Decoding the Momentous Significance of the Lok Sabha Elections Verdict, 2024 | Gilbert Sebastian

Perhaps, the greatest thing that we can observe about the verdict in the Lok Sabha Elections, 2024 is that the popular mandate has safeguarded the Constitution of India. The campaign of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP – Indian People’s Party) was clearly indicating that it wanted to get 400-plus i.e., a two-third majortiy in the 543-member Lok Sabha, the lower house of the Parliament so that they could change the Constitution of India in the direction of a Hindu Rashtra, possibly in the direction of a Presidential form of government, initially.

The INDIA alliance’s Campaign efforts were to safeguard the idea of India, the idea of ‘Unity in Diversity’ which the prominent anti-colonial freedom fighter, Jawaharlal Nehru had envisaged and to safeguard her liberal democratic Constitution and to preclude the establishment of a Hindu Rashtra (i.e., a majoritarian Hindu State). Well before this Elections, analysts like Yogendra Yadav had said that this election would be decisive to determine whether India is going to remain a liberal democracy or become a Hindu Rashtra, and whether there would be anymore Elections in the future. And BJP’s slogan was ‘Ab ki baar, chaar sau paar’ (This time round, 400-plus) was repeated ad nauseum by Hindutva politicians during this election. The projection of ‘Modi ki guarantee’ was an indication in the direction of having a powerful, unchallenged leader but people have emphatically rejected this demand. And probably, it is the Dalits (the outcastes/untouchables in the historical caste system of India) who have played a major role in this. They have decided that they need to continue to have the safeguards which are guaranteed under the Constitution of India. They wanted to retain their leader ‘Ambedkar’s Constitution’ and they have, indeed, given a decisive rebuff to the idea of changing the Constitution towards Hindu Rashtra.

This greatest success of the Lok Sabha elections verdict, 2024 being its ability to ward off the rise of Hindu Rashtra through an amendment to the Constitution of India, it has also been a significant victory for safeguarding the syncretic culture of India. This Elections was fought by the BJP on the single slogan of ‘Modi ki guarantee’ and even the Manifesto of the BJP was titled, ‘Modi Ki guarantee’. This slogan and ‘Brand Modi’ itself has taken a beating with the election results declared on 4 June 2024. 

This election results tasted like ‘honey from the rocks’ for the Opposition INDIA alliance especially because the ruling BJP party had not left a level playing field for the Opposition. The ruling BJP had their exclusive control over the three Es - the Enforcement Directorate (ED), the Election Commission (EC), and the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). The ED established under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), 2002 created during the tenure of Vajpayee-led National Democratic Alliance government in adherence to the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in 1999. The PMLA today, has become a draconian legislation under which Opposition politicians, are being investigated, harassed and jailed even during the time of the election campaign. Two elected Chief Ministers of states, Arvind Kejriwal, the Chief Minister of Delhi state and Hemant Soren, the Chief Minister of Jharkhand state were jailed just before the elections. Moreover, the Income Tax raids were also used to put pressure on Opposition politicians.

Prior to the Elections, the Modi-led government downgraded the status of the Chief Election Commissioner to that of a Union Cabinet Secretary and disallowed the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court from being in the selection panel of the Election Commission members. With that, only the Prime Minister, a Union Cabinet Minister and the Opposition Leader were part of this selection committee, giving a clear majority to the ruling party. During the election campaign, there was the unabashed use of communal rhetoric and hate speech by the Prime Minister himself whereas the Election Commission disgracefully failed to put a restriction on that.

The multiple technical possibilities of the ruling party manipulating elections through the EVMs were also widely discussed in the civil society in India. The bank account of the main Opposition Party, the Congress was frozen just before the Elections.

In spite of all these disabilities that the Opposition faced, this elections has shown that the people of India are capable of recognizing their real interests and are able to overcome communal polarization through rational thinking. The latest results and trends indicate that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP with 291 seats (i.e., 62 seats less than what they got in 2019) and the INDIA Alliance with 234 seats (i.e., 143 seats more than what they got in 2019) by the morning of 5th June.

Another very important thing that we have to recognize is that this was a very polarized election. That is why the tally of the Other parties, has come down to 18 (i.e., a reduction of 80 seats from what they got in 2019). Although the BJP and the Sangh Parivar (the Sangh family – an array of Hindutva outfits) wanted this Elections to be communal polarized, the actual process came to be one of political polarization. The consecration on 22 January 2024 of the controversial Ram temple at Ayodhya by the Prime Minister Modi himself, bypassing the Shankaracharyas, the Hindu head priests and the widespread use of communal hate speech against the Muslims was amply indicative of the intention of the BJP. Even in the Faisabad constituency itself, where Ayodhya is located, the BJP has faced a humiliating defeat.

And in this Elections, Tamil Nadu, Punjab and Manipur have given very decisive verdicts against the communal agenda of the BJP. Uttar Pradesh, the biggest state in India with 80 Lok Sabha seats which was known as the second most important Hindutva laboratory in India after Gujarat, also sprang a surprise by giving 43 seats to INDIA alliance and only 36 seats to the NDA. And in Kerala, the BJP has for the first time, opened its account in Kerala by securing one Lok Sabha seat in Thrissur Constituency. Suresh Gopi, a Malayalam film actor turned politician did it on a developmental plank and not a communal plank and yet this is significant because it is an ominous trend-setter which could pose a threat to the syncretic culture of the state. 

And it has been a significant victory for the INDIA alliance that they have been able to bring to the fore the real issues which are afflicting the people in their day-to-day lives, namely, unemployment, price rise, and neglect of the farm sector, Agniveer (translated as fire-warriors) i.e., the recruitment to the Indian military for a tenure of only four years. and communal polarisation and communal rhetoric took a beating. 

Now, one might say that the INDIA alliance has not been able to win a decisive victory by winning the magic number of 272 seats which is a simple majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha. In the evening get-together and Press-meet of the Congress on 4th June, however, they were more upbeat and confident as compared to the Modi camp although they were able to secure only 99 seats. INDIA alliance was able to make a dent on the image of invincibility of Modi as the most effective political communicator.

By contrast, even the celebrations of the Modi camp remained on a low key. The people have punished the arrogance of the BJP by not giving them an adequate majority. The BJP which has become the single largest party in parliament winning 240 seats (down by 63, from the 303 in 2019) i.e., well below the simple majority of 272. Therefore, the BJP will have to rely on its non-ideological partners in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), namely, the Janata Dal United (JDU) led by Nitish Kumar in Bihar with 12 seats and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) led by Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh with 14 seats and leading on 2 seats. The ideological difference of the TDP with the BJP can be seen from the fact that TDP had promised reservation for Muslims in their election manifesto whereas Modi had said that he would never allow it as long as he was alive. We could confidently say that Rahul Gandhi’s two yatras (political journeys) prior to the elections, the Bharat Jodo Yatra (Unite India Journey) where he walked across the length and breadth of the country, spreading the message of harmony as against the politics of hate and Bharat Jodo Nyaay yatra (Unite India Justice Journey), have become resounding successes. And we remember the slogan which Rahul Gandhi gave during the Bharat Jodo Yatra: Nafarat ke bazar mein mohabbat ka dukan kholne aayaa hun (I have come to open the shop of love in a market of hatred) and the slogan has gone down well with the common people who want to live in peace and harmony. In spite of the highly charged communal speeches delivered by Prime Minister Modi himself in different parts of the country from Rajasthan to Jharkhand, the BJP has not been able to make great strides on the outcome of the Elections. And some of the prominent, notorious faces in the BJP government have lost. They include Ajay Mishra Theni, Minister of State for Home Affairs. Smriti Irani, a woman Minister in the Union Cabinet has also lost from Amethi. Even Prime Minister Modi’s majority has also fallen significantly to over 1.5 lakh from although the temple town of Varanasi was a secure seat for the BJP and Modi had won this seat with a margin of over 6.7 lakhs in 2019. By contrast, Rahul Gandhi won in both Rae Bareilly and Wayanad seats with resounding margins.

On the other hand, the elections has also sent some shock-waves: Azad Samaj Party (ASP)-Kanshi Ram leader and Bhim Army founder Chandrashekhar Azad ‘Ravan’ was leading in the Nagina seat of Uttar Pradesh. Abdul Rashid Sheikh, a former MLA, who has been detained for five years in Tihar jail under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) has won the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat defeating the former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah by a margin of over one lakh votes. Amrit Pal Singh, a radical pro-Khalistan preacher who is jailed in Assam under the draconian National Security Act and Sarabjeet Khalsa, son of one of the assassins of Indira Gandhi have also won Lok Sabha seats from the Punjab, indicating the deep disaffection of the people against such draconian legislations. The common person in India should not be taken for granted because they can also have enormous political wisdom from their lived experience such as the trauma of governmental indifference during the Covid-19 pandemic and the pains of unemployment, price rise, and communal riots.

What is it that the general elections under the Indian parliamentary democracy offer to the people of India? The people are able to reject the government in power. They have done it in 1977 with Indira Gandhi who had become so dictatorial; and they have done it in 2024. It has not been easy to defeat Modi as compared to Indira Gandhi because Modi is the unchallenged leader of a Party backed by cadre-based movement led by the RSS which has created deep roots in Indian society, with a huge cadre-base. It operates on the idea of Hindutva majoritarianism. As the historian Ramachandra Guha says, Indira Gandhi was dictatorial during the Emergency (1975-77) but she was not a majoritarian like Modi. And she did not have the backing of a cadre-based movement like the RSS and its affiliates.

Notably, (Late) Prof. R S Rao had said told me in personal communication that the great diversity of India can be a safeguard against a fascist takeover in the country. Indeed, India also has an age-old great tradition of Multiculturalism arising from the life experiences of people of different faiths, languages and cultures living together for centuries. The effort of the Sangh Parivar to confront this civilizational challenge overnight through their politics of hate and Kautilyan tantra (tactics) cannot, obviously, be successful.

The fractured mandate of 2024, a government without adequate popular mandate and legitimacy will allow the Opposition in India to have a more prominent role. Indeed, a strong Opposition is very important for the health of a liberal democracy because it is the Opposition that could prevent despotism and misuse of power. This mandate may also give breathing space to the civil society and non-governmental organisations involved in relief activities. There may be some shift away from the servile role of the media, particularly, the visual media pejoratively designated by Ravish Kumar as ‘godi (laptop) media’. Could we also hope that the judiciary may also have greater courage to deliver justice under the Indian Constitution?

In liberal democracies, political parties and candidates operate on the basis of money power and BJP is known to be the richest Party in the world today. BJP turned affluent by measures like demonetisation which apparently enabled conversion of their black money into white and the electoral bonds which was designated by the Supreme Court as ‘unconstitutional’. And in this elections, they have used their money power to the full extent possible. And yet they have not been able to defeat the INDIA alliance although the two camps were not fighting the elections on a level playing field. This is very significant and should be appreciated.

That the election results were not contested by either the Opposition or the ruling parties, in spite of the initial apprehensions, is also significant fact. This has been the tradition since the beginning of the Republic of India. Since the first General Elections, both the ruling and the opposition parties, both the defeated side and the winning side, used to accept and go ahead with the outcome of the Elections. This is something to be appreciated even this time round although there have been multiple apprehensions over the servile conduct of the Election Commission during these elections.

The importance of elections is usually undermined by the Maoists on the left end of the political spectrum and also by the RSS- Sangh Parivar on the right end of the political spectrum. However, they do not recognize the fact that if elections, by any chance, are abolished in India, the phenomenon of democratic resurgence of the Dalitbahujans which you witness in India today since 1951 will be brought to a halt. This democratic resurgence is the reason why in most states, we have Chief Ministers from Other Backward Castes (former Sudra, the varna or broad category of caste which was supposed to serve the higher three varnas).

Even as 2024 is an election year for many liberal democracies across the world, there is an anti-democratic wave sweeping across the world today. It would not be misplaced to say that this anti-democratic wave is related to the crisis of capitalism itself across the world. In our neighbouring Pakistan, Imran Khan, the main Opposition leader has been jailed and the ruling party secured power. In our neighbouring Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina banned the Opposition party and retained power. In Russia, Putin has consolidated power and the main opposition leader died in custody under suspicious conditions. There are many other examples across the world. By comparison, India has, at least, preserved the seeds of democracy in Elections, 2024.

It is definitely true that we need to have a better democracy. We need to have a democracy which is not a top-down democracy, where the parties have to spend crores and crores of rupees to win the elections. Money power and the communal polarization operate in such elections. This is definitely not the ideal kind of democracy that we need to have. And yet we need to appreciate the fact that even this formal, nominal democracy that we have, offers some hope for the 140 billion of people in India. As Paul Baran & Paul Sweezy in Monopoly Capital (1966) say, in most capitalist countries, “votes are the nominal source of political power, and money is the real source: the system, in other words, is democratic in form and plutocratic in content†. That underlines the need to look for a bottom-up democracy. Bottom-up democracy would be a substantive democracy which will give power to the people, wherein people would have control over the economic, political and cultural resources of the land, as Istvan Meszaros pointed out. The Soviets in Soviet Union and the Communes in China sought to implement this under their ‘People’s Democracies’ but we now know that there was much left to be desired in these countries, as socialists like Rudolf Bahro himself in East Germany have pointed out. The Factory Councils in Italy during the time of Gramsci also sought to achieve its own version of bottom-up democracy. Even in India, during the Anna Hazare movement around early 2010s, the movement gave a catchy slogan that we need to empower the Gram Sabhas, even if it was an eyewash! The most important decisions in the country should go through the Gram Sabha i.e., the village assembly. This is true democracy. When there is election in a panchayat ward, there is little money power operating. You don’t need huge money for election campaign: You don’t need to run vehicles; you don’t need money for rallies, banners and posters; you don’t need to pay the ‘rally workers’ or give them biryani and booze. So in the Panchayats, there is a possibility of bottom-up democracy. This bottom-up democracy should be strengthened in India and that can pave the way for a bright future of democracy in India.

As of today, we have a formal democracy in India and even under this formal democracy, people have some power. The biggest power that the Indian Parliamentary Democracy gives to the people of India is, perhaps, the power to reject the government in power. And that is what they have exercised in 2024 by not giving a simple majority to the BJP. Now, the BJP will have to listen to their coalition NDA partners. Narendra Modi is not used to doing that as he always used to have a very comfortable majority, whether as the Chief Minister of Gujarat or in the Union government for the last ten years. So it remains to be seen he will fare or whether there will be a leadership change in the NDA. This is a kind of fluid and undecided situation today. But whatever has happened has happened for the good of Indian democracy. Forging broad alliances and winning over people from the grip of communal ideology have been the right combination of policies to counter a proto-fascist movement and INDIA alliance has done it. Three cheers to INDIA alliance and to the Indian democracy, nominal though it is.

(Author: Gilbert Sebastian, Assistant Professor, Dept. of International Relations & Politics, Central University of Kerala, Periya)