Farmers’ Movement and Save Constitution Campaign Impact Haryana General Election Results 2024 in Big Way | Mahabir Jaglan

Haryana has 10 Loksabha seats where Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) contested all 10 seats, whereas, Congress contested 9 seats as a dominant alliance partner of Aam Adami Party under the umbrella of Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) in general election 2024. The result shows that both main national parties, BJP and Congress, win 5 parliamentary seats each. In terms of vote share also there is not much difference between the two, as Congress led alliance has got 47.6 percent votes and it is slightly ahead of BJP vote share of 46.1 percent. There is also a close call in terms of leads at legislative assembly constituency level as INDIA candidates have taken lead in 46 constituencies, whereas, BJP candidates are ahead in 44 constituencies. Apparently one may be tempted to draw a simple inference from this electoral statistics that these two political parties are almost equally poised in the state. But the trend of vote swing between 2019 and 2024 and socio-spatial analysis of legislative assembly constituency level electoral statistics brings out a different story.

In my earlier article, ‘2024 General Election: Farmers’ Agitation and the Reshaping of the Electoral Landscape in Haryana’ in Mainstream Weekly, May 18, 2024, I had contemplated that in Haryana agitating farmers and anti-establishment votes are likely to converge in favour of INDIA alliance candidates as regional parties are largely a depleted political force in the state. It was further hypothesised that the spatial dimension and intensity of vote convergence in favour of INDIA alliance candidates would be determined by the areas of influence of the farmers’ movement in the state against three farm laws of the Union Government. Now the question is do the spatial pattern and rural-urban differentials in voting behavior of electorate in 2024 general election in the state validate these hypotheses?

Regarding the first hypothesis, the election result data obtained from the Election Commission of India website reveal that Haryana has witnessed an amazing swing of votes in recently concluded general election. There was 12 percentage points vote swing away from BJP as its vote share has declined from 58.1 percent in 2019 to 46.1 percent in 2024. Sirsa parliamentary constituency which Congress won handsomely has recorded the strongest swing away from the saffron party (17.4 percentage points). Three other parliamentary constituencies, Karnal, Faridabad and Bhiwani-Mahendergarh, have more than 13 percentage points swing away from BJP candidates yet the saffron party retained them as it won them by a huge margin in 2019. On the other hand INDIA candidates have received 47.6 percent votes recording a huge swing of 19.2 percentage points in the favour of INDIA over the Congress vote share in 2019 (28.4 percent). The two regional parties claiming political legacy of Chaudhary Devi Lal, i.e. Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) and Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) have almost dissipated as the added figure of votes polled by them came out to be only 2.6 percent. The biggest swings in the favour of Congress candidates was in north-western constituencies of the state (Hisar 33 and Sirsa 24.7 percentage points) where apart from BJP INLD and JJP had a considerable political hold till 2019 general election. There is even about 3 percentage points vote shift away from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The credit for large scale shift in the political preference of people and the convergence of votes in favour of INDIA candidates, in this region in particular and the state in general, goes to the political awareness of farmers raised during the course of Farmers’ Agitation.

Haryana has 90 legislative assembly constituencies where 23 segments are urban (having majority of urban voters) and remaining 63 may be termed as rural constituencies. The breakups of electoral statistics in terms of lead of votes polled by candidates at assembly constituency level reveals an interesting pattern. In general, the BJP candidates have done very well in urban areas, recording lead in 59 percent urban assembly constituencies. But the saffron party has a dismal performance in rural areas as it could record lead in only 38 percent rural constituencies in the state. It indicates that the appeal of Prime Minister Modi has captured the imagination of a sizeable section of urban upper caste voters in the general election. Contrary to this, Congress has performed very well in rural areas as its candidates have surged ahead of its rivals in 62 percent rural assembly segments. But its candidates have a lead over opponents in only 41 percent urban assembly segments. The reason for better performance of Congress in rural areas is largely attributed to anger of farmers against the agricultural policies of BJP governments and increasing acceptance of Congress in peasantry following its disenchantment with BJP and JJP, the partners in state government for four and a half year.

Though Haryana is a small state, yet there is a marked regional difference in the electoral choice of the people in recent general election. The southern Haryana, comprising 23 assembly constituencies in the districts of Mahendergarh, Rewari, Gurugram, Nuh, Faridabad and Palwal, has an altogether different voting pattern than the central and north Haryana. It is not surprising that BJP candidates have taken lead in 65 percent assembly constituencies in south Haryana. Saffron party has recorded a big lead in 90 percent urban constituencies though it almost evened in the rural areas where Congress also has led in 54 percent rural constituencies. In south Haryana Congress candidates have fared poorly in urban constituencies and rural constituencies of Ahirwal region where the impact of farmers’ agitation has been negligible. However, in south Haryana also Congress candidates have established a sizeable lead in farmers’ agitation impacted rural constituencies of Nuh and Palwal districts.

Congress candidates have established a discernible lead in assembly segments of north and central Haryana, as here its candidates have surged ahead their rivals in 57 percent assembly constituencies. It is evident that INDIA candidates have recorded a bigger lead in rural areas (64 percent constituencies) than urban areas (35 percent) of north and central Haryana. Contrary to this, the BJP candidates have established lead in only 36 percent rural assembly constituencies, while this figure in urban constituencies jumps to 65 percent in north and central Haryana. In north and central Haryana the farmers’ agitation casts a big impact on the good performance of INDIA candidates in most rural assembly segments of Sirsa, Hisar, Ambala, Rohtak and Sonipat parliamentary constituencies and Bhiwani and Charkhi Dadri districts of Bhiwani-Mahendergarh parliamentary constituency. However, against the expectations, the impact of farmers’ agitation in Karnal and Kurukshetra parliamentary constituencies was quite feeble. It may be because of the confusion created by main farmer union, Bhartiya Kisan Union (Charuni Group), in these constituencies, as it had given a call to support the non-BJP, non-INDIA candidates.

Another statistic of great electoral significance here is that INDIA candidates have led in 13 out of 17 assembly segments reserved for scheduled castes in the state. This indicates that the ‘Save Constitution Campaign’ of INDIA has got a big traction in general and Dalits in particular. In fact, in the forthcoming assembly election in Haryana, the discontent of farmers against the agricultural policies of the Central Government and the ‘threat to constitution perception’ are likely to remain the big issues.

(Author: Mahabir Jaglan, Former Professor of Geography, Kurukshetra University)