The climb down of Humpty Dumpty what a relief! Democracy has survived in India | Vijay Kumar

The failure of the BJP to secure majority on it’s own is an unmistakable pointer that communal and divisive politics of the party, taken to alarmingly toxic level by the venomous speeches of the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, himself, has started giving diminishing return, and politics of vendetta by letting loose the investigating agencies against the opposition leaders is resoundingly rejected by the voters. Equally emphatic is the message from the voters that the authoritarian attempt to convert the democracy into one leader, one party, one religion and one language can not be tolerated in bewilderingly diverse country. The phony and contrived sadhana done by Modi at Vivekanand Rock Memorial has not done the miracle he was praying for.

With more than 272 seats, NDA, led by the BJP, may not have difficulty in forming the government. But the aura of invincibility of Modi is unmistakably punctured. Statistically, there may be an unequivocal mandate in favour of NDA and, therefore, there may not be uncertainty about the government formation. Even otherwise, The Constitutional Convention is well-established that the single largest party, or it’s group, has first claim for Govt formation. it is equally true that forming government third time in a row is a rare achievement – a feat only Pandit Nehru led Cong accomplished, though comparison is odious, as the congress under Nehru secured majority on it’s own, whereas the BJP is critically dependent on it’s allies. It is also a fact that gap between the BJP and the Congress, even after it’s remarkable resurgence, is of Himalayan magnitude. But, this otherwise seemingly favourable verdict in favour of NDA and the Prime Minister, Modi, is robbed of its sheen, if contextualised.

To begin with, there was no level-playing field at all. Second, the rule of fair-fighting was conspicuous by its absence. Third, the funds available with the INDIA group were grossly inadequate compared to trillions of dollars spent by the BJP. Fourth, the media was co-opted, and the electronic media was purchased by the government, and thus, acted as it’s agent. Fifth, the election was held in the backdrop of inauguration of Ram Mandir, with full-blown extravaganza and spectacle, with calculation that it would pay handsome electoral dividend to the BJP. The last, and most important, the Election Commission of India failed to discharge its neutral role as an umpire. The Election Commission of India, as an important Constitutional Institution, failed to live-up to its Constitutional duty. Regardless of the outcome of the final result, one thing is unmistakably clear that the credibility of Election Commission of India is at its lowest ebb. This constitutional institution of great importance and glorious tradition buckled under the pressure of powerful executive. It was guilty of conducting avoidably prolonged election in seven phases, and it miserably failed to enforce its own model code of conduct. It failed to act even in the face of shocking level of sectarian speeches spewed by the Prime Minister with all the venom at his command by demonising Muslim. No Prime Minister since independence indulged in crassest act of rabble-rousing, as Modi did throughout the campaign, through his hate speech and repeated lies. Modi lied, not once, not twice – not even thrice – but all the times, and this reminds me the title of one of the best sellers of Jacqueline Susann: Once is not enough.

If these contexts are appreciated in objective manner, the performance of BJP is hardly impressive. In fact, the drastically reduced margin of Modi‘s own victory in Varanasi underscores his moral defeat. Modi started campaign in presidential style with a slogan of “Modi ki Guarantee†. The verdict indubitably demonstrates that the “Modi ki guarantee†has not cut any ice with majority of voters.

Modi regime has played havoc with democratic institutions by reducing their autonomy. In particular, the heads of investigating agencies reduced themselves to be mice squeaking under the Prime Ministers and his consigliere, the Home Minister’s Chair. The Modi government annihilated deliberative democracy by arresting the journalists and writers, stifling the dissent and crippling the functioning of civil societies. In last ten years, he relied on showmanship and slogan. Showmanship and sloganeering are antithetical to democracy. Modi, perhaps genuinely, believed that democracy is all about election. The election, though important part, is only one aspect of democracy, and that is purely procedural aspect. The substantive democracy is known by its quality and diffused nature of deliberation and robust enforcement of rule of law by genuinely independent institution. Since Modi was obsessed only with electoral aspect, the backsliding of democracy has become undeniable reality during his regime. The most salutary aspect of 2024 result is that democracy has shown its resilience.

Once again, it is Indian poor who has shown democratic maturity by giving preference to bread and butter issues, like inflation, unemployment and shocking level of rise of inequality in last ten years. Compared to this democratic sagacity of downtrodden, the urban middle class and rich, despite education, allowed themselves to be swayed away by emotive issue of temple and rabidly sectarian speeches of Prime Minister Modi. I have been maintaining from long time, with unwavering consistency, that Indian democracy is sustained by Indian poor.

It is the result from UP that stopped the juggernaut of Modi led BJP. Here again, I have been maintaining since 2014 that UP cannot become hindutva’s laboratory, like Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, as its caste dynamics are extremely complex. Be that as it may, I salute the UP voters, particularly it’s rural and poor voters.

The most wholesome aspect of the results is that the Constitution will not be mutilated, as the B.J.P. has not succeeded in obtaining even 272 target, let alone two-third majority, required to carry out the amendment under Article 368. No less heartening is it’s inability to alter the composition of the Lok Sabha on the basis of population after delimitation exercise, which is due in 2026, as this would have amounted to penalising South Indian States for controlling their population. Similarly, “One Nation, One Poll†would have to be put on the backburner, which means that the Federal Structure would remain intact.

The most propitious outcome of the 2024 verdict, in my view, is the return of the Coalition politics. I had the occasion to dwell on this issue, and after conducting empirical study, concluded that coalition Govt is more democratic than one having brute majority. The coalition Govt is, by it’s nature and logic, is a sort of federal arrangement, and thus, secures democratic accountability through checks and balances. The Institution functions with more independence under coalition Govt, whereas it is tamed by the strong Govt.
While delineating the rise and consolidation of Judicial Activism, I had expounded in my first book: The Supreme Court of India: Policy Formulator or Active Protector?(2012) that Judicial Activism rises during the Coalition Govt , and self-restraint becomes the logic and para-logic in the face of the strong Govt with big majority. Thus, the 2024 verdict may result in institutional resurgence and regeneration.

The most gratifying aspect of the election result is the revival of opposition party/parties. The bubble of congress-mukt bharat, maliciously planned by Modi, has burst. The healthy and vibrant democracy need as much the ruling party as opposition party for it’s legitimacy .The election result gives the mandate to the ruling party for governance, and the opposition party to check it’s transgression. In this sense, the opposition party operates as an important countervailing force.

Will this historic verdict humble Modi--- an ultimate narcissist and megalomaniac?.This is very hazardous to predict, as Modi is temperamentally, and even viscerally, an autocrat.

Though this is a political article, yet, I would write it’s finish with a note of personal touch. Like others seculars, liberals and English-speaking anglicised intellectuals, I, too, has been suffocating from the last ten years, and now I can breathe fresh air.

(Author: Vijay Kumar, Senior Advocate, Supreme Court Of India. The Author of the recent book: “The Theory Of Basic Structure: Saviour of The Constitution And Democracy†)