2024 Lok Sabha Elections: Looking beyond possible numbers | PS Jayaramu

May 14, 2024

We are in the midst of the elections to the Lok Sabha. The main contenders for power are the BJP, nay, Narendra Damodar Modi and the Opposition INDIA bloc, unofficially led by the Congress Party. Of course, assembly elections are held in Odisha, which does not generate much interest as the BJD led by the ubiquitous Naveen Patnaik is sure of returning to power. Andhra Pradesh, where voting took place on the 13th, is, no doubt, arousing curiosity as to whether Jagan Reddy will beat the anti-incumbency and return to his gaddi or the TDP-BJP along with the Jana Sena Party (JSP) will capture power.

Let me look at the central themes of the ongoing polls. BJP is constantly projecting the election as the need to bring back Modi to power to ensure stability, growth, to continue to mirror India as a strong player in the international system and the leader of the Global South. Towards that end, it is talking of a strong majority with 330 plus seats for itself and 400 totally for the NDA. Its hidden agenda is to take the country further down the Hindutva path, as Shashi Tharoor euphemistically calls “Hindutva, Hindi and Hindustan†, to usher in big constitutional amendments to serve its ends. The Congress Party believes and argues vehemently that it is a historic opportunity to the citizens to support it and the INDIA bloc to resurrect the Constitution and the Values embodied in the Preamble. The Party’s manifesto, titled ‘Nyay Patra’, described as its resolve to provide justice-social and to the poor, the women, the youth and above all to ensure communal and religious harmony. Thus, for the Congress it is a battle between two ideologies.

As for the campaign narrative, sadly, it is at its lowest ebb with Modi pouring venom on the Gandhi family and Rahul Gandhi in particular, addressing him as Shehzada. Midi’s warnings of Congress taking away the ‘mangal sutra’ of the poor women and taking one buffalo if they have two to appease the Muslim minorities are detested by mature Indians, including the minorities.

On his part, Rahul Gandhi is equally hard-hitting on Modi all the time. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra seems to be taking on Narendra Modi more vehemently, given her oratorial skills. She is attracting huge crowds wherever she goes. She reminds us of Indira Gandhi’s campaign style.

With the release of Arvind Kejriwal on interim bail, the INDIA bloc campaign has gathered steam. He has rattled the BJP and Narendra Midi asking it to spell out who will succeed Modi if he retires at the age of 75, as per the norm laid down by himself. Kejriwal has even been cautioned the voters across India that they are voting for Amit Shah who will succeed Modi. In a shrewd and calculated manner Kejriwal has kindled the possibility of ‘revolt’ within the BJP, though of course, both Amit Shah and Rajnath Singh have issues statements about Modi’s continuance as PM for the full term. Kenriwal’s objective seems to be to create a ‘halchal’ in the BJP in the event of the Party being forced to head a Coalition Government.

As for the narratives, the poll battle is clearly polarised along with the supporters of the two contending Parties ranged against each other. The media and sections of the academia too are largely polarised. The debates that one notices on the TV channels reflect the Polarised pitch. Most citizens, especially the youth, see it as both unwarranted and disgusting at best.

The poll projections that are coming out in the form of videos and write-ups in the print media are about how much the BJP and Congress/ INDIA bloc have lost or gained in the polling phases that have gone on so far and the possible extrapolations for the rest of the phases.

There are two sets of projections, in terms of numbers, going around. The pro-Modi/BJPwallas, are saying that the Party would get 330 and hopes to reach the 400 mark, which is clearly a mirage. For them issues like unemployment and price rise do not matter as the people are voting for Modi. On the other hand, those who are lined up with the Congress and the INDIA bloc, based on their constituencies’ visit, argue that the voters are directly affected by price-rise, food inflation and unemployment in both rural and urban India and that they are not so much swayed by the Ram mandir inauguration,etc. Projections are being made about the chances of victory and losses state-wise and region-wise. Yogendra Yadav, who is a prominent and pursuasive voice has talked of a fall in seats for the BJP state-wise so far and it’s effects on the regions/states where polling will take place in the remaining phases, pointing to a further decline in seats for it. His prognosis is that the BJP will not reach the majority mark on its own and may not be in a position to form the government again, though it will emerge as the single largest Party. A point that needs to be made at this juncture is that since this election is fought by the BJP wholly around the personality of Narendra Modi, whatever losses that accrue would mean defeat of Modi in them!! Perils of personality-centered elections that the BJP too brass must debate in its drawing rooms.

The above analysis apart, I like to make two points: 1. There can be many imponderables in electoral Politics, warning us of the dangers of predicting outcomes. It may be useful to remember that Churchill once said “prediction in politics is a notoriously dangerous game.†2. There can be an element of wishful thinking in the projections on both sides.

We need to go beyond the prism of electoral politics and look at the larger grim picture we are confronted with. Notwithstanding it’s propaganda, the Modi regime represents a truly centralised administrative machinery which is using the instrumentalities available to it to suppress democratic dissent, muzzle the press and/or use it to project its view, an aspect large sections of the media are ignoring. More crucially, the Modi dispensation has scant respect for the Opposition which is an integral part of our Parliamentary system. Also at stake are the rights of the States in our federal system. Citizens need to be aware of their historic duty to save Democracy and the Constitution as they cast their franchise in the upcoming phases.

One final point. While the BJP may remain a monolithic Party irrespective of the electoral outcome, the Opposition faces the imperative need of being together, in the event of its defeat, to play the role of an effective second pole in our Parliamentary system. It will have to carry forward the unfinished task of democratic consolidation, within a cohesive ideologial framework. Let us see how things take shape.

(Author: Dr. P.S. Jayaramu is former Professor of Political Science Bangalore University and former Senior Fellow, ICSSR, New Delhi)