Barack Obama and US-Pakistan Ties based on CIA-ISI Cooperation

In the midst of all the gloatings by a section of the media about the ‘success’ of the ‘aggressive foreign policy’ of India in the wake of the 11/26 terrorist attack in Mumbai, there is uneasy news for New Delhi as the Taliban is tightening its grip on a large part of Pakistan and has, in fact, taken over the Swat Valley which is five hours away from Islamabad. Although India is now looking towards America for help in her fight against the Pakistan-sponsored terror attacks and Barack Obama, the newly elected American President, has responded by saying that India has no greater friend than America, yet there are sufficient reasons to doubt the extent to which Obama can go given America’s strategic interests in Central Asia.

The Taliban is getting sustenance from Pakistan—from the Pakistan Government as well as many non-state actors operating from there—but any Pakistan-centric solution to terror attacks, as is being focused by the Government of India might be unrealistic as the Taliban draws its cadres from both sides of the Pak-Afghan border. They are mostly Pashtuns and it has now almost taken the shape of a Pashtun national movement, thanks to the destructive policies so long followed by America in collaboration with Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). The Taliban now views the terror attacks as acts of Armageddon, a fight to finish the evil personified by the Western civilisation.

After years of some setbacks, the Taliban has now resurfaced in Kabul and it is in fact controlling a substantial part of Afghanistan which is still the epicentre of the Taliban movement. Mullah Omar, the head of the Taliban, lives there. His long arm reaches well beyond the Pak-Afghan border, into Pakistan where his mission is being carried out by the Tehreek-e-Taliban being led by Baitullah Mehsud and his brother Hakimullah.

Behind Obama’s just-announced tirade against the Pakistan-sponsored terror against India, lies an interesting story. The previous Bush Adminis-tration in America had opened itself up to an offer from Mullah Omar for mutual settlement in Afghanistan. The go-between was the Saudi King Abdullah. Omar’s offer was that he would accept Hamid Karzai till a proper constitutional arrangement is found in Afghanistan through negotiations which would involve the Taliban too; the NATO forces would have to leave within a stipulated time and their place would be taken by a peace keeping force consisting of soldiers from some Muslim countries.

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It is clear that Obama has identified Pakistan as the centre of terrorist activities but he is yet to spell out his new Administration’s stand on Mullah Omar or the offer from the latter. Perhaps the time for it has not yet come. Will he opt for the Taliban overture? The Pashtuns are Sunnis and any settlement with them will give the American Administration tremendous advantage in dealing with Shiite Iran. India should not lose sight of the fact that America’s real enemy is not the Taliban, but the Al-Qaeda. Both of them are America’s creations. But the Al-Qaeda became a Frankenstein and ultimately tried to devour its creator. It is true that the Pashtuns are fighting the NATO forces in Afghanistan under the Taliban banner. But there is an attitudinal difference between the two organi-sations. What would happen if America tries to drive a wedge between the two? There are signs of it.

Given the complexities of the situation in the present-day Muslim world, attempts towards a solution might also take unpredictable courses and India’s foreign policy establishment has so far not been able to leave any mark that it is competent to handle such eventualities. Not even his best admirer would accept that Pranab Mukherjee is any foreign affairs expert. So is the case with Manmohan Singh and other top-level South Bloc mandarins. They have clearly fallen for the American bait without realising that even a well-meaning Obama cannot go against the strategic interests of his country that are so much connected with the Sunni sentiments. Moreover no one should forget, least of all the Government of India, the American role in Pakistan and Afghanistan in the wake of the Soviet Union’s invasion in the region.

Can Obama go full scale after the ISI of Pakistan which is now almost an autonomous organisation inside the Pakistan state? It might be difficult for him as the ISI, which still works in close cooperation with the CIA, is privy to many ongoing covert operations of the latter in the former Soviet republics in Central Asia. It is common knowledge that the most likely beneficiaries of the growth of Islamic militancy in Central Asia are the Anglo-American oil companies which are extremely active in the region in order to get control over oil resources and pipeline corridors out of the Caspian Sea basin.

It is to be watched to what extent the American Administration can rein in the ISI which has grown enormously in size mainly under US backing. It might be interesting to know that the ISI had become active, under former Pakistani President Zia-ul-Haq’s order, in destabilising the former Soviet Central Asian states much before the CIA, after Moscow had invaded Afghanistan.

The United States has now established a firm grip over the present power structure in New Delhi. There is no point in denying that the Manmohan Singh Government looks upto America for approval so far as major policy initiatives are concerned. However, New Delhi should not lose sight of the role the USA played in creating the monster which is now out to gobble up a very significant geographical entity which is a mute witness to the growth and development of civilisation since ancient times.

Before the Soviet Afghan war, opium production in Pakistan and Afghanistan was mainly of local character with almost no production of heroin. But things changed rapidly within two years of the CIA operations with the mujahideen. In the words of Alfred McCoy, an acclaimed expert on the subject, the picture looked like this:

The Pakistan-Afghanistan borderland became the world’s top heroin producer, supplying 60 per cent of US demand. In Pakistan, the heroin addicted population went from near zero in 1979….. to 1.2 million by 1985 ……a much steeper rise than in any other nation.

Thus a new element was introduced in the socio-political life of the Pak-Afghan border region under the active patronage of the ISI and CIA. Mujahideen warlords ordered peasants in Afghanistan to cultivate opium on a mass scale and drug syndicates in Pakistan ran hundreds of heroin laboratories. CIA finance and weapon supply for the Afghan mujahideen continued but arrangements for contraband trade were made to pump extra money in the scenario.

In this way an almost umbilical relationship was developed between the ISI and CIA. US drug enforcement agencies located in Pakistan turned a blind eye as the CIA had a bigger plan which extended well beyond the defeat of the Soviet forces in Afghanistan or even the break-up of the Soviet Union. Obviously the CIA was preparing for a post-Soviet break-up scenario and it needed active cooperation of the ISI in it.

Continuance of this cooperation serves America’s interests and it will be interesting to watch whether Obama would put a complete stop to it. Although Russia now expects easing of tensions between Washington and Moscow, the time has not yet come to pronounce that the former has given up its aggressive policies in Central Asia, Caucasus and the Balkans or is prepared to jettison Saudi Arabia so far as its foreign policy formulations are concerned. Although Russia has successfully dealt with the Chechen separatist movement, the American, Pakistani, Saudi Arabian and Somalian involvement behind indoctrination and training of the Chechen separatists and then massive arms supplies to these militants has left a bitter legacy in South Asia.

Barack Obama might be well-meaning but strategic interests of the country he represents could prevent him from adopting the right path. The Chinese business influence on various arms of the US Administration is another factor Obama may have to encounter if he wants to go all out against Pakistan. Islamabad has left no confusion that apart from America, China is its other big brother.