level leadership. That the Party High Command has intervened and brought about a ceasefire is some relief to Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar, but that they are likely to face such demands in the not-too-distant future is worrisome to the CM and the DCM.
Furthermore, Shivakumar as the Bangalore Development Minister is going to face greater challenges in urban governance as his proposal for the the setting up of a Greater Bengaluru Authority has led to demands by Home Minister Dr. Parameswara and MLA Sharat Bache Gowda for Tumakuru and Hosakote respectively. Added to it, the talk of establishing a second airport within a distance of 60 kms from Bengaluru and tbe problems regarding its location are matters which need to be handled with care by involving experts in so far as urban governance is concerned. While de-congesting Bengaluru to make it climate-friendly is a dire necessity, developing near-by regions while at the same time retaining and inviting investors in and around Bengaluru is a complex challenge to the Siddaramaiah Government. The problems get exacerbated if we go by the State’s fiscal health. What is worrisome is that the Government has been borrowing adding to its debt burden. Karnataka’s outstanding liabilities rose from ₹5.22 lakh crores in 2022-23 to ₹ 5,81 lakh crores in 2023-24, with a projected increase to ₹6.65 lakh crores in 2024-25. The State’s fiscal profligacy, specially in the wake of financing the five guarantees is an unhealthy feature affecting severely its development curve.
The recent cabinet decision asking the private sector to reserve jobs for Kannadigas at all levels in the private sector ranging from 70 to 50 per cent leading to widespread disapprovals from key industrialists and the move to keep the issue on hold points to a flip-flop in policy pronouncement by the Siddaramaiah regime. Some of the local Kannada organisations have already warned the Government that they will have to resort to widespread protests if the proposal to reserve jobs for the locals is given up. Surely, the Government would be in a turbulent position either way, as the Andhra Pradesh and Kerala Governments have issued statements welcoming foreign investors to their States.
It safe to conclude that the Karnataka government is faced with multiple and complex problems within less than 18 months of being voted to power with a big majority. Needless to say, the Opposition NDA alliance consisting of the BJP and the JD (S) would do everything possible to destabilise the Siddaramaiah Government and create a situation for a mid-term poll to the State Assembly.
(Author: Dr. P. S. Jayaramu is former Professor of Political Science Bangalore University and former Senior Fellow, ICSSR, New Delhi)