“Modi-wave†Spells Electoral Setback for BJP! | Nilofar Suhrawardy

Hype raised about the so-called “Modi-wave†has failed to help Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) return to power with a thumping majority. Besides, numerous “masks†donned by Prime Minister Narendra Modi while campaigning for parliamentary elections failed to have the needed electoral impact on voters as BJP has not won 272 seats in 543-member Lok Sabha (Lower House of Indian Parliament) to form the government on its own strength. Not too long ago, Modi was confident of returning to power with more than 400 seats. Of course, BJP-stalwarts are going to take a long time in comprehending as to where did they err? But the simple message conveyed by Indian voters cannot be ignored. They are too smart to be taken for a ride by even the most powerful politicians in the country. “Success†displayed by Modi about his accomplishments during his two terms and promises spelled out for coming years failed to convince them. In their opinion, his government has failed them during the past ten years and it was time to give somebody else a chance. However, with BJP having won the largest number of seats, Modi is likely head a coalition government, with support of allies. Nevertheless, this also implies that the new government will be led by a much weaker Modi, whose dominance is expected to be much lesser because of BJP’s dependence on smaller parties to stay in power. Besides, BJP-led government will be facing a much stronger opposition than before, and it will be no longer an easy task for it to take its own stand on all issues. Rather than succeed in having its way on controversial issues, BJP may be forced to ignore them, succumb to its allies and/or be subject to strong voice raised on the same by opposition parties. This also implies that media-front will no longer be dominated by just what Modi and other BJP-stalwarts’ stand.

Certainly, Modi and his supporters were not prepared to face this situation. While campaigning, Modi went overboard to the extent of describing himself as “God-sent†for a “purpose†and that he was not “biological.†Modi apparently tried to elevate himself above all other politicians in the minds of voters. He didn’t succeed, rather stumbled by making his rivals and critics joke about this stand of his. Nevertheless, it cannot be denied that if BJP’s campaign didn’t rest primarily on Modi’s “image,†the party may not have won even 240 seats. This certainly suggests that Modi’s strategies did succeed but hardly to his and his party’s satisfaction. Where did they err?

Clearly, Modi and his supporters were over-confident about the impact of Modi-wave, which really carried little importance, as results suggest for majority of voters. It cannot be ignored, Modi did succeed in dominating media headlines at home and abroad on issues he viewed as important for electoral purposes. But even attention paid by him to his religious-card, particularly regarding the grandiose Hindu temple at Ayodhya, has carried little importance. His party failed to win even from the constituency (Faizabad, Uttar Pradesh), where the temple is situated. BJP has failed to win even 50% of seats from Uttar Pradesh, with the regional party- Samajwadi Party (SP) taking the lead here. In all probability, the voters saw through Modi’s “religious-show†at Ayodhya as his electoral propaganda and thus refused to be blinded by the same. Also, certain reports indicate that Ayodhya-show, paid little importance to grievances faced by people of the area. True, Modi went overboard in playing this card. Of course, he did succeed in gaining substantial attention at home and abroad. His primary goal was apparently propagating his image as well as status. But a card of this nature can yield gains only for a limited period. It is likely to collapse if it fails to spell any gains for voters. This is what has probably happened in Ayodhya and greater part of UP.

Besides, little importance was paid to economic grievances of people at various levels. Younger generation of Indian voters appears to have given substantial significance to this fact. They are agitated by issues such as unemployment, increasing inflation, the hard reality of rich growing richer, poor-poorer and so forth. Modi’s rhetoric, weaving dreams, mattered little for them. With two terms as prime minister, in their opinion, he had been given ten years to fulfil his promises but had failed them. It may be noted, extensive display of religious-card by Modi carried little appeal for voters more concerned about their economic problems. This probably explains the dismal performance of BJP in a key state in the Hindi-belt, that is UP. BJP leaders are probably most shocked by their poor electoral performance in UP. Religious-hype projected by politicians apparently carried little electoral importance for voters troubled economically and socially.

If opposition parties had not aligned and campaigned together on a fairly strong note, BJP may have performed better. In quite a few states, opposition parties’ alliance- INDIA-bloc and regional parties’ electoral fight was apparently guided by their campaign against Modi/BJP. Their primary aim was aggressively guided to be united to push Modi-led government out of power. Of course, the opposition parties have fallen short of their target. Yet, their least expected success has at least prevented BJP from winning 272 seats. Apart from UP, the anti-Modi strategy has also worked in limiting BJP’s success in southern India, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Punjab and several other parts.

Paradoxically, BJP leaders and supporters are also shocked as opinion polls as well as exit polls predicted a return of Modi with a strong majority. What can one infer? They believed these polls and were “over-confident†about their “success.†Seriously speaking, these can hardly be relied upon. With India home to numerous political parties and cultural diversities, it is practically impossible to secure a reliable opinion of any group for the political party they may support/oppose. Besides, there is no denying, voters don’t always give their actual opinion on who they support/oppose. Fear prevents quite a few from actually stating the truth about who they support and vote for. So even if these polls (opinion and exit) are actually genuine, there is no guarantee that they are really based on correct data.

What an irony, there was a phase, when it seemed Modi-wave dominated Indian politics and Indians’ mentality particularly in the Hindi-belt. In essence, this never really was the case. BJP failed to win even 40% percent votes in 2014 as well as in 2019 elections. Over-confidence, resting exclusively on Modi’s image appears to have failed BJP. Clearly, Modi-wave never really existed but a hype about it was certainly promoted through manufactured “news†and manipulated strategies. Voters woke to this hard reality when confronted by their economic grievances not being resolved by BJP-rhetoric resting on Modi-wave. Besides, opposition parties’ decision to give a strong fight to BJP has played a key role in spelling an electoral setback for Modi. This includes the marches undertaken by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, his parties’ seat sharing deal with other parties of India-bloc, joint-campaigns and so-forth. Modi himself was forced to stop making fun of Rahul Gandhi during his election campaigns. Overall, with this being an era of communication-boom, even semi-literate and illiterate voters may be viewed as smart enough to understand political language of leaders in the electoral fray. This is strongly suggested by their viewing Modi’s Ayodhya-card, including communal moves, as electoral cards and not religious. BJP’s dismal performance in UP further proves this. Simply speaking, when image/hype about a politician’s “wave†rests primarily on manufactured agenda, it cannot float for too long. It is bound to be pricked democratically and burst like a balloon as these election results indicate. There is nothing surprising about 2024 results having spelled a major setback for BJP and exposed the hype about Modi-wave. These results may also be viewed as a major victory of Indian democracy and secularism!

(Author: Nilofar Suhrawardy is a senior journalist and writer with specialization in communication studies and nuclear diplomacy. She has come out with several books. These include:— Modi’s Victory, A Lesson for the Congress…? (2019); Arab Spring, Not Just a Mirage! (2019), Image and Substance, Modi’s First Year in Office (2015) and Ayodhya Without the Communal Stamp, In the Name of Indian Secularism (2006))